Windy weekend though not as much size as you'd expect
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd April)
Best Days: Today, protected spots Sunday and dawn Monday
Recap
Improving waves yesterday and great today with reinforcing pulses of W/SW and SW swell to 3ft+ on the former across the Surf Coast, 5ft+ on the sets to the east with improving conditions as the day progressed, deteriorating into the afternoon to the east of Melbourne with a SW change.
Today there's still plenty of size on offer with a reinforcing mid-period SW swell to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east with generally clean conditions all over. We'll see the swell start to ease during the afternoon as winds hold and strengthen a little out of the northern quadrant.
This weekend and next week (Apr 4 – 10)
Tomorrow morning will mark a low point in swell activity as today's mid-period SW swell eases further along with a dawn W/NW breeze. Winds will shift stronger W-W/SW through the morning, creating bumpy conditions, possibly back to the W/NW later in the day. The Surf Coast looks average and only to 1-2ft, choppy elsewhere.
Our strong mid-latitude low due to move in from the west has formed south of WA, and it's currently too north of our swell window.
We'll see it pushing east through today while dipping more south-east and broadening in scope, with a fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds being aimed through our western swell window this afternoon, weaker into this evening.
Any swell due later tomorrow looks minimal in size (maybe 2ft+ late Surf Coast), with Sunday morning seeing moderate amounts of mid-period and stronger W/SW groundswell. Size wise the Surf Coast which will be cleanest, looks to be 4ft or so on the magnets, with 6ft to possibly 8ft waves to the east under a strong and tricky N/NW breeze. Winds will shift W/NW during the day and W into the afternoon as a cold front pushes into and across us.
The swell generating fetch associated with this front again looks a little north than ideal resulting in no real additional size at all, holding a similar size to the morning if not a touch smaller.
Later Sunday one final projection of a polar front through our southern swell window will produce a S/SW swell for Monday afternoon, easing Tuesday.
Size wise it looks like we'll see surf to 3-4ft all day on the Surf Coast, though swinging more S/SW in direction, 6ft to the east, then easing from 3ft and 5ft respectively Tuesday.
Unfortunately as the frontal progression continues east through early next week, winds will go onshore with it, early W'ly Monday morning on the Surf Coast (SW elsewhere) but shifting SW from mid-morning with Tuesday seeing moderate to fresh S'ly winds.
Wednesday looks no better as winds persist out of the S/SE as the swell continues to drop in size.
Longer term there's nothing too exciting on the cards, with a strong polar frontal progression likely to occur just a touch too east of our swell window to be favourable, under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough developing across New Zealand. This will bring unfavourable winds from the south-western quadrant with no major size at this stage. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Victoria have ban all outdoor activities, 'basic' exercise the only outdoor activity allowed. Also heard that they will be policing social distancing rules on the SC this weekend.
Heath
Any web link to info on this?
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/victoria-coronavirus-lat...
Interesting, still no mention of surfing?
No update on the DHHS website either.
"After last weekend’s images of Victorians flocking to beaches when they had been told to stay home, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton announced tighter restrictions on Thursday.
Fishing, hunting, boating, camping, and golf among other sports and hobbies will not be allowed during the pandemic."
Seems we are only moments/days away from surfing being specifically called out unfortunately, particularly with that 'among other sports & hobbies' line. If they are saying the images of people flocking to beaches is driving the tighter restrictions, then interesting that one of the main activities at a beach still hasn't been called out.
Seems that coastal areas are already seeing high areas (i would assume possibly the highest on a per capita basis however haven't done the maths) of infection. This idea of travellers bringing it in is backwards as it appears its already there, and it would largely be the other way round!
Also - before we jump to the conclusion along the lines of, 'yep too many people travelled here and have spread it.' Remember that community transmission is exceptionally low. Insofar that you could conclude a majority of the cases in these areas are people who reside in these locations (holliday house or otherwise as they would have to have a residence in that council to be captured in the data) and have travelled overseas. i.e. not from blowins surfing with non blowins.
