Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th June)

Best Days: Both coasts Saturday, Monday Surf Coast, Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday and Friday exposed beaches

Recap

Great waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with a new SW swell filling in through the day, providing clean 3-4ft waves on the reefs, while protected locations to the east offered the best conditions.

This morning the swell was easing but still a good 3ft+ on the Surf Coast with great winds for all locations, and clean solid 4-6ft surf to the east. Winds are due to swing more W/NW, favouring the Surf Coast.

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This weekend and next week (Jul 28 – Aug 3)

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Through the weekend we'll see the current SW swell continuing to ease, but with great winds for exposed locations tomorrow. Local offshore breezes are still expected (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE Mornington Peninsula and variable into the afternoon) with easing 2ft+ sets at magnets on the former, and 3-4ft beachy waves on the later.

Sunday looks like a lay day with a low point in swell and freshening W/NW breeze ahead of a late and stronger W/SW change.

The change will be linked to a strong mid-latitude low drifting in from the west, crossing us Sunday evening and projecting a slither of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window.

This fetch will be short-lived and only produce a small to moderate sized spike in W/SW swell Monday morning to the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the west.

Also in the mix will be an inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell generated by a very broad and expansive polar low that formed in the southern Indian Ocean this week.

This low has generated another XL groundswell for Indonesia and XXL W/SW groundswell for WA, but with it being in our far swell window and coming from the west, we're not expected to see anything to significant on our coasts.

The long-period forerunners are due to arrive through Sunday but with no real size (the Surf Coast may kick to 2ft+ late), with a peak due on Monday morning. The Surf Coast looks to offer infrequent 3ft sets, similar in size to the localised W/SW swell, with 5-6ft sets to the east.

Winds will be great for the Surf Coast with a moderate to fresh NW tending N/NW breeze as another strong front pushes in from the west.

We'll see some new W/SW swell energy from this mid-latitude frontal progression, produced as the storm forms south-west of WA and projects a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through the Bight before weakening while moving across us Monday evening. This will then be followed by a secondary embedded low projecting W/NW gales through our western swell window Tuesday and crossing us Tuesday evening.

We're due to see an initial increase in mid-period W/SW swell through Tuesday afternoon, followed by a solid mix of mid-period and groundswell on Wednesday.

The Surf Coast looks to build to 2ft+ later Tuesday with 4ft sets to the east under gusty W/NW tending NW winds.

Wednesday is the day to surf though with surf in the 4ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east under a morning W/NW breeze, SW into the afternoon.

We'll see the swell ease off into the end of the week as a really strong but high riding mid-latitude frontal system pushes in across the country, directing winds around to the NE Thursday and N/NE Friday.

At this stage no significant swell is due in the wake of this system as it tracks too far north, but check back Monday for more on this. Have a great weekend!