Poor surf until Friday, small run from the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 1st August)

Best Days: East of Melbourne keen surfers Thursday morning, more so Friday and then from the weekend through early next week

Recap

Good fun waves across both coasts on Saturday with surf in the 3ft range west of Melbourne, and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under northerly breezes.

Into Sunday the swell really dropped away more than expected with small clean 2ft leftover waves on the Surf Coast and bumpy 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, improving later as winds tended NE.

This morning a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell due across the coast has failed to offer any real size at all. This swell was generated in an unfavourable part of our western swell window, under WA, and as a result small inconsistent 2ft sets were continuing on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft waves to the east.

This week (Aug 2 - 5)

While today's expected W/SW groundswell was a little undercooked, tomorrow's larger long-period W/SW groundswell is still on track with the swell impacting the South West of WA in the XXL range yesterday.

The mid-latitude frontal system generating this swell passed under WA and through the Bight over the weekend, with the swell due to arrive later in the day today, peaking tomorrow morning.

Unfortunately conditions are still on track to be poor with an onshore change later today expected to persist tomorrow from the S'th, fresh and gusty in strength. Size wise the groundswell should come in around an inconsistent 4-6ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast with 8-10ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the afternoon.

A reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due through the afternoon, but not above the size through the morning, with both swells easing into Wednesday as onshore S/SE winds persist.

Come Thursday a new moderate sized W/SW groundswell is expected to fill in, produced by a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales pushing in from the south-east Indian Ocean today and tomorrow. While not ideally aligned, wind speeds should reach the severe-gale range, with a kick in size to 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Surf Coast due at swell magnets and 6ft or so on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will improve but remain average for the Surf Coast with a light to moderate E'ly breeze, freshening from the E/SE through the afternoon.

Friday looks the day to surf this week with easing surf from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula under a NE breeze.

This weekend onwards (Aug 6 onwards)

A large blocking high will deflect any major swell generating systems away from us into the end of this week, persisting through the weekend and early next week.

This will direct favourable offshore winds from the northern quadrant across the state but with no real swell. Swell magnets east of Melbourne will be the go.

This pattern doesn't look to change until mid-late next week, but more on this Wednesday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 12:16pm

Who writes up the surf reports for morn pen? Is it someone from a office elsewhere?

geek's picture
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geek Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 1:50pm

One of life's great mysteries Nick but I wouldn't be surprised if it was done in an office/bed with it so far off the mark often

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:07pm

I do is there a problem?

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 12:31pm

Why's that Nick? What are you seeing?

(Im working in town today, so haven't seen it..)

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The_Kook Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 2:35pm

Do you mean the daily surf reports Nick?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 4:16pm

The MP is one of the harder regions to report (and forecast!) for, because it covers one of the the most diverse coastlines around - long open beaches that go for weeks, if not months without banks, and a large fickle bay with great reefs that only work properly on very big swells. Throw in the complexity of the Flinders region, and it's a tricky place to try to surf on a regular basis. More times often than not, even when the elements align properly, most of this region still fails to produce good surf due to one factor or another (usually banks and/or tides). Hence its nickname the 'Hoax Coast'. 

geek's picture
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geek Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:20pm

Which is also argubly its best feature for the locals, so hard to pick when its on for your average punter. My main issue is when the report undercooks the size. Couple weekends ago was a prime example when it was said to be a 'perfect' size for the back beaches but was a heaving 6ft mess on the whole stretch. Folks from Melbourne come down based on the report and everybody ends up at the couple spots that can handle the size meaning 30+ ppl out. Nobody wins then

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:24pm

Melbourne folks? The peninsula pretty much is Melbourne now the amount of "local" surfers who do the commute there for work they can hardly complain about Melbourne people travelling to surf.

#cakeandeatit

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 6:04pm

No one from my end is commuting to the city. The biggest 'commute' for me was blair > red hill. Due too text having no context/tone, this is simply acknowledging my blessing, not gloating.

As for the hoax coast or least coast. I would agree with that but i wouldnt change a thing about it either. The amount of times ive had great surfs just with my mates or even solo im prepared to go through the shit that also comes with :)

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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:23pm

Ben you couldn't be more off the mark mate the peninsula pumps is always consistent plenty of waves for all abilities and conveniently close to Melbourne best region in Vic.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:12pm

I think Nick means the daily report, not Craig's forecast.

