Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 7th Octorber)

Best Days: Friday morning both coasts, possibly both coasts each morning over the weekend, Monday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Large strong W/SW groundswell yesterday to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under stiff morning offshores. Winds tended more W'ly into the afternoon ahead of a mid-late afternoon onshore change, but most had had their fill by then.

This morning onshore winds continued in the wake of the change with average 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and messy 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Oct 8 – 11)

Tomorrow will continue to provide plenty of surf across both coasts, but the only issue are the local winds.

As a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west, today's onshores are expected to swing moderate SE-E/SE creating generally average conditions.

A good new W/SW groundswell is due to build through the day, kicking hardest later, generated by a healthy and good fetch of W/NW gales moving in from under WA towards Tassie.

This should see the Surf Coast kick back to 3-4ft later in the day with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back from 3ft to occasionally 4ft and 6ft to sometimes 8ft respectively Friday morning.

Conditions will be much better Friday for a surf with light variable winds due across both coasts, tending N/NE on the Mornington Peninsula and likely light N/NW on the Surf Coast before SE sea breezes kick in.

Saturday's fluky pulse of S/SW groundswell has been upgraded a bit and is now due to come more from a SW direction.

This is due to the frontal system generating the swell now due to be strongest and best when generating its pre-frontal W/NW fetch, before dissipating when moving into our southern swell window.

We can expect the Surf Coast to persist around 2-3ft Saturday with 6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula, easing later in the day and then steadying through Sunday.

Winds are dicey though with a weak SE'ly due through Saturday and Sunday. There is however a good chance for periods of variable winds at times through each morning as is often seen with these funky troughy patterns, so don't totally write-off the weekend. We'll have a greater confidence of this occurring on Friday though.

Next week onwards (Oct 12 onwards)

A new pulse of W/SW swell is due on Monday from a good but small fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales swinging in from the Indian Ocean again and this should provide 2-3ft sets across the Surf Coast Monday morning and 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are looking dicey again with a deepening surface trough pushing in from the west, with a possible period of early W/NW winds, swinging S'ly through the day.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards with a couple of blocking highs set to dominate our swell windows, but we'll have more on this Friday.

Bells yesterday..