Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st October)

Best Days: Surf Coast Friday for keen surfers, beaches both coasts Saturday morning, both coasts Sunday

Recap

Fun clean and easing 2ft sets across the Surf Coast yesterday with better 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds remained favourable all day (giving way to E'ly sea breezes on the Surf Coast).

Today the surf bottomed out with weak W/SW winds ahead of a stronger onshore change that is now pushing through. This change isn't as well aligned and as strong as forecast Monday, and this will result in only a small weak windswell developing into the afternoon.

This week and weekend (Oct 22 – 25)

With this afternoon's windswell being downgraded, tomorrow morning will also remain small and junky with sloppy 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula along with fresh S/SE winds.

The groundswell for later in the day is still on track with the Surf Coast due to build to an inconsistent 3-4ft with 6ft to possibly 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar if not slightly smaller size Friday. The easing trend will be halted by a reinforcing SW groundswell pulse into the afternoon though, produced by a trailing fetch of W/NW gales behind the original swell producing storm.

Now, winds on Friday were possibly becoming variable, and this is still a chance, but an outside one, with a lingering light to moderate S'ly likely across both coasts, tending more S/SW through the day but without much strength. This should still provide fun waves for keen surfers, mainly on the Surf Coast.

Into the weekend winds will improve and a fun pulse of SW groundswell is due through Sunday keeping both coasts topped up with plenty of swell. This will be produced by a relatively weak polar low forming to our south-west on Thursday and Friday, with it keeping fun 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

The models are still divergent on the winds for Saturday but we should see E/NE-NE offshores for Saturday morning, favouring the Mornington Peninsula as it eases from 5-6ft, with 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast, while Sunday should see offshore N/NE tending N'ly winds, favouring both coasts.

Next week onwards (Oct 24 onwards)

As touched on Monday, we're due to see a good S/SW groundswell early next week but winds look to spoil the party.

There's plenty of size attached to this swell, with a strong and powerful polar frontal system due to produce a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales, followed by stronger W/SW gales, producing a moderate to large S/SW groundswell. The swell may be seen late Monday but is due to peak Tuesday to a good 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will however be poor and strengthening from the E/SE as an inland surface trough deepens over the state. This will kick up similar sized amounts of windswell across the Surf Coast, creating terrible conditions.

Beyond this there's plenty more swell to come, but the trough is expected to dominate our local winds all of next week and possibly weekend from the E/SE. More on this Friday though.