Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Quality S-S/SE groundswell showing later Tues and extending into Wed
• Fresh N’ly winds Tues, winds tending NW then W’ly on Wed
• Easing S/SE swells Thurs with light winds
• Possible small S swell this weekend
• Possible small NE windswell later Sat into Sun
• Not much on the radar for next week- a few flukey swell sources to watch, check back Wed for latest revisions

Recap

Game of two halves over the weekend with Sat seeing tiny surf and freshening W’ly winds. Sunday started small but by lunch-time a steep building trend in new S swell saw wave heights climb into the 4ft range at S exposed breaks under W-W/SW winds which tended SW-S by close of play. Overnight S’ly quarter winds have left a bit of bump and lump around this morning and we’ve seen surf ease back into the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks.

A bit of lump and bump but still some energy from the S after yesterdays pulse

This week (Aug 19-23)

The weekend's front and trough has cleared the coast, with the last vestiges of the trough tipping NENSW. That front brought a spike in S swell. A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some sideband S/SE groundswell due through the middle of this week. High pressure systems are looking weak and mobile as befits the changing seasons, tracking NE into the Tasman and bringing a N’ly flow across sub-tropical to temperate regions before a mid week trough sees winds shift W before another brief S’ly change. Winds quickly shift back to the N leading into the weekend.

In the short run we will see that N’ly flow develop through tomorrow with early NW winds clocking around N’ly and freshening during the day. The current S’ly swell will have some small leftovers for the morning session, in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches. We’ll see a strong new pulse of S-S/SE mid period groundswell fill in during the a’noon with sets to 4-5ft (possibly occ. 6ft at S facing reefs). If you can get out of the the wind there’ll be some good options around.

Similar size into Wed morning before an easing trend kicks in from late morning/early a’noon. Early winds will be mod/fresh N/NW-N (NW across the Northern beaches) before the approaching trough sees winds shift more NW through W/NW and eventually straight W’ly. That will clean up the easing groundswell wonderfully. Definitely worth pencilling in because we’ll see mostly small surf for the medium term.

A troughy areas sits just south of Sydney on Thurs, under current modelling with a mostly W’ly flow expected for the first half of the day. Winds look tricky through the a’noon and we may see patches of SE-NE wind develop around variances in the trough- although they should stay light.

Get in early for S/SE swell leftovers to 3ft on the sets, easing during the day. 

Not much on offer to end the working week. Reinforcing energy is weak and inconsistent so we’ll be looking at the odd 2ft set at S facing beaches. Nice light winds though early with land breezes tending to weak seabreezes in the a’noon.

This weekend (Aug 24-25)

Not a great deal of action on the radar for this weekend. A broad but weak and zonal front transits the Tasman from Fri (see below). At the moment wave models are not interested in much swell from this system and and we’re likely to see tiny surf Sat, with winds shifting N-NE and freshening in the a’noon. That may generate some minor NE windswell sidewinders but unlikely to reach 2ft.

Sun may see some minor S swell from the frontal passage in the Tasman. EC is slightly more bullish than GFS so a few 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches are a reasonable possibility if we get that upside outcome. Models are variant over winds with GFS suggesting a new trough will see winds shift NW-W while EC maintains a N’ly flow with some NE windswell in the mix. It won’t be anything major but we’ll fine-tune through the week. 

Next week (Aug 26 onwards)

No major swell sources on the radar to start next week. We’re likely to see another front/trough combo bring W’ly winds early next week with tiny surf expected.

A zonal flow below the Tasmania suggests tiny surf from the S.
There is a small low potentially forming near the South Island early next week which generate some workable S/SE swell into mid next week.

A long angled trough in the South Pacific is a distant swell source for the medium term but with no real size to it. 

We’ll see how these flukey swell sources shape up through the week, as well as a complex low gyre moving under the continent next week. 

That has potential for S swells as it enters the southern swell window late next week.

Check back Wed for the latest. 

Seeya then.