Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd July)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday, early Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Recap

Monday's strong SW groundswell held well into yesterday with clean 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast most of the day under N'ly tending variable winds. The Mornington Peninsula offered great 4-5ft waves that dipped a touch into the afternoon.

A smaller reinforcing SW groundswell has kept 2ft+ surf hitting locations west of Melbourne this morning with 4ft sets to the east as winds continue to favour the beaches across both coasts.

This week and weekend (Jul 24 – 27)

The Mornington Peninsula will be the pick again through tomorrow and early Friday as today's small and inconsistent SW groundswell backs off over the coming days.

Fresh N/NE tending NE winds will provide clean conditions with easing 3-4ft waves tomorrow, while Friday should see early N/NE winds swing more N/NW into the afternoon, so try and surf before lunch for the cleanest conditions.

The start of the weekend will remain small with no major swell due and NW tending W/SW winds on Saturday will limit options. The Surf Coast will be clean but there isn't expected to be any size above 1-2ft.

Into Sunday though a new long-range W/SW groundswell should fill in, generated in our far western swell window in the Southern Indian Ocean through yesterday, today and tomorrow.

While this storm will be very strong, the extremely large distance between its source and our state will result in a lot of swell decay and huge loss in consistency.

Still, we should see a boost in size through Sunday, more into the afternoon with very inconsistent 2-3ft sets expected around Torquay. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 5-6ft+ later but conditions will be best to the west with a fresh and persistent NW breeze.

Next Monday onwards (Jul 28 onwards)

Sunday afternoon's W/SW groundswell should hold well into Monday morning, but some better and more consistent pulses of W/SW groundswell are due to over power this long-range energy from Monday afternoon onwards

These pulses should be generated as the westerly storm track focuses more towards WA and slowly edges through the Bight early next week under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

An initial pulse Monday afternoon should keep 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast before dropping back slowly through Tuesday. Into Wednesday though a stronger W/SW groundswell is due as a broad and vigorous front passes under WA Monday.

This should provide larger 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast into the afternoon with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will slowly strengthen from the NW through early next week, favouring the Surf Coast over the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term a larger SW groundswell is on the cards for Thursday/Friday next week but we'll talk more about this on Friday.