Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell easing Tues with easing S’ly winds (SW inshore early)
• Good quality E/NE-E swell  fills in Tues, peaks Wed with good winds, tails off Thurs
• Early light W-NW winds Wed, tending N/NE and freshening
• Slow tail off in E swell Thurs with light winds before a S-SE change, easing in the a’noon
• Small flush in S swell Fri PM with SW-S winds
• Small workable S swells Sat with light winds AM, tending NE in the PM
• Small leftovers Sun
• More small S swell early next week

Recap

A robust weekend once the S’ly change kicked in Sat. Only tiny to start on Sat morning with leftover NE windswell to 1-1.5ft, clean before the S’ly kicked up in the morning. Sunday was windy with fresh S’ly winds and a building S’ly swell (mostly short range windswell) kicking up to 5-6ft at exposed locations, smaller elsewhere. Still plenty of size on offer this morning from the S as a low pressure system hovers in the Tasman with exposed S facing beaches in the 6ft+ range and blown out, grading smaller into more sheltered locations. We should see the S’ly flow extend through the day at mod/fresh paces with windspeeds moderating around and after dark.

Raw and ragged as new S swell filled in yesterday

This week (Oct 21-25)

Not much change for the short run f/cast this week. The current low located near Lord Howe Island dissipates through today with easing winds along the Eastern Seaboard as a result. Weak pressure gradients then occupy the Tasman through the mid week, offering up good conditions as a long range E swell makes landfall. We’ll see another trough and more frontal activity through the second half of the week with a complex low pressure trough now looking weaker and more disjointed compared to Fridays model runs. In short, we’ll still see some S swell from this system, but nothing major.

In the short run we’ll see pressure gradient ease with light morning SW breezes, tending mod S’ly before ending up as light/variable E-SE breezes in the a’noon. Todays peak in short range S swell will ease off, leaving 4ft of swell, bigger sets on the Hunter and continuing to tail off through the day. As it tails off we’ll see sets from the E/NE-E fill in. From the midday session onwards we should see sets start to slowly show from 2ft into the 2-3ft range with the occ. bigger set.

E swell then peaks Wed, along with well-timed light morning breezes from the W-NW. There will be inconsistent, slow patches so factor that in as far as crowds go. Sets to 4ft with the occ. bigger pulse should provide some really fun waves when they come. N to NE breezes will freshen in the a’noon as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. A trough brings a light/variable flow extending up to Jervis Bay in the a’noon.

That trough moves northwards through Thurs bringing a S-SE flow, strongest early morning on the Illawarra before it washes out and leaves light/mod SE winds. E swell sets hang in there to 4ft early, tailing off through the day. 

By Fri, we’ll see another front push into the Tasman with the creation of another complex trough of low pressure (see below). Although it doesn’t form a huge closed low like Fridays forecast suggested we’ll still see some S swell created by a fetch off the SW flank of the low. Expect SW winds early tending to S-S/SE breezes at mod strength through the day. It’ll be a mop up day for E swell with the odd 2-3ft set through the morning, reinforced by some new S swell to 3ft in the a’noon. 

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

Much more subdued weekend now expected as the low pressure trough quickly weakens and dissipates. We should see workable S swell to 3-4ft Sat morning and light morning land breezes, tending N-NE in the a’noon. That would suggest a few fun waves at S facing beaches.

Not a great deal of action Sun. S swell fades out, with a few 2-3ft leftovers in the AM under light NW winds. We’ll see a freshening N-NE flow during the day as high pressure moves NE and a trough approaches from the W, possibly whipping up some rideable NE windswell. Nothing over 2-3ft and likely under 2ft.

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

Looks like a frontal system moving into the Tasman early next week brings SW-S winds Mon and a small flush of S swell Tues.

Further ahead and we’ll see some deep frontal activity below the continent with mostly zonal winds and aimed better across the Tasman at New Zealand targets. That should generate some small refracted S swell for our region later next week.

We’ll see how it looks as we move through the week.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.