Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th November)

Best Days: Surf Coast Wednesday morning keen surfers, exposed beaches Thursday

Recap

Besides improving waves on the Mornington Peninsula Saturday with developing offshore winds and small fun surf, the weekend was poor. A westerly change moved in shortly after lunch, creating terrible conditions, while Sunday was clean on the Surf Coast but tiny.

Today an increase in average windswell has come in as expected with onshore winds and no decent surfing options.

This week (Nov 15 - 18)

Abating winds and easing amounts of windswell are due into this afternoon as the low that's been affecting our weather since later Friday continues moving east.

There isn't expected to be any decent swell around early tomorrow with 1-1.5ft of leftover windswell on the Surf Coast and maybe 2ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Our new inconsistent W/SW groundswell for the afternoon is still on track, followed by a slightly more consistent but weaker increase from the SW Wednesday.

Tomorrow afternoon's swell was produced by a distant but good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales through our swell window, with infrequent 2-3ft sets expected to develop at swell magnets on the Surf Coast, and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The more consistent but weaker SW swell is being generated by a small low currently south-west of us. This low isn't too strong but should keep similar sized surf hitting both coasts through Wednesday, easing Thursday from 2ft and 3-4ft respectively.

Winds tomorrow won't be ideal, especially with the tiny surf early. A morning W/NW'ly should create clean conditions on the Surf Coast, but this will shift W/SW by the time the swell starts kicking.

A moderate SW'ly is due Wednesday, easing ahead of SE sea breezes, but the Torquay region is likely to see an early W/NW'ly, creating fun surf.

Thursday east of Melbourne looks to be the pick of the week with offshore N/NE winds, persisting all day, and even possibly tending N/NW on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, with the fun easing swell.

Come Friday there isn't expected to much size left on the coast at all, tiny on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula will be windy with fading 2ft sets.

This weekend onwards (Nov 19 onwards)

The weekend's isn't looking too flash, with an onshore change due to move in Saturday as a surface trough moves in from the west.

This will spoil a small increase in S/SW groundswell from a late forming low south-west of Tassie late week, mixed in with a very long-range W/SW groundswell.

Size wise, nothing major is expected, with a peak due Sunday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with S/SE winds.