Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 19th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun top up of S'ly swell Thurs PM though a S'ly change will push in the morning, tending SE quickly
• Leftover S'ly swell Fri/Sat with early light winds tending SE then E/NE-NE in the a’noon
• Building NE swell Sat PM and Sun though with freshening NE winds
• Small fun E swells Mon/Tues with a S’ly change Mon, easing Tues
• More typical summer surf Wed/Thurs with a blend of E/NE and NE swells under NE winds
• Likely to see an increase in better quality E/NE swell late next week into the weekend as tropical low drifts down the Coral Sea- still low confidence this far out- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Strong and energetic surf yesterday, mostly from the S/SE, with some longer range E/NE swell in the mix. Size was mostly in the 3-5ft range with the Hunter and other S oriented coasts maxing out the size from the S with 5-6ft surf. Surf built into the 6ft+ range by nightfall as a solid pulse of S/SE swell filled in. Nice and clean early under W’ly winds before light onshore seabreezes. Size has eased a notch into this morning although still some 3-4ft surf with bigger sets on offer. Clean-ish condition on offer this morning with light winds (bit of bump from a lingering overnight onshore). Lots of fun waves around. 

A notch smaller today but still some nice waves around

This week (Feb 19 - 21)

The swell generating systems that provided our recent strong swells - the Tasman low and South Pacific low- are now out of the picture, having moved eastwards and dissipated so the trend is downwards as these duelling swells ease out. A weak front sliding under Tasmania and moving into the Tasman o/night into tomorrow will supply some minor S swell later this week. Following that, we’ll see a fallow period while we wait for the next round of Tradeswell to develop next week, possibly enhanced by tropical low pressure systems in the South Pacific and Coral Sea.

In the short run, no great change to the outlook from Mon. Today’s easing S/SE swell supplies some small leftovers in the 2 occ. 3ft range but increasingly inconsistent. Through the a’noon we’ll see some reinforcing energy from the frontal passage into the Tasman. Nothing major, but in the 3ft range at S facing beaches, a notch bigger up on the Hunter later in the a’noon. Early light land breezes will clock around SE’ly fairly early (between 7-9am) before strengthening too mod paces as a new high pressure ridge builds up the coast in the wake of the frontal passage.

That will see nagging SE winds into Fri, possibly with some SW component early on the Northern Beaches before winds clock around E through E/NE in the a’noon. Nothing special surf-wise with Thursdays S swell holding into Fri morning in the 2-3ft range before ebbing away during the day. 

This weekend (Feb 22 - 23)

Bland start to the weekend with easing swells all around- nothing over 2ft and most beaches offering minor 1-2ft waves. Early light winds from the NW will tend N/NE-NE at moderate paces with a grovel on hand for the keen.

By Sunday a new high in the Tasman will have generated a fairly wide coverage of SE-E/SE winds in the Tasman and Coral Seas, with a modest fetch in that wind field better aimed at Central NSW. That should see a minor increase in E-E/NE swell and NE windswell through the day after a small start. Summer style 1-2ft surf at first, building a notch into the 2 even occ. 3ft range during the day. Conditions will be mostly bumpy and lumpy with mod N tending NE winds across the region, reaching fresh paces south of Jervis Bay.

Next week (Feb 24 onwards)

By Mon next week we should see a series of tropical lows in the monsoon trough, with a low off the N. QLD coast, and one or two located SE of Fiji. We’ll one watching them closely for development and surf potential although at the moment the strongest winds are monsoonal NW winds and thus not of much use.

During that time frame the strong high in the Tasman will have set up a broad wind field through the Coral Seas and Northern Tasman which will supply some small E’ly swells next week, favouring the sub-tropics for most of that time. 

We’ll see small E’ly swells Mon across central NSW- nothing exceeding 2-3ft with light winds early before a trough brings a shallow S’ly change. 

That should generate minor short period S’ly windswell into the a’noon, and lingering into Tues along with SE wind which quickly clock around E through NE as the high moves into the Central Tasman.

From there we should see a typical summer pattern of NE winds and a small blend of E/NE and NE swells in the 2ft range through Wed and Thurs. 

The Fijian low (which may form a tropical cyclone) tracks SE early next week. We’ll update Fri and Mon but we may see a signal of longer period swell from this system as it moves through the swell window. Possibly adding some inconsistent 2-3ft sets into the mix late next week.

More reliable looks to be swell from the Coral Sea low (possible TC) which becomes slow moving next week, possibly on a slow S or SE track.

That’s likely to generate some bigger E’ly swell late next week and into the weekend, although confidence is still very low this far out. 

Pencil it in for now, and we’ll see how it’s looking on Fri.

Seeya then!