Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better pulse of south swell Thursday, easing Friday with mostly W’ly dominated winds
• Minor background E swells hold a faint signal from Thurs into early next week
• More small S swells from Bass Strait fetches Sun 
• Stronger S swell fills in Mon, peaking Tues next week with good winds
• Small for the rest of next week
• Possible pattern change with stronger fronts into the Tasman and more active swells by next weekend- check back Fri for the latest

Recap

Small spike in S swell yesterday saw some 2, occ.3ft surf at S swell magnets with morning W’ly winds tending NW-N/NW in the a’noon. That pulse has faded into today with tiny surf to 1-1.5ft across most of the f/cast region. Fresh to strong pre-frontal nor-westers today shift more W-W/SW later in the day with the passage of the front and a small trough moving up the NSW Coast.

Fun waves on the Hunter yesterday

This week (Aug28-30)

No change to the pattern with very strong, zonal frontal activity below the continent driving gale to severe gale force W’lies across the immediate Southern Ocean into Bass Strait and the Tasman. Weak, mobile high pressure is being pushed quickly into sub-tropical latitudes leading to N’ly episodes north of Coffs Harbour with with a more NW-W flow across temperate NSW. The gale force fetches out of Bass Strait are supplying small S’ly pulses favouring Central/Mid North NSW. A slow moving low in the South Pacific will supply some very inconsistent background E swell into the weekend and next week.

In the short run we’ll see the current severe gales out of Bass Strait (60kt gusts recorded at Hogan Island!) generate a stronger S swell for tomorrow with size to 2-3ft early, boosting during the day to 3-4ft at S swell magnets. These Bass Strait swells do tend to favour areas from Sydney northwards but this one should have broader coverage just due to the strength of the fetch. Early W-W/SW winds will clock around NW during the day (possibly some weak patches of NE breeze in there) so S facing beaches should be nice and clean.

That S swell spike eases through Fri so get in early for some 2-3ft leftovers which look to fade out by lunch-time. Pre-frontal NW winds should freshen though the day with best conditions early on a lighter W-W/NW flow.

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

Gales out of Bass Strait Sat will see mod W-NW winds Sat. We may see a late kick in new S swell (Sun is more likely) and models are showing small E swell from the South Pacific low. Keep your expectations pegged low for this source, travel distance will shave off most of the size and it will be very inconsistent, just showing a very slow 1-2ft signal that could offer a fun ride at a few spots. 

Sun will see another pulse in small refracted S swell to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches favouring Syd-Hunter region. Nice and clean again with NW to W/NW winds although they may be a little strong in open areas.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

Looks like a less zonal, better aligned fetch moving into the Tasman early next week (see below). Still with W’ly biased winds but they will have a S’ly component. Under current modelling we’d see fresh NW tending W’ly winds Mon, with winds shifting W/SW-SW as a front and low pass into the Tasman. We’ll finesse the timing and size Fri (EC still has a much more bullish outlook than GFS) but at this stage we’re looking at small surf to start Mon before an a’noon increase looks likely, possibly up into the 3ft range.

Tues looks the best day of the f/cast period with a much more solid S swell on offer, likely in the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches and early offshore breezes tending to a’noon NE seabreezes.

That swell looks to tail off quickly into Wed and we’re back to small surf for the rest of the week.

There is some suggestion of a pattern change by next weekend with a more favourably positioned long wave trough steering a stronger front into the Tasman and a supporting high moving at a more S’ly latitude. That’s too far off too have any confidence in but we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!