Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 30th April)

Best Days: Thursday, early Friday for keen surfers, early Sunday on the Surf Coast, Monday

Recap

The surf started out tiny and clean across both coasts yesterday, but a new long-range and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell arrived through the day and built to an inconsistent 2-3ft across swell magnets late on the Surf Coast and in the 5ft range on the Mornington Peninsula. A strengthening W'ly created poor conditions west of Melbourne, but winds tended light W/NW on the Surf Coast, creating fun waves across most spots.

Today the swell is peaking at a slightly bigger 2-3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula but an early onshore change has pushed through, creating poor conditions.

This week and Saturday (Apr 30 – May 3)

Today's peak in long-range swell is mixed in with a similar sized short-range W/SW swell and both should ease off slowly through tomorrow from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds swing around to the NW during the morning and even more favourable from the N/NW into the afternoon. This will create clean conditions on the Surf Coast and improving waves on the Mornington Peninsula into the late afternoon.

Early Friday should still be clean on the Surf Coast and western end of the Mornington Peninsula with a strong N/NW'ly but the swell will be small. A strong SW change will also move through just before lunch, writing off the surf for the rest of the day.

Friday's change will be related to a strong polar front pushing up from below WA, which having already piggy backed on the tail of a tight but intense polar low, will aim a fetch of SW gales towards us. The front will break down while approaching the Bight this evening, leaving a medium to large sized SW groundswell in its wake.

This swell should build through Friday and peak Saturday in the 4ft range across most breaks on the Surf Coast, with 5ft sets at Bells/Winki and 13th Beach. The Mornington Peninsula should see 6-8ft surf but unfortunately winds will be poor with a strong S/SW wind across almost all locations. There's a very slim chance for early W'ly winds on the Surf Coast early, but it's not worth the drive from Melbourne.

Sunday onwards (May 4 onwards)

Sunday will continue to see plenty of swell with a reinforcing W/SW groundswell and mix of close-range S/SW windswell from a deepening Tasman Low off the East Coast. Winds are likely to improve though with an early W'ly more likely across the Surf Coast with 3-4ft of swell. The rest of the state will be poor with persistent fresh to strong SW winds.

Monday will be the cleanest day to surf west of Melbourne with an all day NW'ly, but the swell will be on a downwards trend from 2-3ft or so.

The outlook for Tuesday onwards is a little unsure, as the models are divergent on a how a relatively weak cold front moving in south of the Bight will deepen as it nears our state. Most of the models have it deepening into a tight low pressure system but it's alignment may be more north-south than east-west, limiting the size potential.

In any case this system is due to arrive through Tuesday next week and bring with it a moderate-large and stormy increase in SW-S/SW swell. To what size and with what winds will have to be reviewed on Friday.