Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 30th November)

Best Days: Both coasts at stages tomorrow, Surf Coast keen surfers Sunday morning, experienced surfers Surf Coast Monday morning (though windy) and Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning beaches to the east

Recap

Tiny onshore surf yesterday, while today we've seen some much needed new swell filling in with 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves on the Surf Coast with a light to moderate onshore wind, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Dec 1 - 7)

This afternoon we'll see a better but more westerly pulse of W/SW groundswell filling in, peaking tomorrow morning before easing off slowly into the afternoon.

This swell was generated by a good fetch of elongated W/SW gales south-west and south of WA through the middle of this week and should provide 3ft+ waves on the Surf Coast (4ft sets at 13th Beach) and 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will vary through the day tomorrow and favour most locations at some point, with a morning N/NW breeze due to swing more NE into the afternoon and holding into the evening.

A temporary low point in swell is expected Sunday morning back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, but we should see some new mid-period and then stronger long-period W/SW groundswell building through the afternoon, ahead of a peak on Monday morning.

This will be generated by a vigorous low that's formed south-west of WA, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to be projected east through our western swell window today before the low stalls slightly south of the Bight tomorrow and then progresses east again into Sunday towards us while weakening.

This will generate a large long-period W/SW groundswell that's expected to arrive later in the day Sunday, building to at least 4-5ft by dark on the Surf Coast (most likely larger) and 6-8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds on Sunday will be fresh to strong from the W/SW, though the Torquay region should offer a period of W/NW winds in the morning.

The swell peak on Monday looks to come in around an easy 6ft on the Surf Coast, 8ft+ to the east, but a secondary front developing on the back of the low and pushing into us on Monday will bring with it a reinforcing large mid-period W/SW-SW swell for the afternoon.

Winds will accordingly be strengthening from the W/NW on Monday morning ahead of a strong afternoon W/SW change.

The surf will start easing on Tuesday from 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula with a morning W/NW breeze, tending SW-S/SW through the late morning.

Wednesday looks smaller and winds are expected to swing around to the E/NE-NE favouring the beaches. Size wise it looks to drop back to a more manageable 4-5ft on the beaches, 3ft Surf Coast. Thursday will super groomed and lined up on the beaches but with a further drop in size back to 2-3ft or so on the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term we may see a new W/SW groundswell building late week and peaking next Saturday under westerly winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend and enjoy the swell!