Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th December)

Best Days: Surf Coast early Wednesday, east of Melbourne Friday and Saturday mornings

Recap

Fun clean 2-3ft waves Saturday morning around Torquay before a strong onshore change moved through late morning.

The swell from this change came in a bit above expectations on Sunday with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and although winds were from the W early, the windswelly nature of the swell meant conditions weren't great. Further east the swell was larger but a mess.

Today the swell has eased back to a smaller 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with offshore winds, favouring the beaches.

This week and weekend (Dec 20 - 25)

The surf will bottom out tomorrow and with W/SW winds, there'll be nowhere to get a decent wave in.

Our new mix of long-range and mid-range W/SW groundswell for Wednesday is still on the cards, but the peak looks to be into the afternoon, when winds aren't ideal.

The long-range energy has been created by the early stages of a mid-latitude low in the southern Indian Ocean, tracking slowly east while generating W/SW gales.

The low has since weakened and is moving under the country while generating a weaker fetch of strong W/SW winds through our swell window.

The system is expected to strengthen slightly while south-west of us tomorrow, helping to produce a more consistent swell for Wednesday.

Size wise the Surf Coast should offer 3ft waves through the morning, increasing to 3-4ft through the afternoon with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, building to 6ft+.

A morning W'ly breeze will favour Torquay, before shifting SW mid-late morning.

Easing surf is expected on Thursday from 3ft+ and 5-6ft respectively although a lingering S/SE'ly will create average conditions.

Into Friday the Mornington Peninsula will become fun as winds tend NE and the swell continues to drop from 3-4ft. The Surf Coast is likely to be easing from 2ft and best on the beaches.

The swell is expected to be small Saturday with an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell but winds will remain good for the beaches to the east with 2-3ft sets.

Christmas Day will remain small but variable winds may be seen through the morning, best to the east again.

Longer term a moderate sized W/SW groundswell is on the cards for Monday with possible light winds, but more on this Wednesday.