Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th August)

Best Days: Keen surfers Surf Coast dawn tomorrow, Surf Coast Sunday and exposed beaches into the afternoon, exposed beaches Monday, Surf Coast Tuesday for small waves

Recap

Good fun waves across the Surf Coast yesterday once the morning tide dropped out with sets in the 3ft range with the odd 4ft'er at swell magnets. To the east of Melbourne, Western Port was the pick around the higher tide.

Today a strong new S/SW swell is filling in with good 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast with a gusty W/NW breeze, and we'll likely see bigger sets through the day as the swell peaks. An onshore change is due early afternoon, so make the most of it before then.

This weekend and next week (Aug 19 - 25)

The polar fetch of S/SW winds responsible for today's strong S/SW swell has moved east and out of our swell window. With this we'll see the swell easing through the weekend, and our models are over-forecasting the size, with it combining a new long-period W/SW groundswell that was generated under WA, just out of our swell window.

What we can expect is easing sets from the 3ft range (if not for the odd bigger sneaker at dawn) across the Surf Coast tomorrow morning out of the S/SW, smaller from 2ft Sunday.

The Mornington Peninsula should ease from the 4-6ft range tomorrow morning, smaller and from 3-4ft+ Sunday.

Conditions tomorrow are looking generally poor with a moderate to fresh SW'ly across all spots, possibly W'ly for a brief period around Torquay.

Sunday will be much cleaner with a light NW morning breeze, tending variable out of the N/NE into the afternoon.

As touched on Wednesday, some small SW groundswell is due into early next week, generated by polar frontal activity south and south-west of WA.

The initial front linked to Monday's swell has been downgraded, and we're now only looking at patchy frontal activity through our swell window.

We're hardly due to see any size above 1-2ft on the Surf Coast Monday, with inconsistent 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Gusty N/NE winds will luckily favour the exposed beaches, with a late onshore change due, but likely after dark.

Tuesday morning is expected to remain small, but later in the day and more so Wednesday a better mix of long-period and inconsistent SW groundswell mixed in with some closer-range and weaker W/SW swell for the afternoon is due.

The long-range energy is being produced by a strong polar front in the Heard Island region and will peak Wednesday, while the short-range energy is expected from the remnants of the storm projecting up and towards us Sunday and Monday.

No major size is due with 3ft+ sets on the cards for the Surf Coast and 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as the swell peaks Wednesday. An onshore change may bring with it some windswell as well and onshore SW winds, but we'll confirm this Monday.

Longer term we're looking at a much more significant polar frontal progression developing in our south-western swell window, producing swell next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!