Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 30th December)

Best Days: Thursday

Recap

Light variable winds developed through the morning across both coasts yesterday with 2-3ft sets still at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast (2ft around Torquay) and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. The afternoon was poor as fresh to strong S'ly sea breezes kicked in.

Today a strong new W/SW groundswell has come in with light N/NE winds, with 3-4ft sets at exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Make the most of the current conditions as sea breezes will again kick up into the afternoon.

This week and weekend (Dec 31 – Jan 3)

Tomorrow will be great again across both coasts and straighter with a little more strength in the offshore wind (moderate and locally offshore). The Surf Coast should ease back from 3ft on the sets at exposed breaks, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with mid-late afternoon sea breezes now on the cards.

Unfortunately the window of variable winds Friday morning ahead of a gusty S'ly change has been cut short, with increasing onshore winds now due from around dawn. Therefore it's not worth the drive from Melbourne but could be worth a check at dawn if in the vicitinty of the coast.

Friday's onshore change will be linked to a surface trough moving in from the east, with it due to strengthen through the weekend while stalling off the Gippsland region, aiming strong SE to E/SE winds through Bass Strait.

While creating poor conditions across both coasts, building levels of SE windswell should also be seen across the Surf Coast, reaching 2-3ft later Saturday and offering larger waves building from 3ft to 3-5ft later Sunday.

The trough will remain near stationary into early next week while weakening slowly resulting in the windswell backing off to the 3ft range Monday but persisting into Wednesday morning.

Winds look to also remain poor and from the E/SE, leaving no decent options for a wave on either coast with no significant groundswells for the Mornington Peninsula.