Fun weekend across both coasts, Wednesday morning the pick next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 23rd October)
Best Days: Monday both coasts, Tuesday and Wednesday east of Melbourne
Recap
Poor conditions yesterday with a weak windswell through the morning and fresh onshore winds. A strong groundswell pushed in later in the day, and this has held this morning with good 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets on the Surf Coast and larger surf to the east. Conditions were average still though with a lingering onshore wind, but this should ease through the day, offering workable conditions west of Melbourne.
This weekend (Oct 24 – 25)
The weekend is looking fun across both coasts with a drop in swell back to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula under light NE winds east of Melbourne through the morning, and variable tending NE winds on the Surf Coast.
This will favour the beaches over the reefs, and the afternoon will become bumpy with SE sea breezes.
A reinforcing SW groundswell for Sunday morning has been upgraded a touch, with the polar low producing it being a touch stronger. We can now likely expect with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets across the Surf Coast through the morning, with 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, easing into the afternoon.
Winds will be great for both coasts with local offshores through the morning, tending NW into the afternoon on the Surf Coast (but possibly holding until later in the day on the Mornington Peninsula)
Next week onwards (Oct 26 onwards)
Monday will be poor with small amounts of swell and a strong onshore S/SW change at dawn, swinging S/SE through the day.
Our good pulse of S/SW groundswell for Tuesday is still on track, but so are the poor winds.
This swell will be produced by a vigorous polar frontal system pushing up towards Tassie through the weekend, aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our southern swell window.
A peak is due Tuesday to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but strong E/SE winds will create terrible conditions across most breaks while also kicking up 3ft or so of SE windswell across the Surf Coast through the day.
Conditions on Wednesday are looking better now as the surface trough responsible for Tuesday's poor winds drifts slightly south resulting in winds tending variable and likely locally offshore, before increasing from the S/SE through the afternoon.
Tuesday's swell should be easing from 3ft or so on the Surf Coast (mixed in with a peaky fading SE windswell) and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Onshore winds are expected to develop again into Thursday from the E/SE as a good new S/SW groundswell fills in.
A vigorous polar low is expected to develop south-southwest of WA through Monday and produce a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds along the polar shelf, producing a long-period S/SW groundswell for Thursday, peaking into the afternoon.
Size wise the Surf Coast should kick to 3-5ft, with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but with those poor winds.
Friday should become cleaner east of Melbourne as the swell eases under E/NE winds, but we'll review this again on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Pumping at 13th Beach this morning. How's these lines!
Looks a bit TOO straight Ben . Interesting that where I was , it was a little more mixed up . Which perhaps lends to the theory that the shallower offshore waters clean up a swell on there own , even without the help of refraction . As it was clearly closer to SSW than SW direction at both locales .
Alright so this is a genuinely serious question that needs a serious response and I am hoping that Craig or another person on here with an account that knows the surf coast well can respond. So my mate reckons that Kennet river is directly offshore on a SW wind which I think is completely wrong I think it is just protected a bit from south west winds so it still makes it peel down the point, but surly it's not offshore on a south westerly?
Anyone no the answer
Looks cross shore offshore in a SW from google
If you surfed there one day and the wind was SW, but the swell had a bit of SSE direction it would give more of a direct offshore look to the surf, however more WSW swell direction would be running the same direction as the wind, thus less offshore on the face of the waves. You could call the nearest tackle shop, surf shop or servo if you don't trust your mate
Or even better still, go have a look/see for yourself and make up your own mind rather than the Internet. Could turn into a great trip away. If your still in school pester your parents to take you there in the holidays and drag your mate along. If he is wrong he has to buy your choc milk and pie every day while your there, that will teach him to tell porkies
There maybe a spot nearby that would work better in that wind . Rumour has it that atleast one swellnet contributor has almost lost a car to incoming tide whilst bogged to the axels at insinuated beach .
Yep, that was me. Although I'd hardly call myself a 'Swellnet contributor'. Thanks for your kind words.
Nick.F your mate is indeed correct about the winds. Kennet river is tucked around a corner and a sw is in fact an offshore wind. Also uncle leroy dont comment on a beach you don't know. If you had ever been to Kennet you would find that it doesn't matter if it is a wsw swell as the wave anchors around the outer reef along the point which faces towards the ne. Seriously mate your input was like Richmond's trade period, in franks terms a piece of crap sausage roll. No one likes shit suasage rolls mate so lift your game.
Sounds like you've been doing too many big fat sausage rolls YaFluffa
Good luck with that
Yabazel if you read my first comment I actually don't think it's an offshore on a SW my mate does. The beach faces basically the same direction as Wye river which is offshore on a NW so I think my mate is wrong
You cant tell which winds are offshore from the maps, although a lot of the pointbreaks around that coast face SE and on the maps look like they'll be offshore on a NW .. they are offshore on anything with west in them, if you look at Lorne it looks like it's offshore on a NW on the maps but you can go there when it's southerly and it's still clean, its to do with the way the hills channel the wind i reckon .... weird place, take the Vline down for an onshore weekend and go to Wye if you're still at school, super rippable grommet right handers
I second the Vline advice. I once got the Vline and it was offshore. I didn't go to Kennet though, but I think the Vline advice is still valid.