Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 25th April)

Best Days: Torquay region early Friday, both coasts Saturday morning, and both coasts Monday

Recap

Small clean fading waves from the 1-2ft range on the Surf Coast and a good 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This morning the swell has faded further and winds from the western quadrant aren't really favouring the exposed beaches.

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This week and weekend (Apr 26 - 29)

Our small spike in weak SW swell for tomorrow morning doesn't look to provide much size at all now, with tiny surf due to continue on the Surf Coast around 1ft+ with 2ft+ waves to the east.

Through the day though we'll see some new mid-period W/SW swell developing across all coasts, generated by a weakening mid-latitude front pushing in from the west today.

This front will swing winds from a dawn W/NW'ly around to a fresh W/SW-SW breeze mid-morning while also bringing an increase in W/SW swell to 2ft+ later in the day on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The stronger groundswell from the earlier stages of the frontal progression between Heard Island and Western Australia will follow into Friday with magnets on the Surf Coast due to see inconsistent 3-4ft sets, and waves in the 6ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are unfortunately looking average with a SW tending S/SE breeze across most locations, while the Torquay region will likely see an early W/NW offshore.

Saturday's winds are now looking better as the swell eases, owing to a small high being pushed in quickly from the west by a vigorous storm in the south-east Indian Ocean.

We should see a light NE-N/NE breeze on the Mornington Peninsula and more variable winds on the Surf Coast with easing sets from 3ft+ and 4-5ft+ respectively.

Winds for Sunday morning are still a little dicey as a trough moves through the region, but we're likely to see this bringing SE winds as a new W/SW groundswell fills in ahead of a larger pulse late in the day but more so Monday.

These swells are being generated by a strong low that's currently forming just east of Heard Island.

A pre-frontal fetch of gale to severe-gale NW gales will produce a small initial W/SW groundswell for Sunday, coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

A much better aligned fetch of polar severe-gale to storm-force SW winds will generate a stronger W/SW groundswell for later in the day, likely kicking to 3-4ft and 5-6ft+ respectively by dark and peaking Monday to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds at this early stage are looking favourable and offshore from the N/NW, but we'll have to review this on Friday. Beyond this there's fun swells to come, but check back Friday.