Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast the whole period, but only for the most experienced from later Wednesday through Friday

Recap

Great waves across the Surf Coast again Saturday with a our new long-period pulse of S/SW groundswell showing on the Cape Sorell wave buoy late Friday afternoon and filling in overnight.

Magnets saw good 4-5ft+ waves through the morning, easing off later in the day as conditions remained clean. To the east the exposed beaches pulsed to 6-8ft on the sets, with fun options in more protected locations, though a little slow and easing quickly.

The swell dropped much quicker than expected into Sunday morning leaving small weak leftover 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves to the east, smaller again into this morning as the we fall in between swells.

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Small levels of background swell should fill in this afternoon across both regions, coming in at an infrequent 2ft on the sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east as winds shift more N/NW.

Our slightly stronger long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell for tomorrow should provide a touch more energy through the morning, but it will be slow.

This swell was generated last week in our far swell window, around the Heard Island region.

The swell is due to arrive later today and peak tomorrow to an infrequent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, with 3-5ft sets to the east. This will be the smallest the surf will be for the coming period with a ton of activity due from the afternoon.

Since late last week we've seen the south-east Indian Ocean firing up in a big way with winter calibre storms developing under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

An initial broad and elongated fetch of severe-gale westerly winds set in motion a large active ocean sea state for a much more significant fetch of storm-force W/SW winds to move over, projected towards WA and the Bight.

We're still seeing a broad fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds in our western swell window south of WA, weakening while projecting west towards us this evening and tomorrow.

This should bring some mid-period swell mid-late tomorrow afternoon across our region, with a late increase in size towards 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will be strong but great for the Surf Coast all tomorrow, from the N/NW through the morning, shifting more NW-W/NW later in the day.

Now, the large long-period W/SW groundswell from the storm proper is expected to fill in on Wednesday, building strongly through the afternoon, though undersized early.

I'm still expecting this swell to peak through the evening Wednesday with a reinforcing large pulse for Thursday morning, with most of Wednesday consistent of mid-period and strengthening swell energy.

This can be seen in the model guidance with 4.7m of mid-period 12.1s W/SW swell at 12am/midnight Tuesday, incorrectly being combined with the new long-period energy, resulting in an over-forecast of the open ocean swell energy Wednesday midday at 12pm, with it showing 5m at 19.5s. This is not the case with the long-period energy building through the day from that 2.4m at 6am.

It's hard to put a size on the morning, but we're likely to see 4-6ft of mid-period swell on the Surf Coast and 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with the mix of mid-period and long-period energy, kicking to a larger 6-8ft late afternoon across magnets on the Surf Coast, if not for the odd larger one on dark. Conditions are looking excellent all day now, with fresh to strong NW winds, tending N/NW at periods.

Thursday still looks to offer the most size for me, with large 6-8ft+ waves across magnets on the Surf Coast during the early morning and 10-12ft surf to the east, with a large long-period reinforcing W/SW groundswell filling in through the day.

This will be generated by a secondary severe-low develop in our western swell window, south-west of WA tomorrow morning, projecting a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds on top of another active sea state.

More consistent, large surf should be seen across our state through the day Thursday, with sets likely to kick to 10ft on the Surf Coast magnets, with 12ft+ surf to the east. With the west in the swell, more protected breaks will be much smaller and more manageable.

This secondary low will be part of a broader slower moving low, with additional fetches of W/SW gales persisting through our swell window into the end of the week.

This will also help create excellent conditions for the Surf Coast reefs on Thursday with a gusty N/NW-NW breeze holding most of the day and only possibly swinging W/NW into the afternoon.

It will only be for the most experienced of surfers though with the large consistent and powerful sets.

We're looking at slowly easing large surf into Friday with less favourable winds from the W/SW-SW, though the Torquay region will likely see morning W/NW breezes.

We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.

Into the weekend, we're looking at a continuation of great surf with a moderate to large reinforcing pulse of W/SW groundswell Saturday morning from the slow moving low mid-late this week along with offshore NW winds, smaller and more N/NW-N breezes on Sunday.

This will be ahead of more vigorous winter calibre storm energy firing up south-west of WA, bringing more moderate to large surf early-mid next week, but we'll run through this on Wednesday.