The daily report really should be a piece of cake... Look at surf, report what's in front of you.

And anyone who has been here long enough, will know what flinders and pt Leo would be like just from checking the ocean beaches.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:17pm

Your right Goofy its piece of piss sometimes I just look at my weathervane.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:32pm

Thanks for the confirmation Junk

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 5:56pm

Yup. Just the daily surf reports. Ill check the surf every morning before work and generally each morning on weekends and like 4/7 times the report is just whack. I dont even understand the rating system. The photo reports have been absent for a while now yet your told in the morning update to wait for the 8am report for a photo. Dan from peninsula surf used to do it at rye carrie accompanied with a 8am photo (his reports where off here and there and he was looking at it, i just put that down too different eyes, different scales). I dont have a issue with it as ill just check for myself , its rather just a curiosity of mine.

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 6:47pm

Did swellnet just crash? Around 630ish?

Anywhoo i dont mean to be picking at the site. I throughly enjoy the site and espically for free. (I do suscribe but :)) Im just a curious person and im sure that it will be the death of me.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 7:00pm

Its a valid question Nick but does it really matter what is written in the report?

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 7:13pm

Ahaha blokes trying to claim that they would change a thing, that they don't care that it's the least coast, that even if the swell and winds are good it doesn't necessarily mean it will be good because of the banks and tide. Nick bone have a spell mate the amount of times you surf Mornington with a few blokes out would be very rare. Not knowing if the surf will be good well that isn't fun you say it makes it good but um no why would you live there. If you go to the surf coast it's a nice SW swell 4-5ft and at light NW wind you no what your are getting pumping surf your rock up at Mornington your not sure whether it will be closing out or fat it's just shit mate. Please don't say you like the way it is, the wind is always shit, it's howls like crazy get out of there while you can

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 7:27pm

*Wouldn't change a thing...

Not would

That's all, carry on.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 7:56pm

Thank for the tip Victoriasurfing1 its not like people needed more encouragement to go there. I can only draw a few conclusions 1. Your trying to divert peoples attention from other spots 2. You have a vested interest in attracting visitors to the surf coast or maybe just maybe like many others you just love to surf with 50 of your best mass when "it's a nice SW swell 4-5ft and at light NW wind ".

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 7:27pm

Ok

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:22pm

Yeah wharfjunkie I am trying to divert people from going to a hidden gem I found on Mornington by making them go somewhere else by saying mornington is shit um no I think it is a coast which is no good. Can you please explain why this might not be the case which is that it is good? I would like to here some reasons some blokes like nick love the coast.
I don't have a vested interest well I guess I do if that is where I think the best waves are and remember the surf coast is very long so there are a lot of spots which will not have 50 people put I am guessing you are referring to bells and winki which a lot of the times in winter are not very crowded maybe in summer mate. Under 4-5ft the options are endless.

I do have one question to the like of nick and goofy. What do you do when Mornington is 4-5ft and WNW do you just not surf cuase I mean on the surf coast it's 2-3ft and awesome but Mornington it's sloppy. That what I don't get by living in mornginton you automatically won't surf as much. I mean the best waves are on the other coast go there. If it's 8-10 ft on surf coast NW sure you can go to point Leo but why surf 6ft point Leo when you could be surfing 8-10ft I just don't get it

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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:29pm

So you surf 8-10ft over there?

blackers's picture
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blackers Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:33pm

Hey VicSurf1 I'm with Junk and Mr Bone. Plenty of good waves down here when you know where to look, and plenty of days when the surf coast is small, cross shore shite. Glad you dont bother, we have enough numpties who do head down and even one less is a blessing.

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:46pm

Cant you just be happy with your coast and others be happy with theres :)

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Victoriasurfing1 Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:55pm

Doesn't get 8-10 foot very often goofy I am not saying I would surf it that big but goofy you sound like you been in some heavy conditions before so next big swell hit up surf coast.
I don't live on either coast I just observe both cost and clearly Mornington is not the place to be when the swell gets big. I think Mornington at 3-4ft mid tide can be fun but it's so fickle just don't no why you wouldnt hit up surf coast.

