Lacklustre winter continues
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 20th July)
Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, keen surfers Surf Coast Wednesday morning, Thursday afternoon and Friday on the exposed beaches
Recap
A fun weekend of small to moderate sized waves depending on exposure to the inconsistent W/SW groundswell energy with favourable winds for the beaches though a little blowy Saturday, more so Sunday before winds shifted more NW.
This change in wind is linked to a cold front moving through, bringing a fresh increase in mid-period W/SW energy today to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy and 3-5ft to the east.
A trailing fetch of strong SW winds behind the front should see the size kicking to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a shift in winds to the SW and strong.
This week and weekend (Jul 21 - 26)
Our lacklustre winter (in regards to the Surf Coast) is set to continue over the coming period with no real significant swells flagged at all for the week and a bit.
The front moving through today has no real push or strength to it, but a broad fetch of trailing SW winds behind it should see the Surf Coast kicking to 3-4ft this afternoon and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a strong SW change.
The swell should then start to ease back through tomorrow from 3ft+ or so on the Surf Coast (possible stray 4ft set on the magnets), and the 5ft range on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be average across most locations with a moderate to fresh onshore SW breeze, W/NW early-mid morning across the Surf Coast and S/SW-SW into the afternoon.
There'll also be some inconsistent long-range groundswell energy in the mix tomorrow, but not above the size of the close-range SW energy.
Wednesday will be smaller with the swell dropping back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east with similar winds, best through the morning on the Surf Coast for keen surfers.
Thursday looks smaller again with inconsistent background swell energy not likely to top 2ft on the Surf Coast and with a W/NW tending variable wind. The beaches could be fun into the afternoon as winds go variable with infrequent 3ft+ sets.
The models are incorrectly combining this long-range energy from the Indian Ocean with the existing mid-period energy, though we may see the rare 4ft'er on the magnets east of Melbourne into the afternoon.
Friday will be great on the beaches with a N/NE offshore and mix of very inconsistent swells easing from 3ft+ or so on the Mornington Peninsula, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.
Unfortunately the weekend will be small to tiny though winds look to remain favourable for the beaches, but the models diverge on this owing to a tricky and broad area of troughiness moving through. So check back Wednesday for a clearer idea.
The lack of swell is due to the Long Wave Trough being continually focussed in the Indian Ocean and across Western Australia, with us being on the downward track of the incoming fronts. This is resulting in inconsistent long-range energy but with generally favourable winds.
We may see a node of the Long Wave Trough move in through early next week, possibly bringing an increase in westerly energy mid-late week but more on this Wednesday.
Comments
Geez. Rotten again!
This is becoming laughable, no major swells for over a month now and we're in the middle of winter, seems impossible for the rest of the season to be a continuation of this shit.. I need help
Ah well........been great conditions for golf lately.
I blame Dan Andrews for those East Coast lows. NSW and Queensland pumps, Indonesia pumps, we get fuck all snow and small onshore waves.
Those lows spinning around the Southern Ocean are going on strike as soon as they enter the Vic Swell window. Those storms are like the Richmond Tigers with 935hpa centres to the west of WA. By the time they pass under Margaret River, they are almost completely gone, and the lows are shittier than the North Melbourne Kangaroos. Then they move into the Tasman Sea and start performing like the Geelong Cats. It's fucked up.
It's cement but there's plenty of base building snow in NSW as well :-)
Now you're just rubbing it in belly. Thredbo got 85cm from that ECL and Victorian resorts (that are open) got fuck all.
If Queensland or NSW readers didn't understand that last footy analogy, we are having a Brisbane Broncos ski and surf season.
I never did like Canberranians
Did anyone mention that the water is already sub-13 degrees......? Wind chill at 4pm yesterday was 0.5 degrees. If the surf's pumping then who gives a flying about the weather, but this is ridiculous. C'mon Huey.
You complaining about the temp? I thought we’re doing alright considering mid/late Aug is the low point. Never hot warm like previous two Summers just past either. Mild Summer temps and Mild Winter temps.
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I second that!
