Victoria Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 29th June)

Best Days: Sun/Mon: offshore west of Melbourne with small to moderate swells. Late Tues/Wed: chance for a new swell west of Melbourne though blustery. Fri onwards: extended period of large, windy surf. 

Recap: Wave heights have been generally small for the last few days, though a small rise was reported across some coasts on Thursday, before falling away today. 

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This weekend (June 30 - July 1)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

No change to the weekend surf outlook: I’m still not particularly enthused. 

The swell window’s been busy over the last few days, but the weather systems are all over the shop, and not particularly strong either. So, although we have a rising swell through Saturday towards a peak on Sunday, it’ll be quite windy (nowhere worthwhile east of Melbourne) and there won’t be a lot of size/strength on the Surf Coast to get overly exited about.

We’ll see a brief window of NW winds at dawn on Saturday, followed by gusty W’ly tending W/SW winds throughout the day. The early morning window will coincide with the smallest time frame all weekend, with inconsistent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and the afternoon increase will be accompanied by tricky cross-onshore winds. 

Winds will veer more NW for Sunday and this will probably offer the best waves of the weekend though without the usual strength we expect from the Southern Ocean. Wave heights should hold a steady 2-3ft across the Surf Coast. It’ll be larger but very wind affected east of Melbourne, without enough size for those locations offering shelter from this breeze. 

Next week (July 2 onwards)

A slight reinforcement in groundswell is expected on Monday, though in reality I’m not expecting much more size than what we’ll see on Sunday - perhaps a few bigger sets if we're lucky, though it'l be quite inconsistent. Winds will hold out from the NW so conditions will be clean across the Surf Coast but options will be limited east of Melbourne.

The rest of the forecast period is extremely tricky (though, when does the outlook not throw a curveball or three?). Whilst the Southern Ocean is very busy, most of the promising activity positioned inside our swell window is well to the far west, and thus not in a position to generate any meaningful size. 

However, a very broad, strong pre-frontal NW fetch will develop on Sunday and Monday (south of WA) ahead of a poorly aligned, and relatively moderate-strength front. The front itself is rather uninspiring however I’ve sometimes seen unusual W/SW swells spread back from these pre-frontal NW fetches - which somewhat defy convention - though that’s perhaps just due to the way these weather charts are projected on to this kind of map layout. There'll be a series of underlying, overlapping W/SW thru' SW groundswells in the mix too, though having been generated such a long way from the mainland they won't be contributing much size.

As such, despite the charts not showing anything noteworthy through the middle of the week, it’ll be worth keeping late Tuesday and Wednesday open for a possible rise in groundswell across the Surf Coast - let’s pencil in possible inconsistent 3ft+ sets (though I’d be reluctant to plan any highway miles around this event, it’s a low confidence source).

A series of unrelated fronts travelling through the Bight will strengthen N/NW winds locally so it’ll be a blustery affair anyway - good for plumage photos if nothing else, perhaps?

These fronts through the Bight will initially be poorly aligned for our coast but the broader pattern is tilting towards a classic wintereque series of broad, powerful Southern Ocean fronts and lows, that are likely to kick off an extended period of large windy waves across Victoria from Friday or Saturday onwards. 

More on that in Monday’s update. Have a great weekend!