Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long period S groundswell expected Tues/Wed but generally unfavourable winds for S facing beaches 
• Modest increase in S-S/SE swell Tues with onshore winds as low forms off Gippsland Coast
• Easing winds Wed with a fun mix of S/SE and SE swells
• Nice little kick in SE swell later Wed into Thurs with light winds
• Easing swells Fri
• Small S swell increase Sun, extending into Mon
• Now tracking a good quality E swell for early next week as tropical depression drifts southwards from Fiji later this week- check back Wed for latest revisions

Recap

Nothing special over the weekend with chunky S swells Sat in the 3-4 (occ. 5ft) range pretty well shredded by fresh S’ly winds. Size eased a notch Sun into the 3ft range but conditions remained fairly ordinary under as lingering onshore flow although we did see winds lay down and tend more NE in the a’noon which did open up a few S facing beaches for some fun waves. Small leftovers in the 2ft range today, a notch bigger on the Hunter, with a light NW-N flow expected to tend more N’ly and freshen through the day. 

Scrappy, unremarkable S swells over the weekend

This week (Oct 14-18)

We’ve still got a dynamic week ahead as a trough currently off the Gippsland coast moves NE and develops into a broad surface low, backed by a high currently SW of Tasmania. Overall though, the surf potential has been toned down as windspeeds remain limiting and the system dissipates as it lingers in the Tasman. Local winds also take a couple of days to improve. Surf now looks fun without being spectacular. A polar low passing to the south is sending long period S swells up the pipe. Further ahead we’ll be watching a developing tropical low near Fiji which looks to develop and track in a southerly direction through the wide open South Pacific swell window and send some E’ly swell our way next week. Details below. 

In the short run we’ll see the S’ly change in before dawn across most of the region - with just a possible brief period of NW breezes on the Hunter if the trough moves more sluggishly than forecast. Winds will quickly tend more S/SE through the morning, although they should stay moderate in strength. Not much for the morning with small leftovers blown out by the wind. We’ll see a little kick in new, short range S/SE swell along to 2-3ft with long period S swell, offering inconsistent 3-5ft sets. Local winds will be the problem so keep expectations pegged low as far as quality goes.

Pressure gradients ease off quickly o/night Tues into Wed so we’ll see light winds, likely land breezes, although there may still be a little lump and bump around. Long period S swells to 3-5ft (inconsistent sets!) along with S/SE swells to 2-3ft should offer up some fun options. We should see some better quality SE swell show later in the a’noon offering up the occ. 4ft set. With a light NE seabreeze expected S facing beaches and reefs should see fun waves, especially south of Jervis Bay.

Good winds expected for Thurs as light land breezes from the W-W/NW tend to light NE seabreezes in the a’noon. That should see widespread clean conditions for the morning and favourable winds for S facing beaches. SE swell looks to hold in the 3 occ. 4ft range depending on the evolution of the low through Tues. 

Easing swells into Fri. Small leftovers expected as the low will have dissipated. We should see 2 occ. 3ft surf for the morning with light winds, tending freshening N’ly in the a’noon as a complex inland low approaches from the W. That may generate some  NE windswell for the a’noon session. We’ll see how that fetch looks on Wed. Models are offering mixed messages there, but there is some potential for workable NE windswell developing during Fri. 

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

Looks like the approaching low moves SW-SE below Tasmania, into the weekend, driving a W’ly flow across the region. Under this scenario we’ll expect clean conditions for the morning at least under a light/mod offshore flow, possibly tending to weak seabreezes in the a’noon. No great size to the surf though with small leftovers from the NE (2ft) and S with NE windswell quickly trending downwards through the day.

With the low moving SE of Tasmania Sat we should see swell generating fetches out of Bass Strait and SE of Tasmania. Early SW winds look to tend light/mod SE through the day. We’ll finesse through the week but at this stage we should see some workable S swell to 2-3ft, bigger on the Hunter persist through the day.

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

High pressure moves NE into the Tasman next week. We should see a weakening ridge with light S’ly breezes Mon and some small S swells from the passage of the front and low over the weekend. This breezes should tend E-NE through the day.

The crux of the next swell is a southwards moving tropical depression later this week (see below). This is more of a late Summer, early Autumn feature as the West Pacific warm pool develops seasonal low pressure. At this stage the system moves slowly enough through the swell window to send some fun sized mid period E’ly swell right across the Eastern Seaboard. It should show late Sun into Mon across the sub-tropics, later Mon into Tues across temperate NSW. We’ll peg size for now in the 3-4ft range for SEQLD/NENSW with the occ. bigger set on offer and 3ft through temperate NSW with an occ. bigger set. 

Winds look to be from the N across Central/Southern NSW during this period although persistent troughiness in the Tasman may see light/variable winds or even a weak S-SE flow.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. 

Seeya then.