Note - slightly out dated data but as an approximate the point should stand.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-cases-in-victoria-ris...
I heard police presence on Geelong Road stopping suspect vehicle's and seeing what their travel purpose is.
Maybe the lemmings can stop coming down the coast now that they fucked it up for everyone
Looking at the Torquay Point cam, plenty made it through....
I can only imagine the main breaks on the SC are packed today
Having a 9 "+ long board &/or 8 " mini mal strapped to the car roof is a give away to the police who are cracking down on people from the city driving to the coast. I have to say that sadly I have hung my wetsuit for the time being but still will continue with subscribing to SWELLNET as a way to keep in touch with the ocean.
Yes Mr.Tee I’m with you. Sadly boards and wetties put on ice for the time being and hanging onto memories of great last surf Aust day long week end. Looking forward to getting back into ocean at some stage.
Thanks for the support Mr.Tee
+1
Bought a surfskate to kill the anxiety.
:-)
Plenty of punters from the Armstrong creek boardriders at 13th today
“ Friday is much better as we see persistent and freshening N'ly winds kick in, likely N/NW all day on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east.”
No such thing as a fresh N/NE round these parts Craigoss. Just waiting for it to do its little further to West
Waiting period for the Bells comp would have kicked off next week. Looks like the surf would have been pretty shitty for the comp.
Still a whole swag of never-seen-befores out in town this morning/lunchtime. Seems like a lot of people have not been content to stay local, but have seen corona as the perfect time to start surfing.
HI everyone.
Just a quick update.
Whilst surfing in many other reserves remains open this weekend, local land managers have concerns that people are not adhering to social distancing recommendations. As a local land manager I am trying to do everything I can protect the general public from COVID 19 WHILST still enabling people the opportunity to surf IF THEY FOLLOW THE RULES.
Due to the evolving COVID 19 issue most reserves have begun a series of staged closures throughout public spaces. At this stage most toilets, playgrounds and BBQs are closed. Camping / sleeping in cars is prohibited .
If you must go surfing (and please consider the implications carefully if you are thinking of surfing over the weekend), please surf, then immediately go home, do not linger in car parks or on the beach for a chat with friends, this is not appropriate during these times.
Please dont screw this up for the wider surfing community
Failure by the general public to do so will result in further restrictions being placed throughout the reserve.
Ultimately this may result in many reserves being closed completely and surfing being banned for a period of time by government.
The police are regularly patrolling the park, fines of up to $1600 may apply if people are found to be in breach of current restrictions.
I reckon if we are really honest with ourselves, we all know we shouldn't be surfing. The advice is to stay at home other than for essentials and some "basic" exercise at a nearby park. We all want that to mean that surfing is ok but it really isn't. The vast majority of surfers park in car parks at known breaks with a bunch of other punters. We move around, we chat, and we touch stuff. All the things that people shouldn't be doing right now.
Plenty of people seem to be trying to find a grey area which means that they can surf but others shouldn't - and if we look hard enough, we can all find ourselves a grey area. Hence the packed car parks. But if you look at the principle of what the experts and politicians are saying - "just stay at home" - surfing just doesn't fit, for anyone.
I think we just have to take a good hard look at ourselves and realise that our leisure activity is not worth risking other peoples lives for.
Absolutely hit the nail on the head, Basil!!
Interesting one, Basil, and I mean that.
I think you are right about getting exercise nearby. All the guidance etc is saying you've got 4 things that are legit to get out for, and exercise is one of them. The implicit message is to stay local and not travel for waves (or anything else non-essential).
Where I get stuck is that I live pretty close to the beach - 2 blocks in a straight line and probably 300 yards tops one way, and 600 yards the other way. I walk the point pretty much every day and see a stack of people walking the foreshore who are either walking a bloody long way or driving to get there for that walk. I'm lucky to live closer to the beach than most people live to a park for local exercise, though I have a whopping mortgage and an annual rates bill that would make your eyes water. I'm surfing because it's still allowed, but in the spirit of the moment I don't drive to any of the multitude of good waves within a couple of clicks up or down the road which I usually surf, and instead walk or treadly to whichever wave I'm keen on within 1km/10min walk of home.
