Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th November)

Best Days: East of Melbourne keen surfers tomorrow morning, Sunday morning east of Melbourne, Monday, beaches both coasts

Recap

Good fun waves across both coasts yesterday with clean 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast, easing into the afternoon.

Today, as expected was poor, with small to tiny amounts of swell and light winds.

This weekend (Nov 19 - 20)

Tomorrow morning is expected to start slow with a possible 1-2ft wave on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

We'll see the surf build through the day as a mix of W/SW groundswell from a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales moving in under the country from the Indian Ocean, and S/SW groundswell from an intense low to our south fills in.

This low has formed super late in our swell window, but a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds were generated, producing some decent swell for later tomorrow.

The Surf Coast should see 2-3ft sets late, with 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, while the W/SW groundswell is expected to peak Sunday to a similar size (but more so 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula).

Winds tomorrow are actually looking a bit better with a light variable breeze from the SW due across most locations ahead of S/SE sea breezes. The Surf Coast should see an early W/NW breeze.

Sunday will be best on the beaches to the east with a light E/NE offshore ahead of SE sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Nov 21 onwards)

Monday morning is looking fun across the beaches east of Melbourne again with easing surf from 3-4ft (2ft Surf Coast) and a fresh N/NE offshore wind ahead of a shift to the N/NW through the afternoon and then late change.

This change will be linked to an intense mid-latitude low forming right on our doorstep, with a burst of strong W/SW winds aimed through our swell window.

A small increase in swell Tuesday is due from this, but only to a weak 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with W/SW winds.

Wednesday doesn't look much better with similar sized waves and an inconsistent W/SW groundswell under W/SW breezes.

Longer term a better SW swell may be seen into next weekend, but we'll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!