Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 25th June)

Best Days: Both coasts Thursday and early Friday, Surf Coast Friday afternoon, both coasts Saturday morning

Nice clean conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday with a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell mainly to 2ft, with the odd 3ft'er at magnets. Through the afternoon though we saw the swell slowly grow in size with some new energy and stronger W/NW winds.

This morning our peak in inconsistent long-period and mid-period W/SW swells are offering great surf in the 4ft range on the Surf Coast with an offshore NW wind, larger and to 6-8ft to the east, best in protected spots.

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Today's mix of W/SW swells are due to ease back through tomorrow, but we'll see a better aligned SW groundswell filling in through the day, generated by a stalling fetch of W/SW gales south-west of us overnight and this morning.

The Surf Coast should hang around 3-4ft all day, with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula (possibly a touch under sized at dawn if we fall in between swell pulses).

Winds look great for the Surf Coast with a NW tending N/NW offshore, favouring selected locations east of Melbourne through the day.

On Friday the swell should start easing from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ as morning N/NW winds shift more NW through the day and W/NW into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula may see a period of early N'ly winds, so keep an eye on the local wind observations for a window of cleaner conditions.

Into the weekend we'll see the swell continuing to ease with what looks to be local offshore winds Saturday morning (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE Mornington Peninsula). Size wise the beaches will be best on the Surf Coast with easing 2ft+ sets, and 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

A low point in swell is due on Sunday morning and a very intense mid-latitude low drifting in from the west will swing early N'ly winds, around to the NW through the morning and strong from the W/NW into the afternoon.

A very inconsistent and small new long-period W/SW groundswell is due to build through the afternoon and peak Monday, with it currently being generated by a significant storm in the southern Indian Ocean.

We'll likely see more size from the mid-latitude low moving across us though, with a fetch of W/SW-SW gales expected to be projected through our swell window Sunday evening as the low moves across us.

This will be localised mid-period energy and at the moments the models are divergent on the strength and position of the low, so we'll have to review the expected size on Friday. In any case it looks like winds will be from the western quadrant, persisting most of next week with smaller W/SW swells.

More on this Friday.