Any comments from local's outside of lockdown re. crowds? Saw some pics of 13th yesterday and there were more than a few surfers out there....
Be interesting to see when some swell rolls in.
I had a quick look from the carpark today and the standard of surfing was putrid. It wasn't the regular crew. Fair enough if it's local beginners having a crack in poor surf, but if it's Melbourne people coming down, they ain't welcome.
Hopefully the police can do a sweep of the carpark issuing fines. And if the good old boys in blue aren't patrolling, the burnings are ready and waiting. So Melbourne crew, don't bother coming, you'll get no joy at best and possibly a $1650 fine.
Can't imagine Melbs crew would be down there now. There'd probably be a bunch at holiday houses waiting it out, but surely the day trippers have stopped. Pretty sure there's a checkpoint on the freeway too....always seems to be a red section on Google maps.
So yeah...just 'locals'.
Hard to tell until you get in the water who is out there. The holiday home people aren't welcome either. They were told to stay in their primary residents and not go to their holiday homes, so it's absolutely fine to burn them too.
you big bad man VL
Hardly goofyfoot!! But in all seriousness, there's a lot of local surfers down here with elderly parents that they love. They have mates / kids / partners with compromised immune systems through no fault of their own.
So when someone from Melbourne comes down, after they've been told not too, and puts loved one's lives at risk, you can hardly expect we'd roll out the red carpet for them.
PS I hope you get 3 weeks of howling north westerlies and flat surf over your way!!!
You need to be careful of that growing cluster in Geelong more than anything VL, they must be close to joining us in the lockdown
Drysdale and Grovedale West schools just closed since Sunday night - a case at each? 12 Cases Colac-Otway shire, 5 more Geelong going to 13, still 1 Surfcoast and none new for a while. Things are getting closer now. Good luck VL, you have stayed on message the whole time. Still keeping heads down here.
I completely sympathise with regional VIC - the 'Melbournian's not welcome' mentality, and the rest of Aus, but unless you do a hard lockdown, it's going to get out and about.
Thanks Velocityjohnno.
A mate of mine who is a bit of a science boffin and micro-party candidate said that Australia could easily stop this virus by shutting down the country's borders completely in January. I thought this was too extreme and the economic costs would be too high. I've had to do a mea-culpa and admit I was wrong and shutting down the borders in January would have been a very good policy.
I'd have no objections in solidifying the lockdown boundaries at Little River. Only people to get through are medical professionals, fire fighters, police, and corrections officers. People can call that extreme, but in hindsight, I reckon in a couple of weeks it will be like my mate's January national borders policy.
Hah! Of course you'd have no objections, you're on the right side of that fence....couldn't see it working though.
I also am skeptical that a January hard border closure would've worked....surely it would've found its way in somehow eventually.
Be interesting to see in a year or so's time, if NZ stays truly Covid free.
The work colleague I work with lives in Torquay and other people live north and east up to 70km away...not to mention the other 350 people onsite at the moment. There is a truckload of tradesmen traveling to metropolitan Melbourne for work then back home to regional Vic. So be careful what you wish for dickflop.
"Hah! Of course you'd have no objections, you're on the right side of that fence...."
Not for my work.
stok, I've taken a big financial hit from Covid 19 and the best way to reduce the long term economic impact is to aggressively fight the medical problem now. Unfortunately the people who want to open up the economy in the short term can't see the long term economic costs.
It's all about eating the smallest shit sandwich, and I'm happy to have a harder lockdown, take a short term financial hit and say bon appetite.
VL. Hindsight thoughts - If we were go back a few months and just go hard lockdown similar to NZ, would we not be looking for the smallest shit sandwich?
We would have eaten it by now and been able to wash the taste out with a beer or two at a safe pub.
Perhaps, but if what’s been said as ‘conceivable’ by Vic’s CHO turns out to have been true, then the general public could have done everything correct and we could have gone hard lockdown also, but still been screwed due to poor mgmt of the quarantine hotels.