If you're suggesting I stay local (like many others who live this close to the beach around Oz), and the surf is closer than a park is to most people, then why can't I surf if I maintain social distancing and shoot straight home after? Is it different to going to the "park" for exercise?
Hey Tango, I'm seriously struggling with this as well and keep mentally finding ways which make me feel like it is ok if I surf. The problem as I see it though is that the only way any restriction on surfing at all works is if there is no loophole for any of us to crawl through - because if we can crawl through it, so can others. As there is no way of policing or communicating them, our own personal circumstances don't really matter, by jumping into the line-up we are showing others it is ok to surf, and they, in turn, are showing others it is ok. The end result is packed car parks up and down the coast.
You may well be right, Basil, and there's at least a bottle of red wine in a discussion about regulation, personal responsibility and the like.
You're on and I'm buying once all this is over.
As soon as we take a step back from the news, and quotes like this, “These restrictions are tough, but they are there for a reason. If we don’t do this, Victorians will die.”, utter fear mongering etc and have a think about what is actually going on, the sooner we as people can move on (we need to come together and not police eachother)
People have given up livelihoods, and all our freedoms, no questions asked.
One of my parents died of cancer, so I'm not speaking out of line, and the stats say half the Covid deaths in Victoria were cancer patients in the same ward (quoted in the article above). They probably would've passed on anyway.
So, people are dying 'with' coronavirus, not 'of' it. Yet the stats say its a corona death. The 'news' and politicians will have us in fear, and dobbing in eachother in, we need to ask what the hell is really going on...because at the end of the day, we just want to get back to normal, and enjoy our family, work, and SURFING with this not hanging over us.
Unfortunately, us minions don't have any power, but too many just give up their power too easily
That's exactly right! Reporting deaths with covid19 instead of due to covid19 is done around the world, largely misleading and seems only designed to scare people so that they comply with restrictions that wouldn't have been imaginable only a few weeks ago.
Even solo fishing is now banned! How is that going to spread the virus?
Yep, that fishing ban is a bit strange. So if you've lost your job you can't even go and get a feed of fish for your family?
Thanks SWL. glad I’m not the only 1 thinking along similar lines..
Salty, usually I'm the first to jump on a Govt trying to impeach on peoples powers and spread their net further than it has to go. Not this time. A Govt that only 2 months ago ridiculed an increase in the dole and staked its re-election on delivering a surplus... just - doubled the dole, effectively implemented a "living wage" and quasi nationalised private hospitals. Measures that add up to spending over 15% of Australia's total GDP. In short, these small govt conservatives are doing stuff that would make Bernie Sanders blush. This is no dark state, surveillance exercise, the only way these guys would even listen to these type of ideas, let alone implement them, is if they have seen some bulletproof modelling of this thing that scares the living shit out of them. I'm talking total health & economic system collapse, anarchy in the streets type stuff. No matter where on the spectrum you sit, I don't think anyone wants that.
Sorry, SWL, but you are seriously misinformed. Plus, the statement about people with cancer passing on anyway is just shithouse, and having a parent die of cancer doesn't give you a licence to say stupid things. You're out of line big time.
The facts are that people are actually dying of corona, regardless of whether they have cancer - in today's Age they referred to a woman who was going in for cancer treatment and got corona and died from that, when she was not expected to suffer from the treatment.
This bug hasn't even kicked in here in Oz yet, and as a window to the future, I'd encourage you to have a good look at what's happening in the UK and USA to make the comparison easier - they and their medical systems are being overwhelmed, with people dying unnecessarily. Covid-19 has killed (or for your logic, contributed to the killing of) over 5000 people in the US. Do you seriously think western democracies are beating this up? We've been asked to pull our heads in for a few weeks and because Australians pride ourselves on being dismissive of authority and "shillbeerite" and continue to gather and display various signs of dumbfuckery, they have to clamp down on us as a whole.
