Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 16th November)

Best Days: East of Melbourne and Surf Coast beaches tomorrow, Sunday morning and Monday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Tiny clean waves on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, while a shallow onshore change moved through during the day, easing back and cleaning back up on the Surf Coast late.

A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell filled in, providing 2ft+ sets across exposed breaks, while today has offered more size to 2-3ft with light offshores across most spots. The Mornington Peninsula was a bit bigger but bumpy and less than ideal.

A light onshore winds has now kicked in on the Surf Coast but it shouldn't do too much damage to the swell.

This week and weekend (Nov 17 - 20)

Tomorrow morning is still looking great for the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island with an offshore N/NE wind and easing 3-4ft sets. A shift to more N'ly breezes is due into the afternoon (N/NW on the Surf Coast) favouring slightly more protected spots.

Exposed beaches will only be around 2ft though, smaller into the afternoon.

Friday isn't looking too good anymore with a westerly change due and no decent surf. Clean conditions are due early on the Surf Coast but it will be tiny, while the Mornington Peninsula will be small and bumpy.

The weekend is now looking a little better, more so Sunday.

The front linked to Friday's weak westerly winds will produce a small W/SW swell for Saturday morning, with 1-1.5ft sets due on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Besides an early W/NW breeze though, conditions will remain average with a W/SW breeze.

Into the afternoon and more so Sunday a mix of new W/SW swell and smaller S/SW swell are due.

The S/SW swell will be produced by a small and tight fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds in our southern swell window tomorrow, and won't provide much size.

The W/SW groundswell should be generated by a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales moving in from the southern Indian Ocean and south of the Bight over the next two days.

Swell magnets on the Surf Coast should see 3ft sets, larger to 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are looking good for locations east of Melbourne with a variable tending E/NE breeze ahead of SE sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Nov 21 onwards)

Easing surf and fresh N/NE tending NW winds are due on Monday, favouring beaches to the east again. For the rest of the week we're likely to see small to moderate amounts of W/SW swell with winds from the western quadrant, but more on this Friday.