Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st July)

Best Days: Every morning over the coming days, more east of Melbourne from Thursday onwards

Recap

Saturday was average across the state with lingering onshores and a good easing swell from Friday, while Sunday was the pick of the weekend with morning offshores and a fun easing 2-3ft of swell across the Surf Coast.

Today an expected kick in good SW groundswell has come in right on cue with clean 3-4ft surf west of Melbourne and 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under light local offshores. The swell should ease a touch through the day as winds tend E/NE.

This week and weekend (Jul 21 – 27)

Today's swell should ease into this afternoon and further tomorrow from 2ft around Torquay and 2ft to occasionally 3ft at 13th Beach and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will play out similar to today with clean conditions across both coasts with local offshores that should tend variable into the afternoon, creating a full fun day of surfing.

Wednesday should see similar sized waves to Tuesday morning as a small to moderate sized and inconsistent SW groundswell fills in. Good conditions are again expected across both coasts through the morning with local offshore tending NE winds.

A slow drop in size is then due into the end of the week as morning N'ly winds favour locations east of Melbourne as the swell becomes smaller.

As touched on last update the models were divergent regarding the development of a strong frontal progression under the country and towards us through the end of the week, and unfortunately they settled with ECMWF's forecast of a weak and unsubstantial surface trough moving in slowly all week, effectively setting up a weak blocking pattern across our swell windows (right).

What this will result in is no real decent swell for us at all through the end of the week or into the start of the weekend.

What we'll have to rely on is long-range and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell energy, with the best pulse due through Sunday morning.

At this stage this pulse doesn't look to offer much above 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but N/NW tending NW winds should create workable conditions across both coasts.

Longer term we may see some better W/SW groundswell into next week, but we'll review this Wednesday.