Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow easing into the weekend with winds shifting E through NE
• Peak in  E/NE-NE swell Mon next week with a light/mod onshore flow expected
• Possible trough and offshore wind Tues- check back Mon for details
• Otherwise, back to NE winds and small E/NE swells for most of next week

(Brief notes today due to intermittent power and unstable communications caused by TC Alfred- normal transmission resumes Mon)

Recap

Solid swells from the E/NE due to the southern extent of TC Alfred generated 6ft+ (8ft sets) yesterday with quality hampered by nagging onshore SE winds. Size has eased today to 4-5ft and conditions have worsened as onshore winds shift more E’ly.

Plenty of chunky E/NE swell but conditions hampered by onshore winds

This weekend (Mar 8-9)

No material changed to weekend f/cast. A mod/fresh onshore SE tending E’ly flow through Sat will make a mess of most beaches. For the keen there will still be chunky 4-5ft surf early, slowly easing through the day. Lightest winds early but land breezes look unlikely so be prepared for more wind affected surf. Areas on the south coast may see better winds under weaker pressure gradients. 

Winds shift E/NE through NE on Sun, likely up to mod/fresh paces through the a’noon. E/NE swells ease a notch with some more local NE windswell building through the a’noon. All sources added up should see more 3-4ft surf of dubious quality. 

Next week (Mar 10 onwards)

Depending on the movement of Ex TC Alfred we’re highly likely at this stage to see an increased NE-E/NE flow along the NSW Coast early next week as the remnants of the system drift down the Northern Tablelands. 

If this occurs as modelled we’ll see a mod/fresh E/NE-NE flow through Mon and increased short period windswell from the same direction, likely pushing up into the 4ft range, possibly a notch bigger depending on how windspeeds pan out.

A small troughy circulation may even bud off the Central NSW Coast Tues, leading to light or even offshore winds. 

That looks to be short-lived with the system washing out and the wind flow returning to NE as reinforcing high pressure drifts towards New Zealand. 

A long E’ly trade belt looks established later next week with small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down to temperate NSW through the medium term.

Frontal activity looks strong but zonal late next week, better aimed at Pacific targets but there is chance we may see a trough develop late next weekend with a S’ly flow and potential for localised S swell. 

We’ll see how all that looks on Mon in more detail.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!