Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st December)

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Best Days: Both coasts Sunday and Monday mornings, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, Thursday both coasts

Recap

Really poor conditions yesterday with tiny amounts of swell and a fresh onshore wind, while today some new W/SW swell is building with the strongest surf due this afternoon.

Torquay was clean with a morning offshore and 3ft sets, but the early high tide created a few issues. Bigger bumpier waves were seen to the east. An onshore change is due late morning and we should see the surf reaching 3-4ft on the Surf Coast this afternoon with 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Dec 22 - 25)

This afternoon's peak in W/SW groundswell will be followed by a gradual easing trend through tomorrow, further Friday and smaller again into Saturday.

Conditions are a little tricky tomorrow, with the American GFS model going for an early variable breeze. The higher resolution BOM 3 day model has a light to moderate S/SE'ly though, so one eye on the local observations and other on the surfcams for a dawny would be best. If the wind is only light onshore, the Surf Coast beaches should still be OK.

The Surf Coast should still have 3ft+ sets at magnets through the morning, with easing 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

The beaches east of Melbourne are still looking fun Friday with an E/NE to NE breeze due to develop along with fun easing 3-4ft sets, while the Surf Coast will be small and easing from 2ft.

The weekend is looking very slow swell wise, with inconsistent background W/SW energy from the southern Indian Ocean expected to keep the Mornington Peninsula beaches active.

The Surf Coast is due to be tiny and around 1ft, but infrequent 2-3ft sets should continue east of Melbourne Saturday and Sunday.

Winds are looking decent for these locations with E/NE-NE offshores ahead of sea breeze, but we'll have to review this Friday as the European model has a slightly less favourable forecast.

Next week onwards (Dec 26 onwards)

Into Boxing day a new long-range but strong long-period W/SW groundswell is due to fill in.

This is being generated by a very strong low firing up in the southern Indian Ocean this afternoon, producing a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through our western swell window.

The low will weaken south-west of WA resulting in a fair bit of loss in size and consistency.

In saying this we should see the Surf Coast building to an inconsistent 3ft through the mid-late afternoon with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but an early N'ly breeze is due to give into a S'ly change.

The swell is expected to ease Tuesday under strong E/SE winds kicking up a low quality windswell. More on this Friday.