Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Leftover S swells Thurs AM with light winds freshening from the N during the day
• Tricky winds Fri- likely an early S’ly change, possibly tending to NE breezes in the a’noon
• Small S swells Fri
• Mod/fresh S’ly winds Sat, easing during Sun
• Mix of S swells Sat, mostly wind affected 
• Small mix of S swells Sun with onshore winds, tending to freshening NE winds in the a’noon
• Small S swells to start next week
• Long period S groundswell expected Tues/Wed next week 
• Dynamic outlook mid next week as trough deepens and surface low forms in Tasman-possible sizey S swell and NE swells both on the cards

Recap

We’ve seen some surf from the S, with windswell building to 3 occ. 4ft yesterday but poor conditions due to mod/fresh S’y winds. Not much improvement today with that mod S’ly flow still making a mess of most spots, tending SE then E as the day goes on and moderating. Size has remained in the 3-4ft range but sheltered spots are considerably smaller, making any type of rideable wave come at a premium today. Better quality S swell filling in this a’noon will be wind affected. 

Junk-o-rama

This week (Oct9-11)

High pressure is moving NE of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea, weakening and becoming mobile as it does so. That will see a N’ly pattern develop in the temperate regions of NSW with a trough in the north holding a more SE-E wind flow. The current S swell will ease through tomorrow with a pair of cold fronts passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri ahead of another trough and high pressure ridge. In short, we’ll see pulses of S swell but favourable winds will be short-lived. Next week looks dynamic with a troughy pattern possibly spawning a surface low off the Central/Southern NSW coast with uncertain surf potential. Let’s dive in.

In the short run todays S swell pulse lingers into tomorrow with 4ft sets at S facing breaks. That size will ease through the day. Winds should be more favourable, especially in more southern regions. Early NW breezes (more W’ly south of Jervis Bay) will tend mod N-N/NE in the a’noon and freshen further by dark. Should be a few tasty options tomorrow.

A trough brings a S’ly change Fri with a brief window of NW-W winds favouring the Hunter and Central Coast. Elsewhere it’ll be in early. The trough does look to stall or even wobble back to the south during the a’noon so we may see a’noon N-NE breezes develop, especially north of the Sydney basin. Tricky wind forecast notwithstanding there’ll be some small S swell to play with- in the 2 occ. 3ft range at S facing beaches easing further in the a’noon. 

This weekend (Oct 12-13)

We’ll see the trough move northwards Sat, with a front and high pressure ridge associated with it. That will bring plenty of S-S/SE wind and poor conditions for the most part. There’ll be some building S swell through Sat to 3 occ. 4ft but most of it will be low quality windswell and mid period S swell so keep expectations pegged very low.

Not much better for Sun. We will see winds lay down as the high pressure ridge moves north with a light, lingering SE-E/SE flow tending to freshening N/NE-NE breezes in the a’noon. Easing S’ly windswells from 3ft to 2ft or less through the day suggest a grovel for the keen. There will be some traces of longer period S swell in the mix with an occ. better quality set in the 2 occ. 3ft range, but few and far between.

Next week (Oct 14 onwards)

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week- nothing much to see there. That will bring a N’ly flow for Mon with a small blend of S and NE windswell to 2ft on the radar. 

From there things get more dynamic. The crux of it is a trough moving NE from Bass Strait which looks to rapidly deepen later Mon, possibly forming a broad surface low in the Tasman. Still lots of model divergence which suggests plenty of revision (possibly major!) ahead as the event gets closer. 

It’s possible we may see an increase in NE-E/NE swell through the middle part of next week from winds infeeding into the trough/low system.

Equally likely the low generates winds on the southern flank and we see a steep increase in S swells Tues/Wed from this fetch.

We’ll also see some long period S groundswell to 3 occ.4ft  in the mix during this time frame (Tues/Wed) with quality depending on how local winds pan out.

Pencil in some surf days mid next week if you have flexibility.

Check back in Fri and we’ll have a much clearer idea of how this event will play out as far as surf potential goes. 

Seeya then.