Deteriorating weekend, light for later next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st August)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday morning, desperate surfers Surf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
Recap
The surf started small and weak yesterday morning but strengthened a little through the afternoon as winds remained offshore for protected spots on the Surf Coast. Today looks a little better again with fun and clean 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, poor to the east.
We should see a better mid-period SW swell filling in through the afternoon and reaching the 4ft+ range across the Surf Coast swell magnets and 6ft+ to the east as winds hold out of the W/NW.
This weekend and next week (Aug 22 - 28)
This afternoon's increase in SW swell was generated by a polar front initially projecting towards us but then pushing more up towards South Australia and less favourably through our swell window.
This is a result of a low pressure system forming south-west of Tassie, moving north through today. This will actually cut off the infeed of swell generating winds, and the flukey fetch of S/SE winds wrapping around the southern flank of the low now looks to be aimed more west and into South/Western Australia.
This will likely result in a drop in size through tomorrow morning, back from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east, and the change will be delayed a little which is a plus.
Strong W/NW winds should favour protected locations until mid-late morning, then shifting strong W/SW-SW.
The change will also see a small fetch of strong S/SW winds projected up and into us, generating some additional windswell into the mix through the afternoon though likely not above morning's size.
As the storm as a whole moves slowly east on Sunday and Monday, winds will remain onshore, strong from the SW on Sunday and more fresh Monday, with a slim chance of an early W'ly around Torquay Monday.
The swell will drop in energy though with easing stormy waves Sunday from 4ft or so on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, down from 2ft+ (max) and 3-4ft respectively Monday.
From here, conditions should improve for the Surf Coast Tuesday through the end of the week, but swell wise there's nothing significant on the cards.
A weak polar front moving through our southern swell window on Sunday should produce a small S/SW swell for Tuesday to 2ft or so on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east, likely maintaining this size Wednesday. A morning W/NW breeze will shift SW on Tuesday, NW tending more variable Wednesday.
Longer term there's some hope for a better swell generating frontal progression moving in from the southern Indian Ocean and under the country through next week, strengthening on approach to us later week.
This looks to bring a moderate sized W/SW groundswell event next weekend with favourable winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Take a look at the synoptic chart's crew, a very attractive outlook, possibly a return to the standard type of Southern Ocean Winter, one with a conveyor belt of aggressive low pressure systems......oh, come on baby! Bring us the goods.........please!
Fingers crossed :-) It's been sheeeet.
I doubt it will get any bigger then what we got in March/april maybe slow 3m of swell. Next weekend will be as crowded as easter. Lots of kooks around on brand new boards
Another day, another negative comment from NWS.
It must be tough being able to surf n all......
Frodge, it's been absolutely crap on the Surf Coast all lockdown. The long one not just the last 3 weeks.
If it has been surf able it's been 2ft and very inconsistent at best, with the exception being the the last two days where it's been really cold, 3-4ft, and very wonky. And on those days it's been packed, filled with teenagers or early 20s surfing in big groups.
There's not a lot to be happy about. Hence the negative comments by NWS.
I’m not highlighting the poor swell season, more just the poor attitude, post after post.
We’ve got enough to bring us down, don’t need NWS comments on top.
But a 2’ grovel would be epic about now, would even come close to session of the year..
Infections are on the way down Frodge, numbers looking really good. (Of course, I hope all the people being infected are OK). It's working. Chip le Grand did a really good article in the age showing the genomic sequencing and spread of the virus - Vic had it pretty much under control in May before it got past the quarantine - now numbers are falling in a similar fashion. We can overcome it once more.
What this means is that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, hang in there, you are most welcome when this is finished, have a surf and recharge.
Surf quality has not been on par for winter while you've been away. Things will get better.
Well said VJ. Hopefully you can jag a few good quiet sessions while we're cooped up here in town. If I can't be on it, I'd rather someone out there getting waves. Looks like there's a bit to work with this week if you keep your expectations in check.
Thanks Bnkref, I'll look a bit more in the week. Walks have been good but I still freak a bit if there's a bit of a pack on a peak so have been trying to find the alone waves close to home. I've got out a few times, but not too many. There's been funny moments, like when I said "I'm going to make the most of these small conditions and the lockdown and go every day" and then went out and copped a fair whack from the board on the first session, keeping me out for over a week... It's always the way... the wheel of Karma...
In the meantime, I've got businesses I want to start after this so have been learning heaps. It's nice to have the time and say "right, I'm doing this" and not let life get in the way. Wrestling windows drivers this afternoon. Stoked to see the Juc lads and their carbon boards!
