Steady stream of westerly energy

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd September)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday on the beaches, Monday desperate surfers on the beaches

Recap

Much better surf across all locations yesterday with an easing and weaker S/SW swell from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east as conditions improving into the afternoon.

This morning the swell has bottomed out, cleanest though windy on the beaches and to 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets. A new long-period and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due this afternoon and the Point Nepean wave buoy picked up the 20s forerunners last night but we won't see the swell until later this afternoon.

Sets to a very inconsistent 2-3ft are due on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east as winds shift more N/NW and ease.

This week and weekend (Sep 3 – 5)

This afternoon's inconsistent W/SW groundswell should hold into tomorrow morning with infrequent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 4ft to possibly 5ft to the east, then easing into the afternoon.

Later in the day our first pulse of tricky W/SW swell is due, generated by a broad but poorly structured mid-latitude frontal progression that's currently moving in from the west. A broad and weak fetch of W/NW winds through the Bight aren't of any significance, but a tight and stronger fetch of W'ly winds around an embedded low should generate some slightly better mid-period swell for later in the day and Friday morning.

The size looks to be around 3ft again on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets and 4-5ft to the east, but there'll also be some additional W/SW swell as the progression as a whole edges in closer tomorrow and Friday. This should produce more consistent sets in the upper range of the above sizes.

Looking at the local winds and the beaches will be best early tomorrow with a N'ly breeze, shifting more NW into the afternoon and strengthening. Friday looks best in semi-protected spots with a fresh N/NW-NW breeze persisting all day.

The swell will likely ease a touch early Saturday before a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell fills in, generated yesterday and early this morning by a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW-SW winds east of the Heard Island region.

Due to the distance between us and the fetch being better aimed towards the Bight the swell will be inconsistent but the Surf Coast magnets should see 3ft+ sets into the afternoon, 4-5ft+ to the east as winds hold from the W/NW, shifting SW mid-afternoon.

Sunday looks better for the beaches with a N/NE offshore and easing inconsistent W/SW groundswell from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively on the sets.

Next week onwards (Sep 7 onwards)

As touched on Monday, the longer term outlook revolves around broad and strong frontal systems pushing up and towards WA under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough. With the fronts projecting north-east towards WA, they'll then be on a south-east track when approaching us with no major size due at this stage, and coming from the westerly direction.

Under this pattern winds will persist from the north-western quadrant but with no major size for the Surf Coast. We may see the progression pushing east and more favourably towards us later next week, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 9:29am

Surfing in your 5km - open invitation for everyone. Good luck sticking a fine to someone.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 9:42am

Certainly mixed messages.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 10:29am

Headline:
Destination Schoolies: Push for school leavers to lead coast’s post-virus recovery.

Local Rag Geelong Advertiser and Victorian member for Polwarth (encompassing a fair bit of the Great Ocean Road from Anglesea to the SA border) are touting the benefits of marauding teenagers descending on our coastlines for schoolies this year. Batten down the hatches - I might impose my own self isolation.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 2:24pm

On the other hand, the gladwrapped cars might keep their surfaces safe from COVID

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 6:25pm

I was more alluding to the inability of drunken bullet proof teenagers social distancing. With a bit of luck it might not be an issue by then. I'll still be keeping my distance.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 6:25pm

and parking my car in the garage.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 3:40pm

Agree on the teenagers/transmission, more reason to keep incognito for longer, actually recommended to me by one of the kids too
And as for the car, most valuable car furthest into garage ha!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 10:41am

Hopefully, the forthcoming mid period swells have more energy than yester'd arvo Craig, sure it was rideable but no guts, dribbling it's way to shore. The morning looked OK but work got in the way as usual.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 3:00pm

I thought yesterday arvo was really fun on the beachies I surfed. Clean, straight and offshore. And yes I'm hoping the next week or two will at least give us a taste of the winter we never really had. Northwesterly quadrant winds and a bit of swell sounds good to me, even if it isn't big. A bit of sun and warmth in the air is a bonus.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 5:41pm

Yeh wm, some of the beaches were probably ok but to be honest I'm a sand snob these days. It's pretty rare that I'll go looking for sandbanks, usually only in summer when I'm getting totally desperate. I think it stems from countless hours, traipsing all over sand dunes on the Hoaxy, PI and further East in my younger years, sure it can pay-off but in a numbers game, reef/rock have provided a much better hit/miss ratio for my surfing experience.

Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 8:05pm

Ahhh yes WaG , when's the winds from the east , we all surf the least

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 10:41am

Has there been a rule change on the Mornington peninsula regarding surfing within 5km of your address?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 10:42am

Yes you’re allowed to surf within 5km of your house

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 12:08pm

cheers.goofyfoot..where did you get the info that says you can i want it to show mr policeman if i get any grief.certainly cant afford a $1600 fine seeing dan has deemed my job no essential and plus wifee would kick my arse..

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 12:43pm

Surfing Vic Instagram and MP news have a story on it

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 12:52pm

thank you geek..... finally a bit of sanity has provailed......

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 6:25pm

that has been the case since the beginning .

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 7:05pm

Not sure about that

A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog Wednesday, 2 Sep 2020 at 6:50pm

Saw the article in the MP News.

Coppers decided that surfing was recreation not exercise and therefore fineable.

Govt now says surfing is ok.

Coppers must have thought CV19 fines were the new KPI.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 5:30am

Maybe we should just nuke Melbourne if they are gonna complain for the next two years

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 6:29am

Ha!
NWS indeed providing a steady stream of energy...

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 8:19am

Maybe if swellnet stopped posting wave of the day pics with land marks in the background we wouldn't have to be so harsh on the Melbourne trolls. Talk about exposure!!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 8:36am

What? You mean like Winkipop, Bells & 13th? That's pretty well all they run from around here.

Shshhhh........don't tell anyone! They're secret

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 8:46am

NWS. I recall you getting snap happy a few times in the last month or so..

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 9:25am

I've got hundreds of photos on my phone from the last 2 years I bet you don't know where they were taken because I don't post them online with landmarks in the back ground. I'm talking about the more secret waves outside of mainstream towns. Who gives a shit when you're not popular enough to make money from the pics anyway

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 9:41am

You only have 100’s?

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 10:08am

Here's a challenge for you NWS...go back through the last 20 waves of the day. Name the wave based on landmarks alone. Also rate them from known breaks to lesser known (on a scale of 5 being secret to 0 being known world wide). I don't reckon you'll make it past 5. Many of the waves shown are tightly cropped. Others that have landmarks are either very well known or if they aren't the average punter couldn't guess them anyhow.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 10:29am

Here is a challenge for you icandig. Jump onto instagram and check out swellnet's instagram but keep the info to yourself. Just don't be like ringmaster naming locations around Torquay and anglesea

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 10:38am

Challenge completed. Your turn.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:31am

Have you been surfing Firm and Hards with the never ending winter plumber

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 10:42am

I’m confused, NWS are you a fan of swellnet or no?

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:07am

Swellnet not too bad but they could be better in regards to posting pics and screenshots of the surf cams during swell. Can't blame them for posting the most detailed forecast because that's what they are here to do. Back when you did not have to pay to read the forecast notes I really did learn a lot in these forums. If you spend a lot of time on the internet and go explore with google maps it's really not hard. Nearly all the best waves I surfed over the last two years I've discovered through the internet I don't know the names of these places but I will never forget where they are and lucky the average punter will never be able to work out what conditions the "secret" waves work in. Hopefully next week you need to subscribe to view SN forums

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:25am

Come on NWS, we're all average punters here.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:44am

I’ll second that ha ha

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:46am

This virus has really proved that you lot in the city will spoil places like Torquay by surfing peaks with more then 6-8 ppl in the water when there are not enough waves coming through. The locals here are no better for giving a solo surfer shit when he chooses to travel and surf on his own. If I had no mortgage and kids I'd start thinking about moving 5km to the coast if you really are a true surfer. Shit may get real bad if the queenslander's start testing more ppl and we get a second wave

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 12:56pm

"City folk will spoil Torquay". Lol. You're a genuine muppet. Torquay as a place to live is already cooked with its housing estate design.
And as has been proven during covid with the still busy surf breaks, helluva lot of locals surf down that way and will continue to get into surfing, so good luck ever having many breaks with 6-8 people on them, city folk out there with you or not.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 1:33pm

I surf around here with less then 6-8 ppl a fair bit not the mainstream breaks but everywhere in-between. If it becomes so crowded with the housing estates that have popped up in the last 6 years now is the right time to simply tell people to fuck off. Or even better just burn them

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 1:43pm

Fascinating tell us more

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 1:48pm

"blah blah now is the right time to simply tell people to fuck off. Or even better just burn them"

How are your fighting skills BWS???