Blackers if surf coast is small and cross shore than just go Barwon.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 8:57pm

No some people can't Nick type of bloke who would be shit canning his mates new car, house even wife because its all a threat to his sense of superiority.

Nick Bone's picture
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Nick Bone Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:25pm

Huh? Mate, if you saw my car im in position shit can no one, only a handful of my friends owm there home and im stoked for them for that. I also get along with all my mates girlfriends/partners/wives. I dont understand why i would be feeling otherwise??

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:28pm

That wasn't directed at you mate.

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:03pm

Bloody hell wharfjunkie I don't live on either coast so nicks point is invalid, I am just commenting on the two spots and how Mornington just isn't good which is my opinion correct me if you think Mornington is good and some reasons why it is good

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:12pm

Mate theres plenty of good things about the peninsula I'm not about to name locations known or not to justify my position either. Perhaps its best to stick to the surf coast the reliability will make it easy due to the commute I suppose.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:19pm

Ill tell you my favourite thing about it VS1,

Its when its 8ft and closing out out the back, onshore/offshore doesn't matter, you are surfing 4-5ft punchy, powerful, fun as fuck double up re-forms with just ya mates that blokes like your self and half the dhd riding west coast/melbourne lads couldn't surf because you've never surfed a rip bowl in ya life and you'd be out the back getting sets on the head in 5mins because the biggest rip you've ever been in is when it gets a bit windy in the StKilda sea baths.

I'm off to bed

hooroo

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Victoriasurfing1 Monday, 1 Aug 2016 at 9:53pm

Hahaha wohoo that sounds so fun 4-5ft punchy reforms which are onshore or offshore which are in a rip so your fighting against a current with your best mates and getting waves. God can you please read what you just said you just wrote down the shittiest session I have ever heard. So its the middle of winter on a weekday and it's 8ft NW wind at Mornington and your surfing cross shore 4-5ft punchy reforms in a rip while I am surfing 4-5ft perfect offshore at a point break with 15 other blokes out with no rip so I am actully able to speak to my mates instead of always fighting against a rip to get chunky reforms. Look I think on behalf of everyone at swellnet everyone would rather surf a point break that's offshore and 4-5ft. Goofy you have officially lost the plot

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superfish Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 10:06am

Fuck youre an arrogant prick. The amount of words you just wrote above on an online forum demonstrates how large a kook you are. Either very lonely or bored or angry with some aspect of your life so you wanna criticise others. Every spot has their day, I personally have had some great sessions on the Peninsula with not many people out, why would you try and convince more people to come surf with you? Fucking classic Melbourner coming down with all your buddies, stick to 4ft Bells. FYI, a pointbreak is not necessarily better than a rip bowl. I have had much better thicker pits at a rip bowl than Bells/Winki. Good Day

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Veiny Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 1:26pm

rather surf a ripbowl than a burger pointbreak with 60 of your closest mates

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Endless Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 11:07am

I'm curious vicsurf1 where you find your "perfect" waves for the summer months on the surf coast when it's pro dominantly 2-3ft and SE as yes it's probably more consistent during the winter months when the water is 12 degrees and the sun goes down at 5:30 and I'm tipping your from the city so you probably don't get to many after work surfs with that time frame so your one or maybe two surfs a week on the surf coast in "perfect"waves with your car pulling flog mates come pack out a surf spot every time you surf. I'll happily keep surfing the peninsula because I don't have to deal with kooks like you because it's only unpredictable if you don't no where to look

Victoriasurfing1's picture
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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 4:11pm

First veiny mate your surly not serious you would rather surf a ripbowl than 4-5ft at a point break and offshore and what's with your 60 mates in winter on a weekday it's hardly ever crowded so I Know your jealous that your stuck with sloppy reforms where your stuck in a rip trying to catch a reform. Don't worry mate just stick to Mornington and I will just stick to the beach breaks, point breaks and reef break which are so much better on the surf coast, ps I will be getting the better waves

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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 4:18pm

Yeah endless look mate in summer there are so many waves to go and surf if you no where to look even if the winds are SE, but you would be used to sloppy winds doesn't it suck that if the wind is 20 degrees the wrong direction Mornington goes sloppy that every spot needs the same wind or else it's just choppy. I love how the surf coast has so many evade that work in different winds but it's a shame for Mornington.

