Great Sunday, fun Monday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th April)
Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday, east of Melbourne early Monday, Surf Coast Monday and possibly early Tuesday
Recap
Average conditions across all regions yesterday morning with an easing mix of S/SW windswell and SW groundswell. Into the mid-afternoon though, winds tended light offshore across the Surf Coast with an approaching front, providing fun waves into the evening.
This morning the Surf Coast was great with clean straight 3ft sets around Torquay due to the arrival of a reinforcing W/SW swell, while further east conditions remained poor.
This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)
Sunday is still the standout day of the weekend, but looking at tomorrow, and the surf will ease this afternoon, bottoming out early morning.
The Torquay region should be clean with an early W/NW breeze and 2ft of swell, but an onshore SW change is expected mid-late morning.
With this change a fun sized increase in mid-range W/SW swell is due, produced by the front linked to it passing under the country today. A good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds are being generated while the front approaches from the west-southwest.
Also in the mix will be a less consistent long-period SW groundswell, generated earlier in the week by a vigorous low in the southern Indian Ocean.
Both swells are due to build into the afternoon, reaching 3-4ft+ across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, peaking overnight and easing from a similar size Sunday morning.
Conditions are still looking excellent all day Sunday as an approaching front creates light to moderate NW tending variable winds. There's only now a very slim chance that the Mornington Peninsula will see a N'ly breeze, with a NW'ly more than likely.
Next week onwards (May 1 - 5)
Our change due Monday looks to be delayed a little now, allowing fresh N/NW offshores to blow most of the day (likely N'ly early east of Melbourne), with the change arriving around dark.
The weekend's swell will continue to ease, but a new W/SW swell generated by a patchy fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds will keep good sized sets hitting the state.
The Surf Coast should ease from 2-3ft, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Monday evening's change will bring with it some new swell, but the quality will be lacking. A small W/SW groundswell should be in the mix, but the dominant energy will be mid-range S/SW swell from a fetch of strong S/SW winds projecting up into us.
We're looking at W/SW swell energy in the 3ft range Tuesday on the Surf Coast, possibly bigger later, with a further increase to 3-5ft from the S/SW Wednesday. We may see a morning W/NW breeze Tuesday but from mid-morning a SW change will create poor conditions with S/SW winds Wednesday.
Easing surf will then be seen into the end of the week as winds slowly tend more variable.
Longer term, a vigorous storm developing in the south-east Indian Ocean is due to generate an XL swell for WA and Indo, with moderate to large W/SW groundswell energy expected to impact us next Sunday. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Ooooh Craigs, good forecast.
My buddy Rick & I are lathering an extra coat of Hollywood Bronze to each other right now so we've got ultimate ab definition on the faceys all weekend.
I even did an extra set of dips last night and am now carb loading.
You say Gary, I say G
Gary
G
Gary
G
Its funny. Call it the 'Peninsula Phenomenon' where 3-5 days out models will indicate alright conditions but as we get closer they turn for the worse whereas if the models 3-5 days indicate average-bad conditions there pretty spot on, it nevers takes a turn for the better...
I demand a scientific study of the highest order
Nick, how quickly you forget, you have summer, we have winter.
Climatotolgy shows that the "summer" window of favourable winds ain't anywhere near as long as the autumn/winter/spring window of favourable winds for Torquay.
Throw in a tricky bank regime and a lack of reliable reefs (i.e. across all size ranges) and it's easy to see how MP surfers can become a little grumpy at times.
Or, maybe they're just getting old.
'Throw in a tricky bank regime and a lack of reliable reefs (i.e. across all size ranges) and it's easy to see how MP surfers can become a little grumpy at times'
Replace 'tricky' with 'steadily declining'.
Im not saying this week. But as a generalisation
Nick, that's because the predominant wind direction for Vicco (west thru' north-west) is unfavourable for the MP. What it suggests is that more often than not, Victorian surf conditions are better suited to the Surf Coast.
So those times when the model is calling great conditions for the MP well in advance, it's essentially going against long term climatology. Which increases the chances it will get it wrong (especially at long lead times).
I understand that this time of year and for the next 6 months that winds from the westerly quadrant will be prominent and its generally when what i was getting at happens. For instance a north wind is suggested from the approaching weather pattern/system by the models under a week out, but when it comes closer to crunch time it will usually go more westerly. Theres hardly ever a instance when its vice versa. My understanding models run off data from past weather patterns so if a pattern that was forecast N then becomes W cant models learn from that?
