Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small fun E/NE-NE swells Tues with a S/SE winds easing Tues and tending NE
• More typical summer surf Wed/Thurs with a blend of E/NE and NE swells under NE winds
• Should see an increase in flukey E/NE cyclone swell from TC Rae later Thurs into Fri
• More E/NE swell filtering down from tropics into the weekend likely with size remaining modest
• Next week dependent on movement of TC Alfred, a small increase likely at this stage- stay tuned for updates 

Recap

Not much action to recap from the weekend, with Sat seeing small, mostly S angled swell to 1-2ft at S exposed breaks with clean morning conditions and a’noon NE seabreezes. Sunday was similar wind-wise with even smaller surf, although by the a’noon we did see some small NE windswell start to get whipped up. N’lies again this morning with some rideable NE windswell in the 2-3ft range and a S’ly change due in the morning hours (already across the Illawarra at 8am). The tropics is fully fired up at present, let’s take a look at the surf potential from the current pattern. 

Nothing exceptional but a few fun beachies on offer this morning

This week (Feb24-28)

A very long and broad tradewind fetch is anchored on a NW/SE axis by twin tropical cyclones. TC Alfred is meandering in the Coral Sea NE of Cairns, while TC Rae is NW of Fiji and moving south-south westwards. A broad high in the Tasman is supplying good support for these systems, with a new reinforcing high expected to move into the Tasman tomorrow and fulfil the same role. The trade-wind fetch is relatively robust and will be a long-lasting swell producer for the east coast, favouring sub-tropical areas for size. Confidence is low on the track for TC Alfred and thus it’s surf potential- a general slow southwards movement is expected which is favourable but we may still see a coastal crossing before the cyclone reaches it’s full potential as a surf generator. Much uncertainty still remains so stay tuned to notes and below the line comments through the week. 

In the short run, todays S’ly change leaves a lingering S-SE flow as the trough responsible for the change stalls out across the northern Hunter curve. By the evening winds should ease off and clock more E/SE’ly. We’ll see a small, surfable blend of E/NE tradeswell to 2 occ. 3ft and some minor S-SE swell to 2ft. If you aren’t too fussy about wave quality there should be a grovel on hand. 

Winds lay down on Wed with high odds of a morning land breeze, before winds tend light E/SE-E before clocking around to mod NE seabreezes. Very similar day surf-wise with a small, fun signal of E/NE swell hovering around the 2 occ. 3ft range and suggesting a few fun beachies. 

N’ly winds increase o/night Wed into Thurs as the high moves into the central Tasman and a trough approaches. Winds are still tricky to call on Thurs- we may see NW or even W-SW winds depending on the trough. Small local NE windswell to 2ft is likely, mixed with more E/NE swell in the  2ft range. We may see some longer period E/NE swell make landfall in the a’noon generated by TC Rae as it enters the swell window due S of Fiji later today (see below). It’s a very compact system and it needs to remain on that direct southwards track to generate swell. Given that, we could realistically expect some very inconsistent 3 occ. 4ft sets later Thurs into Fri. This is a cyclone swell but it is a flukey event so keep expectations pegged low. 

Mod/fresh N-N/NE winds on Fri before a late S’ly change under current modelling.  Looks like NE windswell will be dominant, with small swell trains from the tropics- a mix of very inconsistent longer period E/NE from TC Rae, easing, and mid period E/NE from tradewinds. All told, we are looking at another day of 2-3ft surf, with a few diamonds scattered in the rough.

This weekend (Mar 1-2)

Friday’s S’ly change lingers into Sat before winds clock around NE again. It’s likely we will see a Cat 2 or 3 TC sitting in the Coral Sea and another tropical low (possibly a TC) drifting SE from between Vanuatu and Fiji. Surf potential for both of these systems is still subject to low confidence, although the sub-tropics is much more likely to see a significant boost from TC Alfred at a minimum over the weekend. 

For the temperate region another day of blended swells with E/NE being dominant with a slight kick expected. Don’t get too attached to current wave model data as it’s subject to change depending what happens in the Coral Sea. Under all currently modelled outcomes it’s highly unlikely we’ll see surf in excess of 3ft in temperate NSW. 

Looks like another S’ly change pushing up the south to central NSW coast on Sun, potentially bringing some short range S’ly swell into the mix, up in the 3ft range as a provisional mark. We’ll continue to see E/NE swell trains from the tropics, nothing over 3ft at this stage but revisions are possible as we move through the week. 

Next week (Mar 3 onwards)

Everything depends on the movement of TC Alfred and the tropical low drifting into the South Pacific slot. 

EC has the system penetrating further south, with the southern extent of the wind field generating larger E/NE swells into temperate NSW. 

GFS has the system remaining further north, potentially with a CQ/Wide Bay crossing. That would see less headroom for surf potential for temperate areas. 

At this stage it’s probably most realistic to expect a modest increase in E/NE swell into the first week of autumn and hopefully dial upwards through the week. 

More E swell looks likely as the trade belt shows no sign of relaxing into the first week of March.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.