Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 26th October)

Best Days: Beaches Monday morning, Surf Coast Tuesday morning, early to the east, Thursday on the beaches

Recap

Not the greatest surf yesterday on the backside of Wednesday’s swell with the size dropping a touch faster than expected and conditions being quite variable with early variable winds before tending onshore.

Magnets on the Surf Coast eased back from 3-4ft, with 4-6ft sets to the east, while today we’re back to a small but cleaner 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and bumpy 3ft to the east.

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This weekend and next week (Oct 27 - Nov 2)

The weekend is looking really forgettable, with no decent swell and average winds.

A small low that was expected to bring a weak increase in mid-period SW swell this afternoon didn’t reach it’s expected strength and as a result the surf will continue to fade through tomorrow.

The Surf Coast looks to ease from 1-1.5ft, with 2-3ft sets to the east and a morning W/NW wind will give into a gusty SW tending S/SW change late morning.

Sunday morning will remain small to tiny and onshore S/SE tending SE winds will create poor conditions.

Later in the day and more so Monday our new inconsistent long-range SW groundswell is due to fill in. This has been generated the last couple of days by a very slow moving and almost stalling fetch of strong to gale-force W’ly winds, east of Heard Island and south-west of Western Australia.

As touched on in Wednesday’s notes, only an infrequent 2ft to occasionally 3ft wave is due on the Surf Coast swell magnets Monday, with 4ft+ sets to the east, though a slightly stronger longer-period pulse of swell should be seen into the afternoon and Tuesday morning.

The source of this swell will be a less favourably aligned but stronger fetch of pre-frontal NW gales moving in through a similar area of the Southern Ocean, broadening while weakening south of the country on the weekend.

This should provide more consistent sets to 3ft Monday afternoon, if not 3ft+ at Surf Coast swell magnets Tuesday, with 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

Now, winds are still expected to be average on Monday with a variable breeze from the eastern quadrant, possibly tending E/NE for a short period through the morning, but Tuesday is looking much better with a light N/NW offshore, possibly N’ly early east of Melbourne giving into a shallow SW change if not sea breezes earlier into the afternoon.

The change will be linked to a surface trough moving through the area and this looks to leave lingering winds from the eastern quadrant into Wednesday again. This will be with the arrival of a new moderate to possibly large sized SW groundswell, generated by a strengthening frontal system developing south of the country later in the weekend and early next week.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds will be generated in our swell window, with the swell due to fill in Wednesday and build to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. We’ll have a closer look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend!