Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 26th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush of south swell Tuesday
• Better pulse of south swell Thursday, easing Friday
• Minor background E swells hold a faint signal from Thurs into early next week
• More small S swells from Bass Strait fetches Sun and early next week

Recap

A small weak blend of minor S and NE wind swells over the weekend with Sat in the 1-2ft range and similar for Sun with just a smidge more NE windswell. Conditions were OK, wind affected by N’lies on Sat and cleaner on Sun. This morning has seen swell sources dry up with a very low energy ocean in the 0.5-1ft range and NW winds, tending more W-W/SW during the day. Only for beginners and logs today.

Very small and weak today

This week (Aug26-30)

It’s not a great pattern for the East Coast with most of the swell generating winds under the continent and favouring southern states. The pattern of strong, zonal W’lies tied to polar lows and embedded cold fronts and weak mobile high pressure won’t offer much north of Seal Rocks but we will see some small S swells generated by gales out of Bass Strait this week with a mostly NW-W flow across southern NSW and NW-N in the sub-tropics. 

In the short run we’ll see those winds establish tomorrow, W’ly early tending NW even N/NW in the a’noon at mod paces. Gales out of Bass Strait today should generate a small flush of S swell tomorrow, typically showing better from Sydney northwards up to the Hunter. S facing beaches in this area should range from a low end of 2 occ. 3ft to the odd 4ft set on the Hunter. Don’t be surprised if areas south of Jervis Bay stay very small and weak.

Pre-frontal NW-W winds should get a kick along Wed as a stronger frontal system moves across Bass Strait with stronger gales to even strong gales forecast through that region (see below). Wed is likely to be tiny as we wait for the next swell to fill in.

That should show Thurs, a notch above Tuesday’s pulse but still favouring areas from Syd to the Hunter. We should see surf to 3-4ft across these S facing beaches with bigger sets likely across the Hunter curve. Basically W’ly winds on offer. We may see some W/SW in it as the front passes through, with a return to a more W’ly or W/NW’ly flow likely after lunch. Some minor energy from the E is possible from a broad E’ly fetch feeding into a trough SE of Fiji early this week. Very inconsistent and only offering up an occ. 2ft set but possibly worth watching out for if you have a primo small wave bank in your back pocket.

Easing swells Fri with some leftover S energy to 2 occ 3ft in the morning and minor background E swell to 2ft providing a small wave for the early with S swells dropping out during the day. W-W/NW winds should keep things nice and clean and we should see pre-frontal NW winds kick up again in the a’noon.

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

No change to the pattern over the weekend. Another blast of W’ly gales out of Bass Strait should provide a small kick in S swell Sun.

The trough near Fiji remains persistent this week, even forming a broad low s it slowly drifts Eastwards. That should hold a very slow and inconsistent occ. 2ft set across the weekend, possibly a rogue 3 footer if you are lucky. 

So basically tiny surf Sat with the occ 2ft set from the E and a small blend Sun with 2 occ.3ft sets from the S added to the mix. 

Brushed clean for the most part by W’ly dominated winds. There should be a small, rideable wave at magnets both days, with Sunday a notch more energy.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

We have some model divergence early next week with ECMWF suggesting a more energetic outlook as fronts penetrate deeper into the Tasman with a NE movement and better aligned winds in the fetch.

That would suggest moderate S swells from Tues.
GFS maintains a more zonal flow next week (see below), with more minor S swells on offer from Tues.

Background E swell from the South Pacific should hold a minor signal across open beaches.

Nothing major from from any of the models through next week so we’ll pencil in more minor S swells and NW winds and see how it looks as we move through the week.

Seeya Wed.