And this is the thing. Surfing can be a shared experience, and some of the fondest memories I have include being nice to the learners in a lineup, telling them where to adjust their weight (so many times too back foot for modern shapes, get your shoulders and head over the front foot) or where to look and point, and then they jag the wave of their life going straight, right across a green wave at one of the lesser spots and come back and thank me. For you guys to do the lockdown (twice) and get through it, I don' think there's an event in my adult life that has shook things up so much. September 11? - although further away. So yeah, I'm expecting you all to have Perth levels of froth (1ft beachie, closing out, 40 out) for a while. You guys will get through this, you will be able to say "I lived through a city lockdown". Looking at the rest of Oz and rellies on the West Coast, life sounds almost back to normal locally, no widespread virus and we can do this too. It might get hectic and I'll probably hang back further when it opens to avoid potential outbreaks, but there will always be a little wave with 1/2 a bit of shape somewhere...
"I lived through a city lockdown" in a city that looks back 70km across the bay at the city of the lockdown. Sorra does have a established crane, maybe thats how we got a guernsey..
https://media.tenor.com/images/c25ba5e1674ad2c48f4fcdd94c9fe777/tenor.gif
Yeah you guys copped it, hope you get some when you can.
If the MP is included in a metro lock down again after this one I’m moving to the island
You must have missed my comment last week after scoring 3-4ft beachie on wed/frid. The Wednesday surf was the best one I've had for months, friday I had to wait and surf with a few people not complaining
Ha,
I recon your shit days sound like our good days on the MP.
Surfing, Boating and Golf were all the Go during Stage 3. Zero reports of outbreaks amongst Surfers over months of the most crowded Surf I can remember. Focusing on People that don’t have Corona rather than those that Do is the reason we’re in this Mess. NSW has focussed on Outbreaks and Isolating those that Test positive, not Masking everybody and Banning Surfing. NSW was in a much worse situation than VIC when COVID was in it’s early days and has driven numbers down to single figures. VIC has had the Longest and most Draconian Restrictions of any State in Australia YET it’s the Basket Case. If Dan Andrews followed the model NSW provided esp in relation to Nursing Homes we wouldn’t be in this Mess. So anyone advocating and supporting the Ban on Surfing is Deluded at Best and in denial of the Real measures required to Limit the spread of this Disease.
The article VJ refers to earlier on makes it pretty clear that it was hotel quarantine that let the cat out of the bag. Nursing homes are another story, but as far as broad community transmission goes they don't seem to have been the main game, plus they're a federal government responsibility and the feds were warned about it months ago and yet did SFA.
I don't know anyone supporting any ban on surfing, but I support the travel restrictions stopping people from high risk areas travelling to low risk areas, including if you're traveling to surf. Why Geelong has escaped Stage 4 with more active cases than most of Melbourne is truly beyond me, too. Heaps of people from Geelong and Armstrong Creek have been surfing throughout the surf coast the last few weeks.
Surf Coast managing to get through with virtually zero cases is all the proof you need that outdoor activities are no risk with the virus.
After everything we've seen I'd tend to agree with this. Though Tango's point of restricting travel between infected and uninfected areas also makes sense, for those situations where people go that bit further, ie Woolies afterward to grab a snack etc
Here's the surf coast figures - been sitting between 4-6 for a few weeks. https://covidlive.com.au/vic/surf-coast
And it's pretty much all in 3228 Torquay/Juc etc.
https://covidlive.com.au/vic/postcode
Not sure there's much proof for low risk of outdoor activities there, though, Dx3. Possible, though just as likely to be dumb luck.
C'mon mate, 4-6 active cases at one time in last 2 weeks, for a grand total of 18 cases across 4 months, in a shire with 32,000 residents + the guaranteed people who have moved down permanently to their holidays homes last few months (I know it's not allowed but it's happened).
If you can't see that 18 total cases in 32,000+ residents in 4 months means the outdoor lifestyle presents little risk, then you're the type who will advocate us to be locked down for another 6-12 months.
Keep the pubs, bars, restaurants closed or limited, keep people working from home, sure do it. But let us out and about once we get on top of this 2nd wave like the rest of Australia is currently doing!
When someone labels someone a kook how can they be certain that they aren’t the real kook!
Because the kooks are on brand d new $800 boards but they cannot get to there feet when they attempt to paddle for a wave. This weekend is gonna be fuked. I hope I can get away and surf epic waves on my own
"If Dan Andrews followed the model NSW provided esp in relation to Nursing Homes we wouldn’t be in this Mess"
What model was that Dr Surf? The Newmarch House model? And you do realise aged care is a federal responsibility and the National Cabinet pandemic plan expressly outlined that it wasn't a state responsibility.
