Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, swell magnets to the east Sunday morning, Surf Coast later Tuesday, early Wednesday for keen surfers, Thursday

Recap

Poor conditions across both coasts yesterday with a possible variable wind around Torquay not really eventuating. The swell kicked though with good sets across both regions but very limited options.

Today conditions are much better and continuing to improve with variable tending light offshore winds and a strong new S/SW groundswell to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell is due to ease through the day as winds tend more NW and then variable, creating good conditions across most spots (as seen below).

This weekend (Jul 9 - 10)

This morning's S/SW groundswell is due to start easing this afternoon and we'll see a gradual drop in size right through the weekend.

A light NW wind will create clean conditions tomorrow on the Surf Coast and lumpy but workable waves to the east as well. Easing 2-3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, fading further Sunday from 1-2ft and 3ft respectively. A strengthening N/NE wind will favour locations east of Melbourne Sunday, probably blown out into the afternoon.

Next week onwards (Jul 11 onwards)

Monday will still be a low point and I wouldn't bother trying to surf at all, with no decent size due out of the west before dark. Strong N/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast but it'll be near flat most if not all of the day.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday however we'll see a very strong cold outbreak moving across the state. This system is quite dynamic and tricky to forecasts due to multiple embedded fetches.

Unfortunately the structure of this cold outbreak isn't as favourable as seen earlier in the week, with the main fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW-SW winds being projected mainly into South Australia and more on the edge of our swell window. This should generate moderate to large levels of W/SW groundswell for Wednesday, but this will be overidden by the front proper moving through Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday is expected to remain small most of the day with acute levels of mid-period westerly swell coming in at 2ft or so on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Into the afternoon though a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be projected through Bass Strait, kicking up a late increase in short-range swell likely reaching 3-5ft by dark on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Strong NW tending W'ly winds will favour the Surf Coast over locations east of Melbourne. Keep your expectations low though.

Larger amounts of W/SW tending SW groundswell are due through Wednesday though from the front pushing into us Tuesday afternoon, tending more S/SW while easing Thursday from a trailing fetch of S/SW gales.

Our models are over-forecasting the size for Wednesday as it struggles to separate the windswell and groundswell components and we're likely to see large surf in the 6ft range with 8-10ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, persisting most of the day and easing back from 4-6ft and 8ft respectively Thursday.

Winds on Wednesday aren't ideal with a fresh to strong W/SW'ly that may tend W/NW around Torquay early, but we'll confirm this Monday. Thursday will be better under NW offshores.

Longer term some good W/SW groundswell is due into the end of the week and next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!