Anyway, for what it’s worth I hope the surf pumps for the locals next few weeks and they get their fill of quality winter surf, as I’ll be desperate to get back down when it’s allowed and hope there’s a few waves shared for a surf starved city lad! (And no, I’m not currently travelling to surf or looking for loopholes to work in my favour)
Good man Dowdy, It will be business as usual when/if restrictions ease. There's a handful of Melbourne regulars at my local break and they get plenty of respect. Time in the water counts more than where you were born.
Fucken hell, VL!
Make your mind up....
It would not have worked. There would have to be no international trade in or out of the country at all for a hard lockdown to stop Rona.
Not great that you've taken a big hit from this VL, but your outlook seems to suggest you have enough in the coffers to maintain lifestyle sometime yet. But that's a guess. I do feel for tourism, hospitality, aviation etc....there'd be some people on a knifes edge at the moment.
I'm taking a more open minded approach...call it a 'we don't know what the F@#k is going to happen approach'. I find that anyone who tries to predict long term economic trends invariably gets it wrong. The ones who get it right, still get it wrong. We're very much in short term land at the moment. No one has any idea if hard lock downs, elimination, herd mentality, suppression or whatever else term is bandied about will actually work. And if the economy will recover, or falter big time.
I do like the er on the side of caution approach...less deaths/ICU admittance etc. so, I'm mostly with you - but I'm not so sure.
Personally I feel the ability to manage outbreaks without throwing up all the stops, coupled with some form of rapid testing, is the future we need. Unless of course there's a vaccine....and we can somehow convince the problematic 20-30% of the population who are anti-vaxxers to take it.
Managing the outbreak could be masks, or it could be a actual contact tracing system that works. Or isolating the vulnerable.
The elimination approach puts too much weight on a vaccine...which is at least 18-24 months away (don't you love/hate how Covid's been a thing for like 4 months now at least...and that timeframe hasn't shortened at all!). let's see how the economy tracks along with minimal to no tourism, hospitality etc. for another 2+ years.
Stok, One thing that is really obvious is the economy can't recover when the number of infections keeps going up. It crushed confidence and if numbers get way out of control there's also a real risk that people will refuse to work in unsafe places. Just watch what happens with teachers in the USA over the next few weeks as summer holidays end. Many are going to take the very rational decision and refuse to do face-to-face teaching. That will massively stall any recovery in the USA.
The virus in Victoria is spreading at places of work: pubs, factories, meat works, retirement homes etc. This is a serious problem.
This virus is actually very predictable. When people relax social distancing it takes off. NSW is in deep shit because of the behaviour of people up there. The R number is estimated to be 2 and there's a shitload of undiagnosed cases. The tracking app is useless and they should be in lockdown now. It's like Gladys has learnt nothing from the Victorian outbreak.
My gut feel is that if Victoria gets numbers under control, the distancing rules will stay for the foreseeable future. We are talking about stage 2 or 3 being the norm for the rest of 2020. We are being primed by Dan Andrews for the long haul in mask wearing. I can't see pubs being reopened for months.
There also has to be major changes in the safety net and hiring practices for meat and aged care workers. The precarious nature of that work, and no job keeper for casuals forces people on the poverty line to work. Andrews knows this and is creating a safety net, but that should be a Federal government responsibility.
This is a serious long haul until a vaccine is found. If I owned a pub or cafe, I'd be folding the cards, and keeping the remaining chips for another day. If things deteriorate much more, I will be looking at another career change or a side hustle to keep enough income coming in.
I understand the maths behind this virus and we've fucked it up. Politicians have been too slow to bring in lockdowns, and when lockdown is inevitable Joe Public fucking goes on holiday, or they go to the pub for one last night on the piss. You can't fix stupid.
On the bright side 2-3 yrs of lockdown might slow down the progression of the surf industry and then the population in the water may go back to how it was back in the 80s. Gives the locals a chance to pick up surfing, more grommets surfing high quality waves and old blokes pulling out dusty boards and having another crack
VL, I hate the idea of conspiracies. I don't believe in them because I know how incapable humans are at orchestrating even the simplest of tasks. So don't put me in the conspiracy nutbag pigeon hole....but I think it's not as simple as you're making it out.