Outdoor activities aren't that dangerous per se. It's all the associated activity that's the problem. People travelling together in cars, staying overnight, going to cafes, and drinking in pubs needs to be minimised, especially amongst the chief spreading demographics 20-40 year olds.
Admirable sentiments generally VJ, especially in relation to giving tips to learners and in relation to 9/11 etc. Yes its been a pretty crap winter down this way, but Ive been lucky enough to score numerous small clean beachies around the place. I am eternally thankful to be down this way and be able to go for a surf during lockdown, not stuck in Melb. Can't say I'm looking forward to the crowds when lockdown ends, but I'II understand. Hopefully the next couple of weeks improves. Stay positive people.
Totally, I tend to scale quality on being raised in Scarborough's beachbreaks, and those 2ft days even at Juc are at the 'epic' level every single time. It's clean, it peels at less than warp closeout speed, the bottom doesn't drop out of the takeoff, etc, etc. People can't understand why I froth so much on the little stuff. (Though: Scabs is great to learn to get up really quick, you need cat-like reflexes, and learn to pull into the tube - useful for down south)
My bigfoot senses are tingling... I predict an extension to the 6 week lockdown....I can smell it on the wind
116 cases today.... huge drop. Let's get it done Vic, stay the course the next 3 weeks and we'll all be feeling the stoke soon enough! That first taste of saltwater...my god will it be sweet - I don't care how many crew are out!!!
It's going to be interesting to see what decision the Andrew's govt makes Oceanbeach. The effective reproduction rate in Vic is currently 0.7 (lower in Metro Melb, higher in Regional Vic). If this is sustained, new infection cases will be around 50 by 13th Sept and the Deputy Chief Health Officer has stated that stage 4 will not end before daily new case counts drop to "single digits or at least low double digits". The week ahead will be pivotal. With new case numbers forecast to be under 150 (today's around 130-140*) Govt will be hoping contact tracing teams can get on top of anybody exposed to infected people and drive that effective reproduction rate down to 0.5. If this doesn't happen, it will be a very tough call to extend stage 4 (as opposed to move back to stage 3) given the mounting mental health and economic impacts.
VL, I understand from previous posts that you have been frustrated by the actions of 20 somethings. I'm not excusing the behaviour by some , but I believe our Melb based young people are particularly impacted by Covid and need our support [no or limited work, no social contact outside social media which in itself can be very negative (just look at comments above about great waves down south last Wednesday when all melb metro readers are doing it tough), heavily disrupted education options etc]. Personally my wife and I have struggled to steer our (15 yrs to 19 yrs) kids through this with one of our kids progressing from eating disorder to self harm to suicide watch over the duration of Covid. Spending your days in fear of saying something to you child that will cause her to self-harm even more, or worse, end her life is traumatic.
We all have our burdens to carry, but people are doing it tough right now and all of us choosing kindness over judgement will make it easier for us all to get through this.
* Just saw new counts came in at 116 today. One day doesn't make a trend (yesterday's actual of 208 compares to its forecast of circa 150). But hope is all we have.
G’day Nolan sounds like you've been dealing with some difficult times there and without the pressure release of being able to have a surf which sucks, I've kids in the age range you mention and understand the toxicity of social media. Norman Swan was talking about the extension this morning on coronacast suspecting that an extension is likely, he's been wrong before though not long ago he said Geelong was about to be in stage 4.
Sorry to hear about your youngster. Went through this about 4 yrs ago. Keep talking, have hope, and show your love. It will get better. All the best.
All the best Nolan and best wishes to your family. Our kids are slightly older and everything got paused for them, this situation will pass and the young will get to spread their wings again.
So tough to hear Nolan, stay positive and all the best in helping steer your teenagers through this.
Crikey, Nolan, good luck getting through that, hope it turns out positive.
Speaking of bigfoot
This stuff has been getting me through this. How did I not find it sooner? The kids were all over it almost a decade ago.
Yeah Big Lez is a classic
In Torquay there are a lot more 'old' people walking surfing going out in groups getting coffee. Lots of old blokes are still working even though they have been told to stay home on jobkeeper tradies working in groups on contruction sites.... I think us 20 yr Olds have been doing the right thing in Torquay. Bit hard to tell who the real locals are though. Generally the kooks doing the wrong thing are from the city
What's your definition of 'old'? Anyone over 30?
