Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd January)

Best Days: Keen surfers Surf Coast Tuesday morning, selected spots keen surfers every morning from Thursday with lighter onshore winds, Sunday east of Melbourne

Recap

Poor conditions Saturday with no decent swell and onshore winds, while Sunday we saw a lift in new swell and lighter more variable winds creating OK conditions for keen surfers across both regions.

Later in the day we saw the start of a strong new long-period SW groundswell filling in, peaking today to 3-4ft+ across the Surf Coast with workable variable winds and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula though with onshore winds.

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This week and weekend (Jan 23 – 28)

Today's SW groundswell was generated by a strong polar frontal progression developing in the Heard Island region and passing south under the country.

The swell will ease later today and further into tomorrow morning ahead of a new moderate sized W/SW groundswell later tomorrow, peaking Wednesday.

This is being generated by a secondary slightly weaker but closer positioned mid-latitude frontal progression that's currently south of WA and SA.

The swell off this system will be more consistent, with the surf ahead of the swell tomorrow coming in around 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, while Wednesday should see 3-4ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

A light morning SW'ly tomorrow morning will create OK conditions for keen surfers tomorrow morning on the Surf Coast, average to the east, while come Wednesday, S/SE breezes will spoil most spots.

The swell will ease slowly into the end of the week, slowed slightly by a weak trailing mid-latitude front pushing in behind the main swell generating system, though winds will remain average and from the SE both Thursday and Friday as a surface trough sits over the state.

We may see these winds only come in light each morning, creating OK conditions across a few select spots.

Into the weekend we're likely to see winds finally improving and tending more variable Saturday but light NE for the beaches Sunday. Size wise there isn't any new swell due, with easing 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula beaches Sunday.