Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th January)

Best Days: Saturday morning Surf Coast and selected spots east of Melbourne, Sunday and Monday mornings both coasts, dawn Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

Small average waves again yesterday morning with no real decent swell. A new inconsistent SW groundswell kicked late though and has offered some better 2ft sets across Torquay this morning, with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under lighter but persistent SW winds.

This weekend (Jan 9 - 10)

The weekend's looking much better than the week just gone with winds finally easing and tending variable across both coasts each morning.

A good new SW groundswell is also due to kick later today and peak tomorrow morning, with 3ft+ waves across most of the Surf Coast and 4ft bombs at swell magnets, while the Mornington Peninsula should see 6ft surf, with 8ft bombs at swell magnets, easing through the day.

Morning variable winds are likely to tend light offshore on the Surf Coast creating good conditions ahead of sea breezes.

The easing trend through Sunday should be softened a little by a small fetch of W/NW gales pushing through our south-western swell window today and early tomorrow, producing a reinforcing SW swell.

The Surf Coast should ease slowly from 2-3ft, with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula with variable winds again, tending E/NE during the morning east of Melbourne. This will see conditions improving through the morning, with a bit of morning sickness due early, cleanest before the sea breeze kicks in late morning.

Next week onwards (Jan 11 onwards)

Monday will be smaller but cleaner and straighter across both coasts with light local offshore winds and easing 2ft sets on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

An inconsistent long-range SW groundswell is still due to build through the day, but keep similar sized waves hitting both coasts into the afternoon as sea breezes kick in.

Into Tuesday early light winds are due to give into a shallow S/SW change as a weak surface trough moves, with small easing amounts of swell.

An afternoon kick in small SW swell is due, peaking Wednesday morning, generated by a tight and small mid-latitude pushing in from the Indian Ocean today and through the weekend.

Inconsistent but good 2-3ft sets should be seen across the Surf Coast later Tuesday and early Wednesday, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Light E/NE-NE winds should favour the Mornington Peninsula, but we'll review this Monday.

Longer term another tight mid-latitude low moving in from the Indian Ocean through next week is expected to deepen as it slowly becomes closer, producing at least a moderate to if not larger W/SW groundswell for later in the week. Have a check back here Monday for more on this and in the meantime, have a great weekend!