'Kooks doing the wrong thing'..........that'd be you wouldn't it
IMO anyone can be old. 65 is pretty old 67 even older. I don't like anyone 'older then me' setting a bad example. Talking to Apollo bay COPPA down at gibbo's seemed to think Torquay crew are doing the right thing heading down south to get away from crowds. No travel restrictions for us..
Sorry to hear about your struggles Nolan.
Young crew have been hit hard in terms of their livelihoods and prospects but they've largely escaped the health consequences. It's a reality that 20-29 year olds are the most infected demographic, followed by the 30-40s.
The party in the uni dorm being an example of an event that will keep Melbourne at stage 4 even if numbers drop. I know it's shit for young people but the message needs to go out that behaviour needs to change until a safe vaccine is found. Parties, pubs, festivals, etc simply can't happen for 6 months at a bare minimum. That's the new normal, or else Melbourne will be back in stage 4 by November.
I have a question about the lower numbers we’re seeing.
Is it because fewer people are getting tested compared to a week or two ago when numbers were much higher?
Makes sense that fewer people tested will see fewer confirmed cases no?
Also makes sense that fewer people feeling crook will mean fewer people getting tested.
Yep
This is spot on. Despite the panic and fear the media love with their reporting, few testing results doesn't mean the worst... it likely just means majority of people don't have symptoms so they don't need to go get tested.
Add to this Andrews claiming that "if anyone has cold or flu-like symptoms they probably have the virus, as the flu isn't around this year"... overwhelmingly statistically wrong Dan.
60,000 odd tests over 3 days last week (people with symptoms hence why they went to get tested), yet only 600 odd positive cases. So 99% of people with cold and flu like symptoms have cold or flu, not Covid.
Of course nobody calls him out on this blatant fear porn.
Facepalm.
The intention is to make sure people get tested if they have symptoms. If you have a sniffle it's probably not the flu as there were less cases of the flu than covid in July. Its that sort of thinking, that its just a cold or the flu, that got us into this situation. And that sort of attitude that will put us back here again.
It's not supposed to be fearful, it's just supposed to reinforce the importance of testing.
But he's saying if you have a sniffle you've most likely got covid, which we can see isn't correct on 99% of cases.
I can just see lower testing numbers being another reason to extend lockdowns, when lower testing could very well be a sign that very few people are unwell, whether that covid, cold, flu whatever.
DX3... you have no idea why people are getting tested and what you're saying is if you have a sniffle you most likely don't have covid which minimizes the risks and gives people an excuse not to get tested. That attitude is at best ignorant. And if everyone thought it we'd be fucked again in three weeks time.
Stop trying to point fingers and use your head.
"people with symptoms hence why they went to get tested"
Rubbish Dx3. There's a shitload of asymptotic people who are getting tested because they work in high risk industries, came in contact with covid 19 person, or went to a venue where there was an outbreak.
Your idea that the 60,000 people who were tested have the flu is a nonsense.
VL you’re probably my best chance at getting an answer to my earlier question.
Are they testing less now than they were a week or two ago when numbers were higher?
goofyfoot. Test numbers today were over 20,000. They've been higher but not by a massive amount. The decline in positive results is significantly greater than the slightly lower number of tests, so lockdown is working.
Expect to see a further decline in numbers over the next few weeks.
When lockdown is eased, the numbers will either go up/down/ or remain the same depending on the collective intelligence / stupidity of Victorians.
It's a bit of both goofy. When they were getting 700+ cases a day, they were testing up to 40K/+day. It's now in the low 20K/day, and they are getting 100-200. So even if we multiplied the 20K/day to 40K/day, assuming no change to actual infections, it would not be as high at the peak. And yes, maybe less being tested for less symptoms, or other reasons. Truth probably lies somewhere between. My 2c.
I reckon the testing today would be a lot better targeted than 6 weeks ago. Authorities know where the risks are and would be targeting people who have anything to do with places like Frankston hospital. You could expect an increase in the percentage of positive results with improved targeting. Seems like Stage 4 is working. Just hope people don't get a bit silly when numbers keep dropping, because it's fricken obvious what happens when people drop their guard.
Thanks VL and VJ
And the surf is... still crap in Vic.
Hot and sunny here in Croatia with heaps of punters from various nations enjoying the summer.
No waves but eye candy galore!
And no Covid fear. It's so nice.
Cheers and have a great day.
How low flying you madman? How do you see all this eye candy from the cockpit?
There's a reason why views from the cockpit has so many pairs of aviator sun glasses. And it's not to keep the sun out of his eyes when flying.
To slip under the radar I keep as low as I can without my tongue hitting the ground.
And mirror sunnies are the best ;-0