Superfish I am very happy with my life and surfing great waves on the surf coast, get real mate rip bowls aren't better keep staying in your Mornington bubble dream on. Also I don't surf bells there are so many other point breaks which are good with less people aswell especially on weekdays when you can be out with just 5 other blokes it's very fun don't worry mate Mornington is fun aswell

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superfish Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 4:22pm

I'm not from Mornington, I'm from the Surfcoast. Stay in Melbourne, back to the valley kook.

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superfish Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 4:29pm

You probably only like pointbreaks because they are easy to read and it makes you look semi-functional on a surfboard going straight. A good bank you have to read the ocean, use rips and it's where some of the thickest pits are.

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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 4:46pm

Vicsurfing mate nothing wrong with a good rip bowl. I hope you surf alone and don't do the whole kooky car pool text your buddies where to head behaviour. While your enjoying your long points others will be enjoying stand up barrels.

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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:14pm

I like point breaks Becuase they are long fun and there are so many sections to work with beach breaks are also fun never said I didn't like them just was comparing surf coast point breaks to sloppy 4-5ft reforms in Mornington. Some of the best waves in the world are point breaks what's the matter with having waves that are a easy read. It must suck being stuck in rip the whole time possibly the worst session I have ever heard. Stand up barrels wharfjunkie from chunky 4-5ft reforms hahaha yeah look no mate keep dreaming I no you wish you had point breaks to surf in Mornington don't worry mate

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superfish Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 7:06pm

I've surfed the best right point breaks in the world. Look at Safi (Raas Lefaa), Draculas ... cameras cannot capture how long and perfect these waves are. I've surfed straight perfect oily glass 8ft C Rocks by myself for over an hour with cars tooting when bombs were coming on sunrise with dolphins around. Any time in the ocean is enjoyable, you can have your easy waves to read with 40 other guys and us proficient surfers can have our empty, more difficult waves. These aren't just beachies but slabs ... more difficult, but in my opinion clawing into a double up and either getting malled or spat out is much more satisfying than surfing fun Winki with 40 other dudes doing a few cutties and a couple reos, maybe a cover up in the valley if youre lucky. Don't be an arrogant prick and shut down other people for liking someone different, I'm glad as fuck for the fact that not every surfer wants to do multiple cut backs on a wave cus when I inevitabely do surf Winki on a cold winters day some times it's a pretty mellow local crowd. Food for thought, hopefully we get waves soon so I don't have to keep on the interweb

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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:21pm

Vic I said theres nothing wrong with rip bowls they aren't sloppy waves pal. Oh and if you know where to look theres stand up pits mate. No one is bagging the points mate seems you got a chip on your shoulder thinking the surf coast is the start and finish of vicsurfing.

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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:24pm

So Vic you didn't answer my question do you carpool from Melb?

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
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Hako o hakonde ... Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:26pm

Check 3.30, junkie bowls can be more fun than a barrel of monkeys, for someone who calls himself Victoriasurfing1 you have no idea what surfing in vicco is about, and I could not be happier ;)))))

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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:45pm

If it's in rip and it's a reform look mate think stand up pits is a bit of stretch. I never said you were bagging point breaks I was saying that supervise was saying its bad if you have a wave which is a easy read. I don't have a chip on my shoudler so chill out. Na dont carpool mate would rather the line up Have the least amount of people as possible. Don't worry hako I do no what Vicco is about and its best on the surf coast. It's not just point breaks there's everything but that is just my opinion

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Wharfjunkie Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:43pm

Never said the stand up pits were in the rip bowl mate.

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
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Hako o hakonde ... Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:43pm

But everything you have posted here says you don't?

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Hako o hakonde ... Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:49pm

Is sheepdog using another username?