The media is how it is because it's what we like to read. The media have been going absolutely bonkers with Covid. The population is hounding to consume Covid stories - both positive and negative ones. We're creating our own consumer confidence - or in the case - hesitance. Why? Because of access to information, to live 24 hour coverage available in the palm of your hand. In some ways, I feel we'd be screwed if polio popped up now instead of a time prior to smart phones and the net. We'd shut down all sorts of stuff...but back when polio was raging away humans visited the moon.
Populations drive policy...we like to think it's the experts in charge but Dan Andrews decision to bring in masks is based on both stopping the pandemic and keeping him in office. There are a lot of people who want this, who feel the fear.
Unfortunately, as with any challenge which faces humans, Covid has become politicised. The left believe in elimination and following the rules...the right believe in freedoms and herd immunity. We're lacking an ability to truly come together to decide how to best deal with this universally.
What you're suggesting we're being lined up for - long term lock downs - will be costly. Expensive in terms of human life. Not sure what your experience is but you can't just easily 'fold up cards' on a hospitality business. No, if you do your left with potentially an un-repayable debt, and no income. You'd also be coming out to join some of the highest unemployment rates this side of the depression, and competing for checkout jobs with ex A380 pilots. Families into poverty, deep mental health issues, domestic violence and of course suicide will of course explode.
Now I'm sure you know that we count Covid deaths prior to autopsies...which is not unreasonable, but skews on the side of caution. There's also little to no international standards for testing and report of cases. Our fears are grown out of something which isn't as steadfast as it seems. We're looking at graphs showing reported case numbers....thinking that's a tell all about how the pandemic is tracking. We never hear about corrections in the testing. We ignore the fact that time of infection is the critical missing piece of the puzzle. The media also doesn't address the true likely chance of dying from Covid, given the likely huge numbers of asymptomatic cases going undetected.
Don't get me wrong, Covid sounds like a nasty virus and it's a new one so we're learning more and more. I don't want anything to do with it, the again I wouldn't want to have anything to do with a common cold if I could avoid it.
So what's truly better? Who knows? Sweden and NZ are the ones to watch....NZ clearly the preferable place to be now as time passes by.
I'll be wearing a mask, and encouraging other to do so to for now, but I'm not so sure we're heading down the right path. I guess the leadership needs to strengthen it's position further, to convince idiots like me.
stok, I fully understand the economic costs of lockdown. They are serious, but have to be weighed up against the costs of not having a lockdown, and then having to go into a much harder and longer one later. The in-out-in-out situation in Victoria is causing chaos for businesses.
The other option is to take the US approach and just let the virus rip. I don't think anyone still thinks that's a sensible option.
I see governments across Australia having much tighter distancing laws even when the figures are improving. Unfortunately it will probably take a second wave for politicians and people to come to their senses.
Melbourne surfers may have had their last wave on the surf coast for 2020.
I'm just not that convinced that going harder and harder with lockdowns is the panacea. I can see human error bringing the virus back in regardless....give it time.
And yes interesting point regarding when the surf coast will be accessible for melb surfers. It could go either way. I wouldn't be surprised if you have a reprieve from us for at least another couple of months, but I'd suspect once the virus becomes a bit more established down your way, this may breakdown the quarantine lines a bit - but only once restrictions start easing.
In other news.......the surf is very average this morning on the Surfcoast. Looks a lot better from up above than the reality of being out there at sea level. A morning land breeze trying to tidy up a weak, wonky swell that is no doubt getting hacked up by SW winds out to sea. As usual, carparks overflowing.
Pretty cold too. Might be time to ditch the 3/2. If you're not here, i wouldn't bother if I were you.
Re crowd numbers, I've surfed the last 2 mornings, not great yesterday but today was good and the crowd numbers on the surf coast are way down. Me and 2 others out first hour yesterday and low numbers again today. Pity it's not pumping, worst winter for ages. FYI the police were in the carpark this morning checking plates and had one guy bailed up so good to see!
Well done to the coppers.
I surfed today and didn't see too many unfamiliar faces in the water.
