Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 30th January)

Best Days: Possibly Surf Coast early tomorrow, exposed beaches Saturday morning

Recap

Great waves the past two days with moderate to large pulses of W/SW and SW groundswell along with favourable light offshore winds across all locations ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

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This week and next week (Jan 31 – Feb 8)

I hope you made the most of the last couple of days, because the end of the week isn't anywhere near as good.

We'll see plenty of fun sized swell but winds will spoil the party.

Our current groundswell event should continue to ease through tomorrow but some new mid-period W/SW energy is due into the afternoon, easing slowly Friday. This has been generated the last couple of days by a broad and elongated fetch of strong W/SW winds extending from south of WA up towards the Bight.

The Surf Coast should hang around 3ft, with the odd bigger one across magnets all tomorrow, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively Friday morning.

One of the fronts linked to this reinforcing swell will move in overnight, bringing moderate to fresh SW winds. The Torquay region may see a period of early W'ly winds, but don't count on it.

Friday will be poor as the swell eases under moderate to fresh S/SE tending SE winds.

Saturday is still looking fun on the beaches and even cleaner than expected on Monday as a dawn E/NE breeze swings N/NE by mid-morning, giving into sea breezes early afternoon.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks small and easing from 2ft, with 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula though with a morning high tide.

Sunday will be clean again through the morning but tiny with N-N/NW winds ahead of an approaching front and afternoon SW change.

No major swell is due off this front but it will spoil conditions early next week with a fresh S/SW breeze Monday and small long-range SW groundswell for the afternoon, followed by a better SW groundswell Tuesday but with moderate to fresh and strengthening S'ly winds.

Tuesday's groundswell will be generated by a good polar fetch of initial strong W'ly winds, reaching gale-force when south-southwest of WA, weakening while projecting towards Tasssie on Sunday. The Surf Coast should see 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with that poor S'ly breeze.

The swell will ease Wednesday with strong E'ly winds as a surface trough deepens to our north-west, cleaner Thursday but with a small peaky mix of easing swells. We'll have another look at this Friday though.