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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:53pm

Didn't you thought you implied it whoops sorry wharf I reckon there are stand up pits in Mornington but would be very rare.
Hako I have surfed Mornington have had some really fun sessions when it's 4ft but also had some sessions where it's looked good on forcast but then it ends up being shit. Guess that is surfing sometimes but morngion just a lot time the banks are bad tide wind it's just no good which is why I think surf coast is better but again just my opinion I am sure there are blokes which absolutely love Mornington there are some great days but it just doesn't happen often enough

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Victoriasurfing1 Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 5:54pm

You got me finally someone relised it's sheepdog you blokes are seriously get revved up

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greyhound Tuesday, 2 Aug 2016 at 7:08pm

For me it's simple. I live on the west, and love it autumn and winter,and crave for the east side beachies and PI in summer. Can't have it all can we....

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Gary G Wednesday, 3 Aug 2016 at 10:53am

Greyhound, you can have it all.

As a start, just change your name to 'Garyhound' and watch the opportunities start piling up in front of you. You can have that tip for free (just the tip though, if you want the full Gary experience you'll have to at least buy me dinner first)

As for VictoriaSurfing, if that is in fact your real name, maybe I'll cool the situation with a little anecdote: Sometimes Gary likes to wear short shorts. Sometimes he likes to wear really short shorts.

Whether you, like the majority of Gary's fans, prefer him in really short shorts or not, there are plenty of people that draw immense pleasure from a marginally longer trouser length.

No need to criticise the people that like Gary in short shorts, just because you like the excitement that comes from seeing Gary in really short shorts. The thrill you get from a possible testicular-based wardrobe malfunction is the same as the thrill others get from my leaving the top three inches of my thighs to the imagination.

In the same way, some like the surf coast and some like the peninsula. No need to start an unprovoked interwebs war.

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penmister Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 12:18am

Gary capper taking all the high marks.....

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goofyfoot Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 5:58am

Gazaaaaaa

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hatchman76 Friday, 5 Aug 2016 at 12:29pm

So as someone who has surfed the Morn Pen for over 20 years here is a couple of things I have learned

1) Swell is not a problem, plenty of that all year round
2) Winds and tides are the major factor in knowing where to surf and when.

So lets focus on point 2. thermalben is spot on about his comments on the hoax coast, the Mornington Peninsula a massive chunk of land with a highly diverse coastline. Some exposed, some sheltered and this is nowhere more prevalent than in the Flinders to Cape Schank stretch. There are heaps of places to surf in this area but the tides make a huge difference as to where is going to be working and where it isn't. Throw in the swell and the wind factor and some places will just not work while others just a km in either direction will be firing. And the next day it could be reversed. The general rule of thumb on winds is if it has southerly in it then a lot of places won't work well. But there are exceptions and it takes a fair bit of experience and local knowledge to know what those places are on a given wind direction/strength, swell and tide.

The Westernport Bay reefs are even more affected by the tides. The difference between incoming and outgoing can add another foot to the swell which means the same wind/swell conditions on a different day can totally change where you need to go. And then of course there is the occasional twice annual event where it is 12+ at Gunnamatta, howling a gale, but it's 6 foot at the Pines and Crunchies and you're surfing in a thunderstorm. Those days will give you a stoke that will last for weeks because it is so unlike what they are like most days of the year.

The Bass Strait beachies are in a constant state of change, the way the waves broke in the 90's is very different to now. If you want to catch some good waves at places like Gunnamatta you may be in for a bit of a walk some days. This part of the coast gets smashed by huge swells and this moves the sand all over the place. Some years at Gunna I'll surf first carpark in summer 9 times out of 10, other years it's been second carpark almost all the time. It all just depends. Also on places like Rye and Gunna most of it is unsurfable at low tide and especially if it's 5 foot or more as it is just closeouts and dumps, that's about as consistent as it gets in places like this. Mid to high though it gets much better.

Oh yeah others are right that the Torq surf coast is better. It is and I'm not just saying that as a MornPen local as I have made the trip over the other side of the bay plenty of times. Better reefs and more bowly and challenging waves. Downsides are more crowds and less size/power unless you head west of Cape Otway. If you know where to go on the MornPen though you can stay pretty happy. I certainly have

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Hako o hakonde ... Friday, 5 Aug 2016 at 6:04pm

Jeez, sounds all to hard to me hachy, think I'll stick to the surf coast.