Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 25th December)

Best Days: Keen surfers from later morning tomorrow, early Saturday morning exposed beaches, Monday, early Tuesday and Wednesday protected spots

Recap

Easing levels of S/SW swell from 3ft on the Surf Coast yesterday and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but noticeably weaker in power and energy. Winds lingered onshore but there were OK waves for the keen.

This morning we've got a smaller mix of SE windswell and fading S/SW swell with light variable winds on the Surf Coast and improving conditions to the east.

This week and next (Dec 26 - Jan 2)

Tomorrow is still a lay day as the swell bottoms out along with a moderate onshore S'ly breeze.

The new inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Friday hasn't changed, with it now on the way towards us, generated Sunday and Monday to the west-southwest and south-west of WA.

The swell should fill in through Friday afternoon and reach an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 4-5ft to the east. The morning will be smaller and slower.

Winds aren't ideal but workable with a light to moderate S/SE breeze early, tending more SE through the mid-late morning ahead of sea breezes.

Saturday morning is the pick but it looks like the earlier the better now for the exposed beaches. An approaching front will swing winds from a dawn N/NE offshore, quickly to the N/NW-NW mid-morning ahead of a fresh afternoon SW change.

The W/SW groundswell will be easing from an inconsistent 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east, but get in early.

We may see onshore winds back off and tend more variable for a period Sunday morning but the swell will be much smaller and on the way out, easing from 2-3ft across exposed beaches.

Moving into next week and we've got plenty of swell on the cards, and just when it looked like the effects of the Stratospheric Warming Event and flow on negative SAM events had subsided, forecasts are for another negative dip into early January.

The weather models are starting to turn this way, with back to back mid-latitude fronts forecast to develop in our western swell window, moving in and across us through next week.

The first of these will develop west-southwest of WA tomorrow evening, projecting a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our western swell window, only weakening and dipping away from our swell window on Saturday.

This should produce a moderate sized long-period W/SW groundswell that's due to fill in Monday and peak later in the day. The morning will be undersized and likely to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east, but building rapidly to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula by late in the day.

Similar sized surf is expected on Tuesday morning but we'll likely see a weaker but broad mid-latitude front developing south of WA and pushing in from the west Monday and Tuesday, generating an additional W/SW swell for later Tuesday but more so Wednesday.

Size wise it's hard to lock down but we'll likely see 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft or so to the east.

Winds on Monday as the swell builds look favourable and from the N'th, possibly holding until mid-afternoon ahead of a gusty SW change, and then it looks like we'll be seeing generally SW winds Tuesday and Wednesday, more favourable out of the W early each morning. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though. Merry Christmas!