Easing SE windswell with a new W/SW groundswell for early next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th December)
Best Days: Beaches mid-late morning to early afternoon tomorrow, Surf Coast late Sunday and Monday morning, beaches Wednesday morning
Recap
An inconsistent new W/SW groundswell yesterday with early clean conditions across all locations ahead of a change mid-morning and average conditions into the afternoon.
Today a SE windswell is on the build with onshore E/SE winds across all spots, but winds have since shifted offshore across select locations creating fun peaky options for keen and experienced surfers. We'll see winds increasing from the SE again from mid-afternoon.
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This week and weekend (Nov 15 - 21)
A dynamic and deep low is currently sitting across the south-east of the country and we'll see it continuing to influence our weather and surf through the weekend.
A fetch of strong E/SE-SE winds will persist through Bass Strait this evening and tomorrow morning, keeping moderate amounts of SE windswell hitting both coasts into tomorrow morning again for the beaches.
The Surf Coast looks to come in at 3-4ft, easing through the day, with similar sized sets on the Mornington Peninsula and winds look to improve through the morning.
At dawn conditions will be average with a SE breeze but this is due to tend variable and light NE through the morning east of Melbourne, creating cleaner and improving conditions, back to the SE mid-afternoon.
Come Sunday conditions look clean across both coasts with a light local offshore N'ly breeze, but small fading sets from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 2ft+ to the east. A W'ly change will favour the Surf Coast into the afternoon as a new long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell fills in.
This groundswell has been generated in our far swell window by a strong polar low that formed around the Heard Island region during the middle of this week. A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds were produced before the system weakened slowly into the end of this week.
Good but inconsistent 2-3ft sets are likely late in the day on the Surf Coast Sunday, with 3-5ft waves to the east, peaking Monday to 3-4ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east. Winds are still looking best for the Surf Coast with a morning W/NW breeze, giving into a SW change later morning.
Tuesday will then be average with SW winds and an easing swell, cleaner on the beaches Wednesday as winds revert back to the E/NE but with no major size.
Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards and winds look to swing onshore from Thursday as another deepening trough moving across us. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Wow! How crazy is this sea fog on the westy, reminds me of sitting on a chair at Hotham in the low clouds but with mild temperatures.
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How was down your way, WAG? Any novelty waves? Winds looked a bit off.
Nah BR it was terrible this morning on the reefs and I drove around looking at beaches but the swell wasn't really lining-up because the wind was still an issue. The wind has just gone around to the north on the Bellarine, so I might go take another look at 13th but it was much smaller there this morning compared to around the Bells area, must be that east in the swell focussing the energy further west.
Figured that would be the case but good to hear a first hand account cheers G
Offshore all day today, Craig. Well it least it was until I paddled out at 4:45pm and then it immediately went onshore.
How fun and unusual was the session late Saturday! The wind swung northerly here at about 2pm and after two hours or so of offshore flow it turned into tepee-ville. Sure, it was low period but it was still heaps of fun and then yesterday late morning a fun little ground swell on the reefs. That's 2 days in a row and boy did it feel amazing to finally wash some dust off.