Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th November)

Best Days: Keen surfers Friday morning with low expectations, Sunday morning beaches, Monday beaches

Recap

A drop in swell through yesterday but fun and clean across most locations through the morning, bumpier on the beaches to the east with a strengthening N'ly wind ahead of a late onshore change.

This morning winds were onshore across all locations with small levels of swell creating average conditions.

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This week and weekend (Nov 15 – 18)

The surface trough linked to today's onshore winds will push further east tomorrow as a high ridges in from the west and with this we'll see poor conditions continue.

A fresh and gusty S/SW breeze is due through the morning, tending more S'ly if not S/SE later in the day, with our new SW groundswell filling in through the day.

The final touches are still being added to this swell, with a strong polar low currently south-west of Tassie aiming a fetch of W/SW gales through our south-western swell window.

Size wise the swell will be more W/SW and small tomorrow morning, with the most size arriving through the afternoon and out of the SW.

Surf Coast swell magnets should build to a consistent 3ft, with the odd 4ft set, with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell is due to start easing through Friday and we're now looking at a possible small window of cleaner conditions as another small trough moves through the area.

This is expected to bring light and variable winds from the SE ahead of a freshening S/SW'ly through the afternoon. With this conditions won't be great bit will likely be better than tomorrow. The Surf Coast should ease back from 3ft+ with 4-5ft sets to the east.

Saturday will be poor again under a fresh S'ly tending S/SE breeze.

We've still got our inconsistent mid-period pulses of swell due over the weekend, the first for Saturday with a secondary pulse for Sunday, more so the afternoon and Monday morning.

As touched on in Monday's notes, they'll be generated by fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW fetches in our far swell windows south-west of WA, with weaker fetches of strong W/NW winds moving in closer to us, south-west of Tassie on Friday.

Size wise the Surf Coast should hold around 2ft+ on Saturday, with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, similar Sunday morning though building into the afternoon to 2-3ft and 3-5ft respectively.

Winds should start to improve on Sunday for the beaches and tend NE through the morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Monday will be clean again with a N/NE offshore, likely holding into the afternoon. Size wise Sunday afternoon's swell is expected to ease, small and inconsistent into Tuesday. We'll have another look at this Friday though.