Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd December)

Best Days: Thursday morning Surf Coast, Friday morning east of Melbourne, possibly Saturday morning east of Melbourne, Sunday and Monday mornings protected spots east of Melbourne

Recap

Tiny clean 1-1.5ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, building a touch further to 1-2ft through the day as strong W/NW winds limited the best conditions to protected spots. The Mornington Peninsula was poor and small with the onshore winds.

Today a new W/SW swell has come in as expected with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with an early W/NW'ly around Torquay. This has since shifted onshore, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.

This week and weekend (Dec 3 - 6)

Today's W/SW swell will ease back a touch into tomorrow, but a reinforcing W/SW pulse should keep 3ft+ sets hitting the Surf Coast and 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. This is being generated by a weaker trailing front behind the main system responsible for today's swell, with a drop Friday from 3ft and 4-6ft respectively due.

The Surf Coast will be the pick tomorrow with morning NW-W/NW offshores, shifting onshore late morning, while E/NE tending NE winds will favour the Mornington Peninsula Friday morning and beaches west of Melbourne before SE sea breezes kick in.

Saturday morning will be smaller again, but an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell is due to kick later in the day. The source of this swell is a small but intense low that formed in the Heard Island region but has since weakened while tracking east closer to us.

A very inconsistent pulse from 2ft through the morning, to 2ft+ is expected later in the day on the Surf Coast and from 3-4ft to 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds, as pointed out Monday are due to be an issue though with a light to moderate SE'ly more than likely, although there is a chance for an early E/NE'ly, we'll have to take one more last look at this Friday.

Sunday will be best in protected spots east of Melbourne with a fresh E'ly breeze, strengthening from the SE through the day, kicking up a weak windswell on the Surf Coast.

Next week onwards (Dec 7 onwards)

As touched on last update, a blocking pattern will be setup from this weekend and this will result in us relying on small to tiny background swell energy. Winds will be OK for swell magnets Monday and Tuesday mornings, but from then W'ly winds will leave no decent surfing options.

Therefore make the most of the coming days of surf.