Models don't quite "run off data from past weather patterns" - they apply the laws of physics to a set of initialised atmospheric conditions.
There are many contributing factors to why the models perform well/average/poor under specific circumstances. One of the main issues affecting poor model performance is a lack of quality (global) source data to initialise the model with.
We've got a small footprint of radiosondes (weather balloons) across Australia, which provides data from two or sometimes four ascents per day (a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere). However this is nothing compared to Europe and North America, where there are many thousands of radiosonde locations (usually airports).
And there's hardly any data being recorded across the Southern and Indian Oceans, for obvious reasons - so the initialisation in these regions is largely approximated by satellites.
And if the initial input data is wrong, then the models will propagate and exaggerate these errors over time.
as an average punter who loves surfing and windsurfing who has been looking at MSLP maps daily even before 'space food sticks' and 'rollups' were invented i find this a very interesting subject :)
the tools for planning activities are quite good on the bom at the moment….they have progressed a long way….throw it all out the door with a trough or a westerly air flow.
looking forward to what the come up with next for us tragics hopefully a sailing forecast….im quite confident on how to read what they put out sometimes they give false hope which you can get sucked into a small amount of times... e.g. westerly 25-35knts decreasing to 15-20 late this evening (click on marine forecast and someone has spilt red paint and arrows over vic) this is a forecast the government dep has issued too stop the two blokes deciding if they should take there 12ft tinny out for the day…when it should read…vigorous westerly airflow reaching up to 35 knots for very short periods of time from 11am-2pm typical of this wind direction abating rapidly late afternoon with 10-20knt gusts.
and a quick rant…wind speed in kilometres per hour…wind northerly 25kph….this means nothing to me and have absolutely no gauge or read on it when that is mentioned…..whoever introduced kph for wind should actually be shot. i have told bom that they rebutted with they have given people the option.
With relation to the models getting it wrong . During the winter half of the year you'll find the central location of the low Belt or the actual leading frontal progression northward will be slightly out . And when this happens as we know the winds project slightly outwards from the central circulation . So in winters case it often wrong with a westerly bias of Nth due to us being under the influence of the Sth side of Highs and nth side of lows , with the most dynamic being the Low which is inward flow . And summer it's opposite as we are nth of the highs and south of the lows with error bias more easterly of Nth from the outward flow of the most dynamic feature being the ridge's or highs .
Gee you guys are obviously into different models to ol' Gary
Generally, Gary forecasts good times for the models: not the other way round.
Haha, one of your better ones G Love!
Gary is really excited about this swell tomorrow Craig.
He's been watching the AFL and has really found some blokes that channel the G: notably Stevie J, and the entire GWS amd North Melbourne teams.
GAry can't believe he's just discovered AFL. Oiled up men, tights shorts, it's everything the G loves. The main venue for the sport is even called the G!
I'd imagine you're a G-Long supporter Gaz?
(yuk yuk yuk)
Of course, although that's my nickname at the gym too.
Gary has a particularly long torso
Well well well.
Gary took the 13th apostle out to Gary's this morning (the wave that the WSL insist on calling 'Bell's Beach') and it looks like the Surf Coast council have finally responded to my letter writing campaign and booked Gary's favourite crane company: 'Associated Rigging' to build a big Gary G statue at the top of the steps.
Gary can't wait to see the statue once it's fully erect
Summarising what Southey is saying..
Because of all the different forces acting on wind moving around lows/highs, we see winds directed more in towards the lows centre, and out of highs.
So if a low on the chart looks like it's got a NW pressure gradient, with the clockwise rotation, winds actually tend more N'th.
With a high though, if it looks easterly, with the anti-clockwise rotation and direction out-wards the winds will tend more south-east.
Example below, but flip everything as this if for the Northern Hemisphere (ie low spins clockwise)..
"Example below, but flip everything as this if for the Northern Hemisphere (ie low spins clockwise).."
Ha ha...... I reckon you're trying to confuse us Craig.... :)
Haha yeah sorry about that, googled for SH charts and couldn't find any decent ones. Tis a bit confusing :p
Here Gannet http://i.imgur.com/ekzi4wr.png
Nice work!
Yeah cool strictlybiz.
I just think of the winds falling off the highs and into the lows.
Yeah nice thinking.