Surf Coast the pick, bigger and more consistent from Sunday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th June)
Best Days: Surf Coast every day over the coming period
Recap
Tiny to flat conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday morning with a small 1-2ft wave on the Mornington Peninsula.
A slight kick in swell was seen through the afternoon though as winds remained favourable, with 3-4ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula.
Today a better SW groundswell is on the build, coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula under N/NW winds. A further increase is due through the day as winds swing W/NW and then W/SW later in the afternoon.
This week and weekend (Jun 25 – 28)
This afternoon's kick in SW groundswell is due to ease back through tomorrow across both coasts, mixed in with a short-range W/SW swell from a weakening curt-off low currently pushing in from the west.
The Surf Coast should ease from the 3ft+ range with 5-6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under W/NW tending W/SW winds west of Melbourne and W'ly tending W/SW breezes to the east.
Through Friday some new W/SW groundswell is due to build generated by a broad fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales under the country today and tomorrow.
Both coasts are due to start slow Friday morning but then build to 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively during the afternoon under NW winds.
Later in the day the long-period fore-runners from the incredible frontal progression currently pushing through the Indian Ocean is due, but to no major size.
Through Saturday though we should see the first very inconsistent pulse of W/SW groundswell from the initial stages of the progression filling in.
The Surf Coast should build to a very infrequent 3-4ft through the day at swell magnets with 6ft to occasionally 8ft bombs on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh N/NW tending NW winds.
Sunday is now looking much better, not only because a stronger and slightly more consistent long-range W/SW groundswell is due, but also because there'll be a stronger, large long-period medium-range swell also in the mix during the afternoon.
The stronger long-range swell is currently being generated by a broad and expansive fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds between Heard Island and WA, with it due to build through Sunday and peak into the afternoon likely in the very inconsistent 4-5ft+ range on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
The low spawning off this progression though will aim a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds while racing through our swell window this evening, tomorrow and Saturday, producing a large kick in size, reaching 6-8ft on the Surf Coast mid-late afternoon with 10-12ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Unfortunately winds will swing onshore through the day Sunday with a weak change, with morning W/NW breezes and an afternoon W/SW'ly
Monday will be the day to surf as the mix of swells starts to ease from 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and the 8ft range on the Mornington Peninsula under W/NW tending lighter W/SW winds.
Longer term another moderate sized pulse of W/SW groundswell is due Tuesday from a broad fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales pushing under the country Sunday and Monday.
Winds for this swell look to be best on the Surf Coast, but we'll have a closer look at this, and another follow up swell for Thursday, on Friday.
Comments
Cheers Craig, once again some pretty detailed forecasting.
Pls send me your bank account details so your report on Friday and for the rest of the winter make it seem like staying in Melbourne a better alternative to chasing waves.
Oii Mackdog the payments are already working!!!
Just surfed a local on the ninch with 4 fellas, Instead of 35!
I had actually forgotten what it's like for everyone to share and take turns!!
happy days frofflords!
Oooh the joy when Swellnet calls it completely wrong with a very rare under prediction. Just finished a solid 3 hour sess at the Surf Coast's premier spot with only a handful of locals in the water. It wasn't 2-3ft and onshore as predicted by swellnet. 3-5ft and straight offshore. And without the swellnet frothers.
Don't get too excited about this week's forecast folks. Looks like they will over predict AGAIN.
My forecast had this exactly Monday..
"Our new SW groundswell for Wednesday is still on track with a distant polar low generating a fetch of SW gales while pushing slowly east over the weekend. The Surf Coast should build to an inconsistent 3-4ft through the afternoon, with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh to strong N/NW tending W/NW winds."
Yeah, but what about the one you did this morning?
"Wed 24 June 7:03am: Clean 2ft SW, Light NW, Mostly Fine 4/10
Dawn report: Nice and clean with light offshore winds, and a new swell building across the coast with inconsistent 2ft+ sets at the reefbreaks. Should be a fun morning of waves but get in early as a W/SW change is expected around lunchtime. Check back for the updated photo report around 8am."
I'm tipping that one kept the folks in Melbourne!!
That's a dawn report, and the swell was smaller this morning and on the build.
Just had a surf. Sounds pretty spot on to me Craig
And this one issued today:
"Today a better SW groundswell is on the build, coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula under N/NW winds. A further increase is due through the day as winds swing W/NW and then W/SW later in the afternoon."
It's pretty obvious that you dropped your sizes back and got the wind wrong in two reports/forecasts. I shouldn't complain, it was the least crowded it's been in weeks.