Stok, I just can't see the behaviour after lockdown 1 being acceptable/legal when this next lockdown ends. This is especially the case with indoor events / activities / numbers.
One thing that looks pretty obvious is indoor spaces are where the real danger lies. Pubs, workplaces, houses, places of worship, cafes, prisons, schools etc. We can expect mask wearing to be much more prominent, workplace health and safety getting a big revamp, and getting pissed in busy pubs just isn't going to happen for the rest of 2020.
Dan is my man. Lock down on the east coast with light offshores, beach friendly swells, sunny days can knock off work around 3pm, walk out the back door and go surfing nearly every day which is rare in winter. Life is good to me and so it is for Bean who is shaping his heart out to keep up with local board demand. Back to the 70's!
Jeez latest numbers not good for rural Vic. 15 new cases Colac, 5 greater Geelong, 3 Surf Coast, 4 MP. She’s spreading :(
The spread is absolutely inevitable. Like I said before: I'd have no objections in solidifying the lockdown boundaries at Little River. Only people to get through are medical professionals, fire fighters, police, and corrections officers.
The Colac outbreak was caused by a meat inspector going from one hotspot to the next, crossing the lockdown border and going to Colac. Just fucking stupid.
It should be essential workers only.
Another thing to note is that the Melbourne lock down didn't happen until halfway through the school holidays. So all of those (possibly infected) Melbournites who visited regional areas, and stayed the duration of the holidays, would have spread the virus even more. Will be another week or so until we see what effect that had.
While the idea that Melburnian's staying on in their holiday homes being the cause of the virus spreading into South West Victoria (Colac, Surfcoast etc) might be really appealing to those of us still stuck on localism in Torquay, the clear facts, after more than two weeks of this scenario playing out, show that it's complete and utter BS. The danger and results have clearly been caused by people from Regional Victoria going into Metro Melbourne and bringing it back out - as sad as that is. I'd be willing to wager that a lot of the "essential workers" in the lineup, locals who engage in trades in Metro Melbourne, are more of a danger than those people, regardless of where they are from, staying put wherever that may be.
I've said it before, anyone who calls any part of the Australian coast "theirs" with a familiar history on that coast of less than 200 years, needs a history lesson.
Chill out, follow the rule, look after each other and stay safe.
I have always wondered since a kid how a Indigenous Australian kept warm in Vic during June July August Sept....maby a shit tone of red gum burning hahaha.
You’re probably right. I don’t understand the apprehension in having a lockdown in the west. You have likely 1000s travelling to city and back each day and they are all free to head to their local pubs and restaurants for a sit down meal on the way home.
I agree with your points on locals bringing it back from the city, no doubt that will contribute, but I still think there will be a fall out from all of those people visiting regional areas during that time. Time will tell I guess.
Not sure why you are mentioning family history and 200 years, unless it's in regards to someone else's post?!?! I read mine over and can't see anywhere I claimed land. I don't even live on the surf coast. Definitely chilled and following the rules though.
How bout we talk about the average winter surf rather than some stinking virus.. f- me. I come here to escape the overload..
Greyhound remember the outlook forecast for bells in 2019 before the comp started .....every cat and dog was bagging out surfcoast and lack off swell ect....then we got that massive storm swell and everyone was happy.
I'm predicting a run off waves in August for a few days and a good September and October
It’s evening the score. Westerlies up until NYE2019. Zero sympathy. Zero.
I normally come to the Vic forecast notes to laugh at the locals complaining about crowds....
But yes shocking winter so far really. What's been even more painful is the quality surf our warm water brothers and sisters are enjoying up North of late.
I normally quite like living in Melb in winter...great selection of pubs and food...and access to a wide range of consistent, uncrowded surf. Maybe get away the odd weekend or three down on the island, or further down the GOR. maybe a snow trip or two. Escape to indo for a couple of weeks of tropical respite. Come back home and look forward to the longer days of spring and summer. We even had a bloody wave pool to get tubed on this year.
Skateboarding is keeping me sane now...trying to recall how to kickflip.