Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th January)

Best Days: Sunday east of Melbourne, Monday and Tuesday both coasts, Wednesday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Small onshore waves yesterday morning ahead of a building windswell through the afternoon, ahead of a stronger groundswell this morning peaking at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula but with fresh to strong S'ly winds.

This weekend and next week (Jan 12 - 17)

Today's good pulse of SW groundswell was generated by an intense mid-latitude low pushing in across us, with it quickly tracking south-east and under Tassie yesterday.

We'll see the swell ease as a result, down from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow but with lingering E/SE winds. This will continue to create average conditions only for desperate surfers.

Sunday is the day to surf, but early small waves are expected ahead of a good kick in SW groundswell through the day.

Small 2ft to possibly 3ft sets are due around dawn on the Mornington Peninsula with a gradual increase through the day, reaching 4-5ft into the evening. The Surf Coast will be tiny early, building to 2ft to maybe 3ft on dark across swell magnets.

Morning NE-N/NE winds will create great conditions ahead of mid-late afternoon sea breezes.

The source of this groundswell is a broad and relatively strong polar frontal progression, but the embedded low that was due to generate stronger core winds isn't on the cards anymore, so we'll see a touch less size than forecast Wednesday.

A drop in size is due through Monday from 2ft+ across most breaks on the Surf Coast with 3ft sets at 13th Beach and other exposed breaks, with easing 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Great conditions are expected with local offshore winds ahead of a shallow onshore change mid-late afternoon.

Tuesday will be clean again with fresher local offshore winds persisting all day and small clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The outlook for the middle to end of next week has been a little all over the place this week, but we've now had an improvement in the polar frontal progression firing up south-west of WA.

This storm should produce a healthy fetch of pre-frontal and post-frontal gales, swinging ideally through our south-western swell window, generating a moderate sized SW groundswell for Thursday and Friday.

At this stage we're looking at good 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula for Thursday, followed by a secondary similar pulse Friday.

Conditions are a little unknown as a weakening mid-latitude low pushing in from the west brings with it an onshore change at some stage Thursday. With this uncertainty, we'll have a closer look on Monday. Have a great weekend!