I just wish you wouldn't overcall it so much. Crowds just get insane on those days. I appreciate that forecasting is an inaccurate science, but you don't help matters by predicting exact sizes days out. You get way too excited about virtually buoy readings way out in the Indian Ocean. It doesn't take too much to knock the stuffing out of a swell en route to the surf coast. A big high tide, strong offshore, or easterly wind can all destroy a swell. Not too mention Cape Otway. When a big swell hits WA, there's plenty of things that can go wrong to ensure the Surf Coast gets nothing. I just don't think you've worked that out yet. Hence the large number of over predictions compared to under predictions.
What do you mean, I recapped this morning's reports and said it would be building through the day and with a possible late wind change.
No over forecasting at all with this swell?? I had building to 3-4ft and you said 3-5ft, an under-forecast if anything :/
Craig, I never said you over forecasted this swell. I actually said you under-forecasted it and the surf was very uncrowded. I've also said you over-forecast way more than you under-forcast.
As for 6-8ft on Sunday. That looks like a classic over-prediction especially when your predicting a rising swell through the high tide. Just kind of getting sick of people coming down for swells that don't live up to expectations and then filling the lineup with over hyped aggressive surfers.
Must of miss-read.
And late Sunday's swell isn't from over in the Indian Ocean I hope you realise. It's from a significant polar low pushing in from the west Friday and Saturday producing winds in the 45-55kt+ range. It's an easy 6ft+ groundswell at this stage.
I do realise the source of your predicted swell. Unfortunately It's got tons of west in it + the storm is moving pretty quickly through the swell window + the storm is is moving into deeper latitudes. None of which favours the Surf Coast. The time to get excited is when we get a dirty great slow moving low parked just off or even under Tasmania. Looks like the 4 foot line up is going to be filled with punters on 7 foot boards this sunday. Hey people, bring down your golf clubs and mountain bikes as well.
Hey VL
instead of sooking about the crowds at the most popular and well known wave in Victoria, how about you go looking for waves to yourself somewhere. long fucken coastline, plenty of waves
It is a long coastline goofy, but lets face it, once you go past the bells/winki area it gets quite fickle, alot of places west of there are dependent on sand and generally have more wind on them. Often a nice offshore at bells will have gale force offshores further west and if there is a south west change predicted well it will come in a lot earlier than the surf coast, so that would mean more driving for less surfable time in the water, do the math.
Yeah true. Just seems a bit pointless whinging about crowds at the most well known wave in vic. Maybe oz.
Like snapper being your local and complaining about crowds..
Are you VL too, shorris?
Na, not VL, Names Morris mate not shorris, why do some of you guys call me that?
Hi Crag
Don't go there , trust me i have ......
All the things that many guys have observed over the years in this region don't fit the the " science " of swell generation and travel .
Don't write off WSW groundswells for the surfcoast , in the right conditions ( tide flows , surface winds and swell period ) they can often look Sth of SW in direction . Sunday week was a classic example , although that was a small swell . I still think last Saturday was half in that boat , with the inco' sets being just that , whilst the dribble in between was from a seperate swell of a more SSW origin .
Had an awesome surf at one of the reef spots on the surf coast on low tide today and it was 3-4ft so I think the forcast notes were spot on. The dawn report this morning for Torquay that Vic Local was talking was also interesting as it said "Should be a fun morning of waves but get in early as a W/SW change is expected around lunchtime". Left at 2.30 and it was still clean and then on the way back the afternoon report came out at 3 and said light WNW winds so don't no who put the "W/SW change around lunchtime" in the dawn report but seems dodgy . Someone's defiantly trying to stop people from Melbourne coming down to the surf coast
Models earlier today had a WSW change in around lunch, BOM forecast also mentioned early change. Not sure why it didn't happen though.
I do work on BOM equipment from time to time . ! ;-)
Can you please advise me which board I would be best suited to surfing this weekend at Torquay, the surfing capital of Australia.
My quiver consists of a Hayden Shapes Hypto Krypto, Channel Islands Average Joe and I also have a JJF pyzel as I want to surf like him.
Also out of Bells beach and Winki were am I more likely to record longer rides on my Rip Curl GPS watch, I saw Mick Fanning use one and I thought that was super awesome.
FFaarrooouutt. Really!! Are we really talking conspiracies theories?? Craig's always on point or so close it doesn't matter. Keep up the good work buddy.
YA BLOODY TRIPPERS! I was in the drink from 2:30 till dark and it did go WSW or even SW, a couple times for about half an hour or so. So when I was surfing the bowl you guys must have been SMOKING a bowl If ya didn't notice it! It should show on Seabreeze or BOM.... Open your eyes before you open your mouth trippers! Glassy for most of da time with a few nice pulses. Crowd was good till the after work crew showed up and even then it wasn't that bad at all.
