Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 3rd September)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow and early Wednesday, Friday through the weekend Surf Coast, all locations Monday and Tuesday next week

Recap

OK waves for keen surfers Saturday morning with a new S/SW swell and period of favourable winds in protected spots on the Surf Coast, slipping onshore later morning.

A large and powerful SW tending S/SW groundswell filled in on Sunday and winds were OK early morning for keen and experienced surfers again, onshore thereafter as the swell peaked. Super protected spots offered some good options.

This morning the S/SW swell is on the ease along with poor onshore lingering S/SE winds as a high slowly moves in from the west.

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This week and weekend (Sep 4 - 9)

We'll see the S/SW swell continue to ease through tomorrow, but some new SW groundswell is expected, from a broad fetch of W/NW gales moving in south of the Bight over the weekend.

We should see the Surf Coast persisting at 3ft most of the day on the sets, easing later, with 4-5ft waves to the east under a much better N/NE offshore, possibly variable into the afternoon, if not more E'ly. This will be a result of the slow moving high pushing in further across us during the day.

Wednesday will be good across the exposed beaches again with a fresher N/NE-N offshore but small easing waves from 2ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 3-4ft to the east.

A low point in swell is due Thursday morning and winds will again be fresh to strong from the N/NE early, but a front moving in from the west through the day will swing winds more NW and then W/NW into the afternoon.

There may be a tiny hint of new long-range W/SW groundswell later in the day, but we're expecting this swell to fill in Friday and peak through the afternoon.

This swell started to form later last week as a strong and slow moving polar frontal progression developed in the Heard Island region before projecting towards WA. The front is now west-southwest of WA, in our western swell window and will weaken while pushing across the coast tomorrow afternoon and evening.

An inconsistent and long-period but small to moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due from this storm, but there'll also be some short-range W/SW swell in the mix Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, generated by the remnants of the polar front moving further east.

We'll see a small low projecting a fetch of W/SW gales through our swell window on Thursday, dipping south-east across Tassie early Friday.

With this, we'll see a mix of building W/SW swells through Friday, from an inconsistent and small 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets during the morning and 4-5ft+ to the east, to a better 3ft+ and 6ft respectively later in the day.

Conditions look good for the Surf Coast with a NW tending variable W/NW breeze.

We'll see both swells ease over the weekend from 3ft on the sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east as winds persist from the NW, smaller Sunday with W/NW breezes.

Into Sunday afternoon and more so early next week a couple of good pulses of W/SW groundswell are due, firstly from a vigorous polar front forming south-west of WA, and then secondary from a higher positioned and more zonal W'ly fetch.

The first swell is due to arrive Sunday and build to a good 4ft later in the day on the Surf Coast, with the secondary pulse for Monday, slowing the easing trend along with hopefully favourable N'ly winds. More on this Wednesday.