When the ICU beds are full of people who could have avoided corona and someone has a car accident with injuries requiring ICU time can't be accommodated, will you still call it fear mongering?
Sorry for your offence tango, but if you want to take your personal moral high ground, go for it.
But if my relative has been battling something as debilitating as cancer for a long or a short time, and they're said to have been taken by Covid to drive up the stats to support the narrative, I'd be peeved and very sad. It's happening with heart attacks too.
The stats out of America are rife with this, and if you want to keep believing everything you hear through your mainstream channels, that's fine.
There's plenty of alternative research you can do.
Btw, I returned from overseas 3 weeks ago and quarantined for 14 days - did the right thing. But some may believe questions need to be asked
Dear swellnet.
We are under dictatorship government no rules have been passed through lower house and upper house. It's a dictatorship.
Please put down your own live by the beach rules. Because it's a fkn load of crap putting that up.
I have to front up to work every day with over a hundred other tradies climbing all over my back driving to the CBD from every which direction from 1k away to over a hundred away.
At least put the heath department statment up. I don't want to log on and see some bullshit rules made up by my fav surf report team.
People can make there decisions.
One thousand deaths...corona related, in the US over the last twenty four hours.
Take your right hand...unwrap it from around your bong or perhaps your flacid member...make a fist...remember...you sound like the sort of flog who would have made a fist and stamped his feet as a toddler...thank whatever god you pray to for your health and the fact that you still have a job however onerous it may be...millions don't...now punch yourself in the head...do it again...harder this time...and again...feel better
Cheers
Bird rock today was fucking ridiculous and as a local most of the heads out there were local.shoulder to shoulder in a tight take off zone with up to 20 at times .....so-called distancing and doing the right thing..... you gotta be kidding
It’s probably a matter of time and as for the coming winter my prediction is the most crowded ever with all the new locals old locals and visitors and now overseas trips it’s gonna be hectic.....not to mention the new wave of unemployed....... farrrrk
I heard that the crowd at the Rock were all grommets sitting on top of each other......who would seem to need a good talking to, or they are going to shaft the lot of us. Or were they older fuckwits who should know better?
I can; t believe I'm saying this, but I hope your prediction comes to pass and we get to surf for the winter - I reckon that now they've banned rec fishing and with offshores all weekend there's every chance surfing won't last much past Sunday night.
Surfing isn’t basic exercise...basic exercise is going for a walk or run around the block near your house to get fresh air... it sucks for all of us, but better than being a part of the problem
Depends on where you live champ
Roll out of bed in the morning at seven...drive four minutes to the beach...or walk for fifteen if you are hardcore...surf for an hour...back in the car and off to work... home at five...rinse repeat.
Sounds like basic exercise to me
Cheers
It’s sitting in a lineup that’s the issue, and if you’re out, you’re no better than anyone else out there despite where you live
More often than not by myself...in the last two weeks no more than four and a well spread out four at that
As I've said before I generally surf the B or C bank while half a K away the local reef is packed to the gills
Really not interested in the should we or shouldn't we bullshit anymore...that decision will be taken away from us in fairly short order I suspect
The government has listed four reasons for you to leave your house and if you still think driving out of your postcode to go surfing is one of them then youre beyond faaarked.
And if you think I'm getting a bit old school on the stay the fuck at home line check out the link below and read the section on Borough of Queenscliffe...thats where I live...#we dont have it so please dont bring it
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162507/Australias-vulnerable-c...
My boards have been on the rack after surfing my local last weekend on the east coast. Lots of ppl surfing there that normally wouldn’t be so I won’t make things worse regardless of who is more deserving because of where they live. If you can get away with surfing with a couple of other ppl somewhere secluded that could be a different story, but joining the crew at places like winki/bells is just not on, no matter where you live or how many years you’ve been surfing there.