With the big swell coming from Sunday could anyone tell me a good option along the surf coast where the waves might not be so big? I am going to be honest and say that the conditions are a bit out of my comfort zone but would still love a surf. Lorne, I am guessing will be packed to the rafters so I was going to avoid it there, plus if the swell is good the locals there would want to be ripping it up. what about Point Roadknight?
How big will the swell be on Sunday for the Surf Coast?
Steve and Melb, the swell won't be bigger until later in the afternoon, so there should be plenty of decent options.
It's a hard one, but probably a really inconsistent 3-4ft, with the odd 5ft bomb at swell magnets most of the day, kicking to 6ft+ mid-late afternoon with 8ft bombs possible at swell magnets on dark.
Ok, so anywhere from three to eight foot. I was hoping for a more precise answer as I have to decide what board to bring down with me on the bus.
"I was hoping for a more precise answer".
OK then.
This cunt serious?
Craig will in hold its size into Monday?
The swell's due to peak overnight and then ease steadily into Monday but there should still be large sets on offer early.
Thanks.
How's the view up there on your high horse Vic Local? Craig you and the crew at Swellnet do a ripper job forecasting, don't worry about it "haters gunna hate".
View from the horse is fine thanks. Especially when my criticism of swell nets forecasting looks likely to be justified again this weekend. They are talking about a rapid rise in swell late Sunday when the tide is getting very high. Too much west, too much tide, storm track all wrong, etc etc. Giddy up hollowdays.
VL ,
You do realise the forecast doesn't just pertain to the 2kms of coast between Bells and Jan Juc .
.
GC ,
Best you pray that the swell forecast is under cooked . As once it gets close to heavy ( surf coast heavy , > than elsewhere ) , then the watchers outnumber the punters , by a large magnitude . ;-)
This is the perfect recipe for a circus;
Forecast a strong long period swell a week out
Combine it with favourable winds
Make sure it happens on a weekend
At the start of the school holidays
Let the Surf Coast Party Wave Festival begin!
Is mickfree coming?
MackDog, I'm thinking about coming down from Noosa with the Northerly to miss the Qld crowds. Do you think Winki is a good bet?
You're welcome First Point. I reckon you'd last 5 minutes before turning into an iceberg and heading back to the tropics.
VL, anything has to be better than surfing 2 foot Qld points ... ANYTHING
Get on it FirstPoint. It will have the same feel as a cyclone swell crowd, plenty of frothers and spectators. Hideous drop ins, guys whose ambition exceeds ability and some great rail surfers in there as well.
Just make sure you can time your paddle around the button. There is always a few punters getting dry docked with the sweep.
Tell all your mates. Let's see if winki can function with 100+ surfers.
Is mickfree coming???
Craig, do you know where we can find a midget (like the one from game of thrones) and a unicycle to add to the line up? Make for some good viewing from the winki pop lookout. That and a whole bunch of clowns will be better than a circus. I'll ask me mate flipper the dolphin and sammy the seal to come too
Justin,
I don't think you'll need to invite Flipper and Sammy to make it a proper circus. Swellnet may as well have sent written invitations to everyone in Melbourne who owns a surfboard saying "Swell Party next Weekend on the surf coast. No need to RSVP, just show up and jump in. Bring your friends. Everyone Welcome"
It's going to be so packed and sooooooooooooooooooooooo inconsistent. I'm Over it. In the unlikely event of getting a set by yourself, there's bound to be dozens of muppets all through the lineup bailing out on 4 footers. Seriously it's safer at 8-10ft than 4 foot these days.
While I share your frustration at crowds
VL,don't think your the only ones getting them in torquay.
Every time there's a hint of a swell on east coast there's
30-40 guys hassling over some shit little waves in westerport.
At least you've got quality on that side.
BTW why don't you put up your own forecast in comments page
And we can see who gets it right
There is an answer, a way, a technique, a method to dominate the sets at Uppers on even the most crowded days. Developed in the early 80's, and used successfully over many years. still in use today on occasion. I'm not telling but it exists. It's out there for those who seek.
Pete7.
"BTW why don't you put up your own forecast in comments page...?"
I'd prefer not tell everyone when it's going to be good. Happy to call BS when the pro-forecasters get a little excited.
Adam12, I know the secret to getting set waves at uppers and lowers. Get yourself an 8 ft board that's 4 inches thick and get to your feet before anyone else even starts to paddle for a 4 footer. Better yet, do it with 3-4 friends and make sure nothing, absolutely nothing gets through to the normal take off spot. Too many muppets doing this lately. I'm going to get a mal and a jet ski, and seek glorious retribution next time the tug boat mafia have a meeting at Winki.