There's a few unhinged units around here that thrive on that sort of stuff. Better be careful what you wish for.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:11pm

I'm usually pretty careful with who I burn around here, don't need to tell me that ringmaster. It got pretty crowded in march/April sometimes it can be hard avoiding the locals at de rok when it gets like that

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 1:50pm

I wish you well in both options you pursue. Also worth congratulating you on owning the ocean and the region surrounding it, mighty fine asset that is yours and nobody else's.

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:03pm

You’re ridiculous

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:50am

The people who pay SN for a detailed forecast are the average punters!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:57am

You are such a flog.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 12:06pm

Oh come on, GF, he's a true surfer.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:25pm

Surely he's someone taking the piss?

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:31pm

who said NWS was a he?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:32pm

Those guys are normally humorous though

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:47pm

I don't know he or she got annoyed that ringmaster named winkipop, bells and 13th that's pretty funny to me

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 3:14pm

I usually don't reply to people here and everyone has their own opinion but the rules are pretty clear now

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 6:40am

The plug plug has been surfing in your 5 km radius at the drug pier and at Mitch Buchannon's Marina.
Thats a secret spot

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:32am

I hope swellnet doesn’t post a wave of the day at those spots!

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:23am

Leaked doco from the gvt looks shite for Melb surfers
Indicates stage three will still only allow for local exercise and only stage 2 will allow travel. Stage 2 only happens at 5 cases or less which seems near impossible based on where we are today and what we’re seeing in nsw
Hope it’s wrong.
Also says in stage 3 you can exercise with others but can’t travel. That seems absolutely non sensical. You’re much more likely to spread this thing by being with others versus travelling solo to your home preferred exercise location
Really hope this changes

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 11:47am

Is there even a thing as a secret spot anymore? Maybe some places are less known than others or some places are more difficult to access or are more dangerous to surf and are therefore less popular generally. I can’t Think of anywhere that’s a really genuine secret spot. Of course that may be because I don’t know about them because they are so secret!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:36pm

Please keep up the good work NorthWestSouth, it's people like you who make it so enjoyable to read/take part in these forums!

Thank god there's still true surfers like yourself out there, keeping Torquay core.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:45pm

I wish I could change my SN name to "the core-lord"

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 3:46pm

It seems everyone on SN changes their name at some stage

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 7:12pm

Maybe NWS is Viclocal?

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 7:52pm

No chance Stok There are differences! Viclocal is harsh but at least entertaining while NWS is just sad.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 8:31pm

Haha

Thanos S's picture
Thanos S's picture
Thanos S Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 2:43pm

Good point Ninja, I think "secret spot" is a phrase the ol timers use. Historically they existed till as late as the 1970's I've heard.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 4:40pm

Yep as a bona fide old timer, I can tell ya Swellnet and their wave of the day exposed and ruined everything. Damn you Swellnet! Please take all your cameras down and never post any pictures ever ever again. Also, could you ask Google to get rid of that map thing - that's not helping. While your at it, ban the car. You should only ever find waves by walking, pushbike or horseback...and oh yeah this fucked forum thing -idiots leak secret spots on here all the time. I just heard about one guy surfing mysto spots with only a few people out - apparently they are "everywhere" in between the mainstream breaks. Just don't tell anyone - I don't want people finding out about them.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 4:25pm

I thought Richard Loveridge's book did it before the internet even existed.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:22pm

Too true Warri S.

I had to go digging around in the cupboard, but here it is.
" I feel there are very few places left in Victoria that can be regarded as 'secret spots', and 'aggro' towards newcomers is often
unwarranted".
Richard Loveridge: A guide to the surf beaches of Victoria.

I hope you realise I was taking the piss. Sometimes my humour doesn't translate...or I'm not as funny as I think I am.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:22pm

I've still got that book too. Some good pics of a young Browny ripping it up.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:24pm

All of the little sketches are pretty cool too.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Thursday, 3 Sep 2020 at 7:53pm

long range forecast looking tasty

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 7:47am

Another sunny day in yuppieville Torquay

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 9:32am

Well that was a good start to Friday! Obviously not epic but super clean chest to head high low tide reef runners with a manageable crew out ticked the box far as I'm concerned.

A bit more consistent would have been nice but......

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 4 Sep 2020 at 9:36am

Great stuff.