Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st September)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow, both coasts Tuesday morning and the beaches Wednesday

Recap

Great waves on the Surf Coast yesterday with Wednesday’s large W/SW groundswell dropping back to a clean groomed 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, while locations to the east where bumpy and poor in the morning, better into the afternoon as onshore winds eased.

This morning we’re back to a smaller 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast with good clean conditions again, bumpy and lumpy to the east.

Our strong new long-period S/SW groundswell is on track with it hitting Cape Sorell at dawn this morning and showing a strong distinct J-curve, which is rarely seen across the Southern Ocean buoys. The swell should arrive around midday and we should see this kick wave heights to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing more west.

Update: Looking at the Cape Sorell observations, it looks like the Surf Coast will reach an easy 6ft by close of play today, bigger to the east.

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This weekend and next week (Sep 22 - 28)

This afternoon’s strong kick in long-period S/SW groundswell is due to peak overnight and will ease back through tomorrow from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east.

Winds will be great for the Surf Coast most of the day and out of the NW early, swinging more W/NW through the morning and W/SW mid-afternoon.

Unfortunately our onshore winds for Sunday and Monday are still on the cards, with a front clipping us Saturday evening followed by a high moving in behind it.

Onshore S/SW winds will be seen on Sunday along with a new building SW groundswell that’s due to peak Monday though with average S/SE winds again.

The groundswell will be generated by a strong polar frontal progression producing back to back fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our south-western swell window.

The Surf Coast should see 3ft surf Sunday morning, building to 3-4ft later and peaking in the consistent 4ft range Monday, but with those S-S/SE winds. The Mornington Peninsula looks to peak around 6ft+ on Monday with limited options for a quality wave.

The wind outlook has improved after deteriorating last update, due to a mid-latitude low that was forecast to form near the Bight now taking the form of a weaker surface trough.

This will then move east through early next week, with variable winds now likely Tuesday morning as the SW swell eases from 3ft+ and 4-5ft+ respectively.

Wednesday is looking like the day to surf though with a new S/SW groundswell and offshore N/NE winds as the trough nears closer.

The S/SW groundswell will be generated by a trailing polar frontal system then spawning into a much more significant polar storm south of Tassie.

Just before this storm leaves our swell window we’ll see a moderate sized S/SW groundswell created, peaking Wednesday to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east with those offshore winds.

Beyond this there’s nothing significant, but we’ll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!