Victoria Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th June)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: strong building groundswells, good surf west of Melbourne early mornings. Wind affected and choppy east of Melbourne. 

Recap: Easing swells and generally light N/NE winds have provided fun small waves across open beaches.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (June 21 - 22)

Want to receive an email when these Forecaster Notes are updated? Then log in here and update your preferences.

Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave.

Small surf is expected for the next few days, with moderate NW winds favouring the Surf Coast. Unfortunately we won’t see much size here; distant, intermittent energy will keep open beaches just rideable but it’ll be slow going. 

Winds won’t be too strong on Thursday so open beaches east of Melbourne should have workable options, but freshening NW winds are expected into Friday as a front approaches from the west, and this will cause problems. Wave heights will be an ideal size for the beachies though. 

This weekend (June 23 - 24)

We’ve got a few minor changes in store for the weekend outlook.

The models slightly tweaked the dynamics of the Southern Indian Ocean low generating our weekend’s long period groundswell; easing back the primary fetch but slightly intensifying a secondary polar well to the south (though still a long way from our coast). This will contribute the bulk of the long period energy this weekend.

Also, the models have changed the timing on the associated front pushing through our swell window over the coming days, and have nudged it a little further north since Monday’s runs (i.e. giving it more influence over our local winds and weather) - but this has slightly upped the mid-range swell potential.

As for local conditions, we’re now looking at a brief period of freshening W/NW winds Saturday morning, before the front moves through by mid-morning, delivering fresh SW winds thereafter. 

A weak secondary front to the SW on Saturday should assist in steering Sunday morning’s winds around to the W/NW in Torquay again, but we’re likely to see a return to the W/SW or SW throughout the day. SW winds will prevail across most other coasts (i.e. east of Melbourne) all weekend.

Despite these synoptic changes, the surf height figures I mentioned in Monday notes are probably still a good fit, building from 2-3ft to 3-4ft+ across the Surf Coast throughout Saturday (i.e. biggest surf with the least favourable conditions, much smaller earlier). However Sunday is unlikely to see an easing trend at all - in fact we may see a few bigger sets at reliable reefs - so perhaps 3-5ft is a better size estimate. Set waves will be somewhat inconsisent though. 

East of Melbourne, it’ll be too big and messy for open beaches but only small for protected spots inside Western Port. So, don't get your hopes up across this stretch.

Next week (June 25 onwards)

Easing swells and winds are expected next week; there’s a few relatively standard winter swell systems on the cards mid-late week but nothing to pin down at this stage.