Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th October)

Best Days: Both coasts Sunday and Monday mornings, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, Thursday both coasts

Recap

Small easing surf back from 2ft on the Surf Coast, best at swell magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula provided great clean 3-4ft waves. The swell faded into the afternoon as sea breezes developed across select locations.

This morning there was hardly any surf left at all, tiny on the Surf Coast while the Mornington Peninsula offered the odd stray 2ft set. The swell will continue to fade through the day as winds hold from the N'th.

This week and weekend (Oct 19 - 22)

The surf will be as flat as it gets tomorrow with no new swell due under N/NW winds, giving into an afternoon W/SW change.

This change will be linked to an intense mid-latitude front pushing in from the west, weakening as it approaches as (instead of the strengthening forecast on Monday).

With this a slight downgrade in the swell is expected but we should still see the Surf Coast building out of the W/SW through the day, small to tiny early and reaching 3ft+ by dark and easing slowly from a similar size Saturday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should kick to 6ft late and easing from a similar size Saturday.

Some trailing frontal activity generating two additional W/NW fetches through our swell window should produce some reinforcing SW swell for Sunday and Monday morning, keeping sets around 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing into the afternoon and further Tuesday.

Now winds over the coming period are fairly average with a gusty W/SW tending S/SW breeze on Friday, and persistent SW-W/SW winds all weekend. The Torquay region will likely see an early W/NW breeze on Saturday, much more likely on Sunday morning and for a slightly longer period.

Similar winds are due Monday as the swell starts to ease, cleanest around Torquay through the morning.

Winds Tuesday are still a little divergent but hopefully we'll see more variable breezes developing.

There's no major surf due through the week besides small background SW swells, but more on this Friday.