On that we are in total agreement mate
Take it easy...stay safe
Cheers
Haha glad to hear, likewise
Ditto once again down here
I think we should now call it the Armstrongs Creek effect...Warrrallilley, Charlemont Rise, Oakdeane, Wyndeane, The Point, The Golflinks, Freshwater Creek, Spring Creek, The Sands, The Mews...FAAARK
No pointing the finger at Melbourne crew. The number of freshly unemployed on the Surfcoast and the Bellarine means that whichever way you cut it...shits going to be crowded and its totally a trickle down effect.
Apart from the Stonnington set who seem to think its OK to bunker down in their coastal hideaways, we have been seeing the net effect of mass unemployment and the end point of piss poor town planning by the numbers which means every break between Lorne to Lonsdale is Chokkas.
From my end of the coast...anecdotally...fifteen year olds don't give a fuck and if its crowded at yours you'll drive to mine...stay the fuck at home before you ruin it for everyone!!!
Cheers
That's the whole point peanut.
I don't tell the bloke sitting behind me he can't come to work and get paid because he drives from Frankston I don't turn to my left and tell old mate I don't want him on-site because he drove to town from kilmore and I don't look at my workmate across the table and say hey don't come to work because you live in Torquay.
You dickfolps have got your own head up your own arse. Bunch of big Hippocrates I will take out 4 ribs and eat my own are before I listen to the bullshit on this forum.
We are under a dictatorship government with swellnet and dickfolps making up there own rules it a fkn joke.
Ps. This shit is life until a vaccine is found. Ya fkn dickhead
Dick Folps...wasn't he that Aussie bloke in Baywatch?
Cheers
13th on Friday was ridiculous. As a long time local I recognized about 2 in 10 faces out today. A mate works as a cop on the Bellarine. They checked nearly all the car regos along 13th and over half were registered to Melbourne addresses. Even have a big neon sign saying stay home. This aint fucking working at all.
Natjon651
Was a single fine issued to any of the people from Melbourne?
I’m going to assume no, because, like it or not, it’s currently not breaking the rules.
That's possibly because the rules are written to maintain a semblance of people's sense of self control. They didn't want to close beaches but the stupidity of the masses forced their hand. The message is about as implicit as you can get without being clearly stated. Stay at home, stay local, don't drive if you don't have to. There may be too many local crew around with schools closed and unemployment, but surely people coming from anywhere not local is going to exacerbate it.
Even ScoMo says in today's paper that people shouldn't travel over the Easter period and "People should not be getting in their cars and going to other places."
Banning surfing might not be crystal clear just yet, but there's every chance it will be if people keep driving out of their postcode to go for a surf.
But everyone drives out of there postcode to come to work ya dick flop. Double standards
Pigdog, I think you need to update your caption to say “ya dick flops” that way you’ll save time on your posts.
A lot of debate and opinions over the last few weeks, but no one has floated the idea, just surf once a week. If you are going to surf & are concerned that others are going to ruin it for YOU, maybe commit to only a session a week and do your bit to keep the line ups less crowded.
Let’s face it (no further debate required) until there are actual written rules / laws around leaving your postcode, some surfers are just going to go surfing, wether it be 5, 10, 60 minutes etc. drive away.
Well Said on both topics
My guess is there were probably just too many tickets to write out. Uncommon sense would suggest stay within a pissed walk of your address and you won’t potentially spread the covid far and wide.
For those who think it is all an over reaction take 5 minutes of your day and listen to this, A RedCross worker from Northern Italy, coming off a 14 day shift. https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/italian-red-cross-workers-go-ho...
Stay well and happy.
The Herald Sun today on page #7 (who knows how reliable that is) has surfing listed as a banned activity in Victoria. If that is true, the Police will have the ability to fine you $20,000 for a breach.
the age discrediting the herald hehe
to all the dickheads surfing pines,sitting on top of each other,thanks for nothing fucking it up for everyone who needs a wave,, spread out you gooses..