Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 23rd December)

It's only two sleeps to go until Christmas Day. If you're looking for a surfer's perfect present and don't want to endure the shopping centre masses you can pick up a Swellnet Pro Subscription gift pack. Treat someone else or treat yourself and get a free Swellnet leggy and surf tested sunscreen: https://www.swellnet.com/pro/gift

Best Days: East of Melbourne Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings, Surf Coast mid-morning Monday before the onshore change

Recap

OK conditions yesterday morning with a light to moderate onshore wind and decent sized swell across the state. The afternoon was poor with fresher southerly breezes.

This morning the swell was back to a small 2ft on the Surf Coast, best at 13th Beach and Fairhaven with fun 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Dec 24 - 30)

There's no real change to the weekend's forecast.

The surf is due to become tiny on the Surf Coast with inconsistent 1ft sets all weekend while the Mornington Peninsula should pick up infrequent 2-3ft waves.

Tomorrow morning a variable tending E/NE wind is likely on the Mornington Peninsula before SE sea breezes kick in, similar Sunday but more from the NE through the morning.

Now, into Boxing Day our strong but inconsistent W/SW groundswell is on track with satellite observations confirming a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force (up to 55kt) winds produced in our far western swell window.

The low generating this fetch has since weakened and will continue to weaken while stalling south-west of WA today and tomorrow.

The swell is expected to arrive through the morning, with small surf at dawn, building to an inconsistent 3ft at exposed spots on the Surf Coast through the afternoon (possibly the odd bigger bomb) and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions at dawn before the swell kicks will be clean with a fresh N'ly breeze, tending slightly more N/NW through the morning ahead of a S/SW change late morning/midday.

Therefore if planning a surf on the Surf Coast, go as late as you can during the morning, but keep an eye on the observations for the change incoming from the west.

Tuesday is still looking poor as the swell eases under a strengthening E/SE breeze as a tropical low tracking down from the north-west of the country and surface trough from the west interact.

These systems look to dip quickly south of South Australia Tuesday, but we'll see strong E/SE winds developing Tuesday kicking up a windswell for the Surf Coast, and then N/NE tending N/NW winds Wednesday.

There isn't due to be much in the way of swell though, with fading E/SE windswell on the Surf Coast from 1-2ft, and background W/SW groundswell easing from 2ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term Thursday looks to be tiny to small, with a secondary inland low possibly moving across us late week bringing an increase in windswell. More on this Monday. Have a Merry Christmas and great weekend!